DaytonDailyNews.com

With a recession and other economic woes looming, analysts look for consumers to trim back on their holiday shopping, making it important for retailers to aggressively look for ways to boost their seasonal sales.

The holiday season usually accounts for a majority of most retailers' revenue. But this year's outlook — based on surveys and the current spate of sales reports from major retail chains — looks weak compared to a year ago.

According to a survey by Deloitte LLP, Ohio shoppers expect to spend $541 on gifts, compared to $592 a year ago. The survey found that the average shopper plans to buy 24 gifts, rather than 25 last year. The results come from an online poll of consumers between Sept. 26 and Oct. 7.

Ed Bentley, managing partner for Deloitte's Dayton office, said the continued drop in oil prices since the survey was conducted in September will put some extra money in consumers' pockets. Lower energy prices also could soften some of the pessimism reflected in the poll, he said. In addition, the increasing value of the dollar will make it cheaper for retailers to buy overseas products, he said.

However, some retailers, like Michael Karaman, president of James Free Jewelers, remain optimistic about the upcoming shopping season. Already this year, Karaman said he has seen sales climb by double digits compared to 2007. And, while he is unsure of the size of the increase, he said he expects holiday season revenues to grow through the end of the year.

The trick to doing well in a down market? Karaman said it comes down to such basics as prices, service and merchandise mix. That includes monitoring not only what's popular locally, but also nationally and internationally, he said.

"Don't try to dictate to (customers) what they want," he said. "You have to keep your eye on the market."

The Deloitte survey found a variety of factors — higher food and energy prices, lack of cash and worries about the economy — are causing consumers to cut their spending. Fourteen percent are cutting back because they still are paying off debt from last year's Christmas.

Consumers selected gift cards and gift certificates as the number one gift they plan to buy, nearly unchanged from a year ago. But they plan to buy fewer cards, the survey found, and spend less on them. On average, Ohio consumers expect to spend $23.61 per card, versus $30.84 a year ago.

Bentley suggests that retailers begin discounting merchandise and having sales earlier in the season. Sales give consumers a reason to come to the store, and having multiple sales will draw them back more times, Bentley said.

"I think you're going to see the sales begin before Black Friday," he said, referring to the day after Thanksgiving, traditionally considered the start of the holiday shopping season.

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Deloitte's survey

Where Ohioans will shop

66 percent of respondents said they plan to go to discount department stores such as Walmart, Kohl's or Target

39 percent will shop at traditional department stores — Macy's, Sears or Dillard's

37 percent said they will patronize restaurants and fast food establishments

34 percent will shop via Internet, excluding auction sites

How Ohioans will shop

84 percent will buy more products on sale

64 percent will buy more lower-priced items

63 percent will limit or consolidate shopping trips to save on gas

62 percent will buy fewer high-priced items

Source: Deloitte LLP