Prof: Downturn 'just beginning'
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
As bad as the economic outlook was in the latest National Association for Business Economics survey, it likely would be much worse if the survey were conducted this week, said Robert Premus, Wright State University economics professor.
The NABE survey released Monday, Jan. 26, was conducted between Dec. 17 and Jan. 8. It depicts the worst business conditions since the survey began in 1982.
"We're in for quite a serious downturn," said Premus, who predicts an economic crisis unrivaled during the lives of the Baby Boomers and subsequent generations. "It's really just beginning."
A federal stimulus package is the best hope of containing the downturn's severity and avoiding an unemployment rate of more than 10 percent, Premus said.
Even if a turnaround comes midyear, pay and unemployment will lag and consumers aren't likely to feel much better about the economy until 2010, he said.
"This is psychological," he said. "This is outside of economics now."
The Dayton region has suffered more than the nation as a whole during downturns in the past 15 years, he said. The region's recoveries also have lagged, in part because it hasn't snagged its share of high-growth industries.
"I think the pattern has been that we'll be impacted more severely (by the current recession) than the nation" as a whole, he said.
Contact this reporter at (937) 225-7457 or bsutherly@DaytonDailyNews.com.
