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Monday, February 19, 2007
Oscar Predictions: The Actors
Behold Oscar fans! The end of the wait is nigh!
That means that the Oscars are at 8 p.m. this Sunday on ABC, so it’s time to roll out my predictions. Be advised I once placed sixth in the nation in a predicting contest. But also be advised that I didn’t have “Silence of the Lambs” taking home any major Oscars. So make of my record what you will.
I’ll be doing this all week on the blog, with this schedule:
TODAY: The Actors
TUESDAY: The Actresses
WEDNESDAY: The Directors
THURSDAY: The Pictures
FRIDAY Everything else, and an overall wrap
SUNDAY: Live-blogging the Oscars.
So how will the men fare? Here’s what I see. Nominees are listed from most to least likely to win.
BEST ACTOR
- Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland.
- Peter O’ Toole, Venus
- Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
- Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Gosling’s honor is simply being nominated. He has almost no chance here, considering that the Independent Spirit Awards are likely to reward him. But he will be back someday.
Poor Leo. Had he been nominated for “The Departed” as he should have been, he would have stood a chance of winning. Alas, he’s up for his strong work in a film that is not so loved. He’ll have to wait for his shot another day.
I cannot rule out Will Smith, as some have. His strong work combined his effortless charm with real dramatic weight, and his movie is well liked. However, he’s never built momentum, so my guess is that the heavier competition here will ace him out.
Peter O’Toole is a legend who has never won in eight tries, and the Academy MIGHT be in the mood to give him a competitive award after they tossed him an honorary statue, which he rather begrudgingly accepted in 2003. However, his movie is rather slight, except for his acting, so I’m thinking O’Toole will have to be content with that honorary award.
That leaves Forest Whitaker, who has won just about every precursor award under the sun, and deservingly so, for making his take on dictator Idi Amin charismatic, funny and finally monstrous. The Academy loves these sort of blustery, transformative performances, and Whitaker will get his just reward.
WILL/SHOULD WIN: Forest Whitaker
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
- Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
- Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
- Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
- Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Only Hounsou has absolutely no chance, which is OK by me. He’s a great actor, but this performance was all easy bait: lots of screaming and glowering. He’ll be back in more deserving roles.
I personally would love to see Wahlberg take home the award for delivering so many withering putdowns with such aplomb. He was the most fun to watch from this group. He has an outside shot of taking the prize home, but I think some people believe that all Wahlberg did was deliver dialogue that was already great on the page.
Haley’s comeback from obscurity is a terrific story for this Bad News Bear, giving him almost enough clout to win on that basis alone. And he’s been winningly humble in the pre-show publicity. As it happens, he’s also great as a creepy yet sympathetic pedophile in the film. He may yet win, but my hunch is the nomination is his award.
Most people have Murphy leading this supporting race, and some even have called him a lock to win. I don’t agree. He may very well win this award, and I give him major props for leaving much of his usual baggage behind in this role. That doesn’t make him a lock. Yes, he’s won a number of awards for playing a fiery and eventually drug-addled singer. Actors like Murphy (witness his SAG win) but he has alienated many a Hollywood bigwig over the years with his prima donna attitude, and I think many people would rather not reward him. As for the backslide into the crudity of “Norbit” right before the awards, I can’t say for sure how much impact that has, but it does more harm than good.
That leaves Alan Arkin, whose role as the ribald grandpa in “Little Miss Sunshine” tickled many. The buzz from the film as a surprise winner in previous awards, and Arkin’s status as a longstanding, well-liked pro greatly help him.
SHOULD WIN: Mark Wahlberg
WILL WIN: Alan Arkin
Tomorrow I forecast for the women. But first, tell me which men you think will win - and who should.
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