Fairborn commencement
Badin graduation
Division I regional track finals
Home > Blogs > Ohio politics > Archives > 2012 > January > 04 > Entry
Santorum doesn’t have money, organization to compete in Ohio, experts, party leaders say
By Lynn Hulsey and Jeremy P. Kelley Staff Writers
Rick Santorum’s surge to second place in Iowa is unlikely to lead him to front runner status in the Republican presidential primary because of his lack of campaign resources and because Iowa caucus voters are not reflective of the party as a whole, according to Ohio and national political experts.
“I’m thrilled that good old-fashioned grassroots campaigning still is a cornerstone of the political process,” said Montgomery County Republican Party Chairman Greg Gantt. “With that said, that doesn’t get you across the line in a national presidential election. From what I see he’s really deficient in organization and funds in other states and it will be a challenge for him.”
Montgomery County Democratic Party Chairman Mark Owens called Santorum “the flavor of the month.”
“It probably says as much about Mitt Romney as Rick Santorum,” said Owens. “He can’t close the deal. They keep coming up with all these conservative challengers.”
Santorum came in second by 8 votes to Mitt Romney in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses - with the two each getting nearly 25 percent of the 122,255 total votes cast in the caucuses. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas was third with 21.4 percent followed by Newt Gingrich, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, U.S. Rep. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota, who on Wednesday ended her campaign, and Jon Huntsman with less than 1 percent.
“I think the two biggest stories are Santorum’s finish and Gingrich’s finish,” said Mark Caleb Smith, director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. “It really calls into question (Gingrich’s) viability as a candidate.”
Smith anticipates there won’t be many Republican choices left by the time Ohio voters cast ballots on March 6 but said if Santorum can boost his fundraising there may still be a Romey-Santorum matchup by then.
Santorum supporters like Phil Burress of Cincinnati-based Citizens for Community Values applauded his success in organizing evangelical, conservative voters.
“He’s got the right message and he’s got the credentials to be president. There’s no doubt about it,” said Burress. “I believe maybe the (family) value voters are going to be more energized this year.”
Burress knows Santorum personally after serving with him on the board of Family Research Council Action, a conservative lobbying group.
“He will fall on his sword before he compromises his principles,” said Burress. “I think that is the one issue between him and Gov. Romney is that Gov. Romney has changed his position on many issues and Rick has not.”
Conservatives are not sold on Romney but he will win the nomination because “he has the organization and he’s raising money hand over fist,” said Rob Scott, president of the Dayton Tea Party.
“Any of them are going to be better than (President Barack) Obama,” said Scott. “They certainly will pay more attention to the Tea Party platform than our current president.”
Spokespersons for the campaigns of Romney and Santorum could not be reached. Santorum’s one-page website listed no press contact and the person answering the phone at the number listed said it was a donation call center and had no campaign contact information.
Political analysts said that is a perfect example of the lack of organization hobbling the Santorum campaign. He didn’t submit a single signature to get on the ballot in Virginia where he lives, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“That is the sign of a seriously deficient campaign and it’s almost unheard of,” said Sabato. “You cannot beat somebody like Mitt Romney, who has been running for five years consistently, with a poor organization.”
William J. Green a Pittsburgh-based political analyst who has been watching Santorum since his days as a congressman and senator representing Pennsylvania said he is great at door-to-door campaigning but that won’t be enough to beat Romney for the nomination.
“It’s the second time around (for Romney). It’s his turn, as it is known in the Republican Party,” said Green. “You have to have an organization and the ability to win in the fall.”
Santorum who had been far behind in national polls has avoided hard hits from his opponents, but will likely now face much stronger attacks from Super PACs and other candidates, Sabato said.
While his Iowa showing likely will help energize fundraising, Santorum was behind his competitors in the most recent Dec. 5 campaign finance filings. Romney had collected $32.2 million to Santorum’s $1.28 million, ranking him seventh among Republican candidates, according to filings compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. President Barack Obama had collected $86.2 million.
Santorum will have a harder time in places like New Hampshire where conservatives tend to be more concerned with the economy than the social issues motivating Iowa evangelicals, said Daniel Birdsong, a political science lecturer at the University of Dayton. Voting will then move to states larger and more diverse than either Iowa or New Hampshire.
“That is why people question why Iowa is so important,” Birdsong said. “It seems to be demographically, socially and economically not representative of the United States.”
Ron Paul’s third place showing in Iowa was encouraging for supporter Chris Littleton, co-founder of the Ohio Liberty Council, who believes it indicates Paul’s Libertarian message is resonating with voters.’
But Scott and Smith doubt Paul can gain enough traction to take the nomination. Local voters interviewed on Wednesday said they are tired of the Republican race typically being virtually decided by the time Ohio’s primary occurs.
Carolyn Terrill of Englewood said she likes Santorum’s positions on most issues, and said he could succeed in Ohio and beyond.
“A lot of people aren’t for Romney because he has flip-flopped on so many things,” she said. “(Santorum) can be a viable candidate.”
Tom Whalen of Dayton agreed that Santorum could do well in Ohio, given his appeal to evangelical conservatives. But John Siler of Dayton said he thought two big obstacles would stop Santorum.
“I don’t think he has a chance,” Siler said. “I don’t think he has a lot of name recognition to start with. And a lot of the policies he’s been involved with are really extreme.”
Tweet
