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Hall of Fame baseball writer Hal McCoy has retired from the Dayton Daily News after covering the Cincinnati Reds for 37 years. Hal's blog, though, will continue to be a must-read for Reds fans. He'll share his thoughts on the team this season and will file updates from Great American Ball Park. You also can catch Hal in print every Sunday in his popular Ask Hal columnHome > Blogs > The Real McCoy | Cincinnati Reds baseball news > Archives > 2008 > July > 24
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Don’t trade starting pitchers
Worst trade the Cincinnati Reds ever made during my 36 years on the beat: outfielder Paul O’Neill to the New York Yankees for outfielder Roberto Kelly.
Kelly was noteworthy only in that he was from Panama, and to make this deal equal the Yankee would have had to have thrown the Panama Canal into the deal.
We all know what became of O’Neill (superstar stud for the pin-stripers) and who knows what became of Kelly?
That trade was made because of raw nerves between manager Lou Piniella and O’Neill. Piniella thought a big boy like O’Neill should hit for more power and wanted him to hit more home runs. O’Neill resisted. He liked hitting .300 and hitting doubles.
I’ll never forget the day I was standing with Piniella behind the batting cage and O’Neill was hitting — spraying line drives. “Look at that. Big O’Neill. Big O’Neill my a**,” said Piniella, loud enough for O’Neill to hear.
Shortly after that, O’Neill was gone.
I bring this up because the trade deadline approaches and it is Be Careful Time.
There wasn’t a whole lot former GM Jim Bowden did that I liked, but there was a sign in his office with three words on it: “Pitching, pitching, pitching.”
The game starts and ends with pitching. And I loved the line pitcher Bob Gibson once threw out about his catcher, Tim McCarver: “The only thing he knew about pitching was that he couldn’t hit it.”
Anyway, there is no doubt there is interest in Bronson Arroyo. The New York Yankees, for one. Maybe back to Boston. Colorado is even interested, if the Reds will chew up some of the $25 million he’ll be owed in 2009 and 2010.
I say be careful. Pitching, especially starting pitching, is the rarest commodity on the baseball market. The cliche is true: “You can never get enough pitching.”
When Arroyo made his impassioned plea Wednesday to stay with the Reds, he listed the starting pitchers owned by the Reds with bright futures — himself, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson.
As somebody on this blog pointed out, “That’s six starters. They need five. Trade Arroyo.”
Does anybody out there really believe all of them are “for sures.”
I wouldn’t trade Volquez, but I’m not yet convinced after only a half a season. His last couple of starts were shaky and he is probably getting tired. He pitched winter ball, he came to spring camp under a lot of pressure to win a spot in the rotation and was pitching as if it was the regular season from his first spring start. Now he has thrown 122 inning this year.
Be careful.
Cueto is only 22 and has great stuff — but he is 7-9 with an ERA near five and has a flaw of throwing too many pitches. Will he get better? Remains to be seen.
Be careful.
Bailey, 22, has thrown two straight decent games and maybe he has turned the corner. Some people want to trade him. Is he close to becoming what the Reds thought when they drafted him No. 1? He appears in a better mental state and more receptive to guidance than he was last year or last spring. Is he what they thought?
Be careful.
Thompson, on the DL right now in Louisville, is only 22 and scouts say he has a lot to learn and isn’t major-league ready. He does, though, have promise.
Arroyo and Harang have shown they can pitch in the majors, they have the experience, and every team needs sound experience in the rotation. Arroyo has been up-and-down and is on a five-game winning streak.
You know another thing I like about Arroyo? He isn’t just a pitcher, as are most pitchers. He is a baseball player. He can bunt, field his position, run the bases (he is used as a pinch-runner at times) and can hit a little bit.
Anyway, the point here is that if I’m Walt Jocketty, I don’t trade starting pitching - unless it is somebody like Eric Milton, who was never suited to Great American Small Park. And I can’t fault the trade of Kyle Lohse - he was 9-12 with a 4.62 ERA at the time of his trade last year.
And the back of his bubblegum card is not stuffed with glossy numbers. But that, too, is an example of, “You never know,” with pitching. He is tearing it up in St. Louis and to me it is why you try to preserve as much starting pitching as possible.
The Reds have three 22-year-olds on the fast track - Cueto, Bailey, Thompson. Will all three be legitimate stars? Maybe. But doubtful. If one turns into a consistent year-by-year winner, that’s good. If two make it, that’s great. If three make it - well, don’t count on it.
The point, though? Don’t trade good pitching prospects. Of course, the Texas Rangers might question that, getting Josh Hamilton for Volquez. Both teams are happy with that one - and should be.
Could the Reds be that lucky to get a player of that caliber for one of their starters? Doubt it.
Everybody has been on the Reds for years and years and years (rightfully so) because they never develop a starting pitcher - Tom Browning being the last of any note and he was pitching before a lot of you were born.
Now they have three 22-year-olds out of their own system. Keep ‘em. Keep ‘em all. But be careful. Don’t trade Arroyo or Harang (or even Josh Fogg) just yet. It’s too early to tell on what is now The Little Three that could become The Big Three.
Two more years for those three kids and then a decision can be made. By then the contracts for Arroyo and Harang will be up and good decisions can be made.
So who does Jocketty trade - if he can.
Check in tomorrow.
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