http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ This blog is operated by Martin Gottlieb, whose day job is with the editorial page of the Dayton Daily News. The main idea here is that the media and the media manipulators are not important players in American elections, and that this is demonstrated by the fact that presidential election outcomes can be predicted before the campaigns even start. Gottlieb is the author of "Campaigns Don't Count: How the Media Get American Politics All Wrong." (See www.campaignsdontcount.com.) That book proceeds from the work of Allan J. Lichtman, author of "The 13 Keys to the Presidency." Perhaps the best introduction to the blog is in the first posts, dated Oct. 5, 2007. en-us mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com 2008-12-03T21:14:53-05:00 hourly 1 2000-01-01T12:00+00:00 http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/12/03/georgia_we_knew_it_all_along_t.html I really should have made this post before the George Senate election was decided. That would have been in keeping with the spirit of the blog: call it beforehand, publicly, or shut up. Nevertheless, I belatedly say: Anybody who is... 9239703@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-12-03T21:14:53-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/11/06/next_question.html Anybody check out how the keys look for 12?... 8647103@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008-11-06T21:45:36-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/10/10/meltdown_schmeltdown.html (This kind of expanding on a couple of posts by Tom Q in the string below this one.) If this blog had audio, the sound you would be hearing would be the gnashing of my teeth. Maybe I should be... 7917203@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-10-10T18:34:24-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/09/16/lichtman_logic_triumphs.html Good points being made here, in the string below. Glad to see it. I’d like to address some of them, in due course. For now, though, what’s really on my mind is this (a point I just made in my... 7317503@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-09-16T17:55:37-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/09/12/where_we_stand.html This post came in from Tom Q., for the string below this one. But I think it merits its own string. (It also merits paragraph separations, which are not possible in responses to posts.) I will respond. He says: Okay,... 7201003@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-09-12T11:42:01-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/09/06/lichtman_on_charisma_and_more.html The Washington Post had an article about Lichtman in late August (by the science writer, not a political guy), and then Lichtman did a chat session. Rather than list interminable urls here, I think I will suggest that you go... 6617903@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-09-06T00:03:38-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/08/19/obama_charisma_star_still_risi.html Let’s start this thread with a comment that came in on another string. You’ll see why I wanted to do that. First, however, a word: This blog is monitored. I decide which comments get posted. I am not posting comments... 6148003@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-08-19T18:10:58-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/06/20/obama_and_ohio_race_comes_down.html Here’s a piece that I just wrote on my day job with the Dayton Daily News. It kind of enlarges on a subject already touched on here. Starts now: This column has already done everything possible to make clear that... 4754403@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008-06-20T14:27:55-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/06/06/the_factor_to_watch_race.html Where we stand as Obama wraps it up: This post is partly in response to a comment posted on the string below. A writer suggests that the Lichtman keys are missing the intensity of the Democratic split this year. She... 4434703@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-06-06T19:29:53-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/05/07/an_ally_really.html I’ve taken so ludicrously, shamefully long to respond to a couple of posts (DAY JOBS!!) that I have decided to do so in new posts, rather than hope people are still checking for comments after old posts. I’ll copy the... 3698803@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-05-07T16:02:45-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/04/24/great_democratic_divide_is_no.html This is a column I put out on the wires at the beginning of April, before Pennsylvania. It still stands (except that I just added the sentence about Eisenhower): Under the prevailing rules of opinion journalism, if you have a... 3376403@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-04-24T17:37:14-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/04/18/debate_questions_reflect_wrong.html And we’re back. I took some time off, because this blog is really about the general election, not the primaries. But now we’re close enough to the general to start taking note of stuff. As this is written, the hot... 3228803@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-04-18T18:16:15-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/02/17/can_conservatives_hurt_mccain.html The view is widespread that John McCain has a conservatives problem that could be fatal. Reporter Matt Stearns writing a typical an analysis for McClatchy: “Though such ‘maverick’ stances made McCain a darling of the media and independent voters, it’s... 1666902@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-02-17T20:02:43-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/01/18/a_bipartisan_antirecession_bil.html To anybody who’s focused on the Lichtman “keys,” all this talk about a bipartisan stimulus package to avoid a recession is interesting. After all, the keys say that a recession during an election year would be a good thing for... 1012302@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008 presidential race 2008-01-18T13:40:18-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/entries/2008/01/14/balz_campaign_counted_of_cours.html What’s that phrase? “Teachable moment”? When a certain 16-year-old star of a wholesome television program turned up pregnant a few weeks ago, pundits talked about this being perhaps a “teachable moment.” Other pundits disagreed, because, after all, undoing the harm... 887302@http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/campaignsdontcount/ 2008-01-14T00:01:13-04:00 mgottlieb@daytondailynews.com