DaytonDailyNews.com

It was a scene Dave Hicks, Moraine city manager, probably will never forget.

Hicks and Mike Davis, Moraine economic development director, were at Miami Valley Cable Council offices on Alex Bell Road in Centerville early June 3 when Rick Wagoner, chairman and chief executive of General Motors Corp., announced that the automaker planned to close its Stroop Road plant.

Through a satellite feed, Hicks and Davis could hear and watch Wagoner's press conference. Davis was even able to speak with Wagoner about what prospects, if any, the plant may have had. "Mike did a good job of getting our question out. And Wagoner did a good job of responding. It was direct and conciliatory," Hicks said.

"Certainly, it wasn't what we wanted to hear," he added.

As "direct" as the decision and its explanation may have been, GM's action is anything but simple for a plant work force that numbered 4,000 workers as recently as 2005. A year ago, about 2,500 workers assembled mid-size SUVs like the Chevrolet TrailBlazer and the GMC Envoy across two shifts.

When the plant closes Dec. 23, some 1,100 remaining workers will walk out of its gates for the last time.

The forces that came together to close GM's last Dayton-area plant — high gas prices, a rough economy and a troubled company — seem straightforward enough. But the repercussions may last for years.

Gas prices

Anyone looking for reasons why General Motors is closing its last Dayton-area plant could go back to May 10, when gas prices were already about $3.60 a gallon locally.

They could go further, to early December 2007, when WardsAuto.com, an industry Web site, published a story predicting that GM would close its Moraine plant.

Now, of course, industry watchers know Wards was right. The company has set Dec. 23 for the plant's final day of production.

Wards based its 2007 forecast on the fact that GM had not assigned a new product to the assembly plant off Stroop Road. A GM spokesman at the time called the piece "speculation."

But the lack of a new product worried a lot of people — well before GM confirmed in June that it would close the plant.

Nearly two months after contract talks began between GM and the union representing Moraine workers, the International Union of Electronic Workers-Communication Workers of America, union negotiators tried to nail down a new vehicle.

David Healy, a former analyst with Burnham Securities, also posted a warning marker in late 2007, noting that if a plant doesn't have a new product assigned to it "two to three years out," that's usually trouble.

"Very much so, that's really the thinking of the company," Healy, now retired, said recently. "The other sign would be investing in tooling for new models. If there's none of that, the plant is in jeopardy."

Jim Rubenstein, a Miami University geography professor with a long interest in the auto industry, believes that, in hindsight, given GM's perilous condition, even if the automaker had not identified the plant for closure, the Moraine plant might have had only another year or two, anyway.

"It's mostly bad luck. I mean, at this point in the game, we don't even know if there will be a GM," Rubenstein said.

"We're seeing the end of GM as we know it, and Moraine is part of that," he added.

He thinks the fact that the Moraine plant was GM's only facility represented by the IUE-CWA was a factor, as well.

"The downsizing of GM and the Detroit Three has been going on with full consultation by the UAW (United Auto Workers) leadership," Rubenstein said.

The Moraine plant was an anomaly to begin with, being a former Frigidaire facility and the only GM non-UAW plant, Rubenstein said.

David Cole, chairman of the industry-funded Center for Automotive Research, said it was lighter crossover-type vehicles that truly killed the mid-size SUVs made in Moraine.

But looking out a few years, Cole sees better times ahead and stronger demand — if domestic automakers can survive this era.

If that happens, Cole believes a use might be found for existing facilities — even shuttered facilities, like Moraine, which Cole called "a high-capacity plant."

"That would be a desirable. And it's got a work force," he said.

Added Cole, "I don't think you're going to see them (GM) buy any new real estate to build a plant."

Timeline

Sept. 26, 2007: General Motors and the United Auto Workers announce a tentative contract agreement. Local GM workers wonder where the new contract leaves GM's Moraine plant, the automaker's only plant represented by the IUE-CWA.

Oct. 8: Talks begin between GM and leaders of the IUE-CWA. Among the union's chief concerns: A new product for the Moraine plant.

Dec. 1: WardsAuto.com publishes a story predicting that GM will close its Moraine plant. No source is cited, but the plant's lack of a new product is.

Dec. 12: The GM-Moraine plant announces that it will lay off 340 workers in the first half of 2008 due to a softening in demand for mid-size SUVs. GM said it plans to cut Moraine production from 58 SUVs an hour to 50.

Late March 2008: Dayton-area gas prices begin a steady rise from about $3.10 a gallon to about $4.10 in late June.

June 3: GM announces that it will close four plants, including Moraine, by 2010. The company doesn't give a specific closure date until Oct. 3.

Dec. 23: Scheduled day for the plant's closure.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2390 or tgnau@DaytonDailyNews.com.