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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2009 > February > 03
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Martin Gottlieb: Strength with GOP base didn’t work for Blackwell — again
As seen from Ohio, the main news in the selection of a new chairman for the national Republican Party is that Ken Blackwell managed to lose even though it was the year for a black guy.
Two black men were seeking the chairmanship of a party that doesn’t have a single black member of Congress and hasn’t had for years. Blackwell and new-chairman Michael Steele must have constituted about half the black contingent at the GOP convention last summer, or so it seemed to the naked eye taking in things on television.
If the Republican rank-and-file has any doubt about whether the election of President Barack Obama really means change, surely that is resolved now.
Neither of these candidates for chairman came into the national race as any sort of conquering hero. One case for Steele over Blackwell was that his loss in a Maryland Senate race in 2006 was smaller than Blackwell’s loss of the Ohio governor’s race. And Steele can note that Maryland, unlike Ohio, is a clearly Democratic state.
Blackwell, the former secretary of state and treasurer, got into the chairmanship race later than Steele, the former lieutenant governor of his state. Blackwell apparently saw an opening on the right, because some diehard conservatives are skeptical of Steele’s commitment. Steele is a conservative, a commentator on Fox News and the author of the “Drill, baby, drill!” chant at the Republican convention.
But he opposes capital punishment. (As a former Catholic seminarian, he sees it in a similar light as abortion). And he said that running as a Republican in 2006 was like wearing a scarlet letter. And he doesn’t please the right on affirmative action. (Actually, though, some people might be a little surprised by what Blackwell has to say on that last one.)
Blackwell, after running last in early votes, withdrew and threw his support to Steele over a more clearly conservative candidate. But that candidate, from South Carolina, has belonged to an all-white country club. The party was skittish about going there, especially after a flap about another candidate who had circulated a song titled “Barack the Magic Negro.”
Weak field.
The logic of Steele over Blackwell has to look pretty sound even to somebody interested in seeing Ohioans in positions of national power.
Blackwell pursued the chairmanship the same way he ran for governor. The idea was to first lock up the right-wing of the more conservative party, then go from there. In Ohio, after he won the primary over a candidate who had once seemed stronger, he lost the general election in a historic landslide, running well behind even other Republicans in that Democratic year.
So one can see why the prospect of an intra-party fight was attractive to Blackwell. It would play to his strength.
Clearly, though, the Republicans are better off with somebody whose ideological image is a bit softer. Blackwell’s hard-line reputation puts a lot of Republicans on guard immediately. He was deeply controversial within the party in Ohio. State Chairman Robert Bennett supported another candidate for national chairman. Blackwell does not seem like the person to reach out to purple states.
The death of the Republican Party has been often overstated. This talk about it becoming a party of white southern males is nonsense. In Ohio, the counties in which it’s strongest are precisely the ones that are growing fastest: the ex-urban places like Warren, south of Dayton, and Delaware, outside of Columbus. The places where the Republicans are weakest — the big cities and their counties — are the areas that are losing population. Meanwhile, the Republicans are dominant in vast stretches.
If they had won the last couple of elections, these facts would be pointed to as the reason. When a party has a losing streak, some people always come along and say the problem is fundamental, having to do with long-term trends. Typically, though, it’s a just a losing streak brought about by fleeting factors.
Still, a chairman’s job is to ignore that kind of analysis, to assume that bad trends are at work that the party needs to come to terms with, and to recognize that the party needs to get creative about winning in areas beyond its base.
In being all about the base, Ken Blackwell did not put himself in a good position to compete for that kind of job.
Permalink | Comments (3) | Post your comment | Categories: Columns, Martin Gottlieb, National Politics
TweetEditorial: Strickland’s plans are far from locked in
Gov. Ted Strickland got some big things right in his proposed two-year budget that he presented this week. He deserves credit for thinking boldly in extraordinarily difficult economic times when he might be tempted to step backward.
But for all the good ideas Gov. Strickland has put forward — strengthening schools, providing health care to more uninsured children, insisting tuition be held down — what’s missing is a reality check.
This $54 billion proposal chases big dreams, but it is built on a lot of hopeful wishes.
For the budget to work over the next two years, Ohio must get $3.4 billion from the federal stimulus package. Though that deal is not done, it’s a reasonable guess that the state will get a one-time gift.
In addition to getting this cash, Gov. Strickland is counting on a large percentage of the state’s 60,000 workers — including 35,000 represented by the Ohio Civil Service Employees Association — accepting pay cuts of up to 6 percent. Union leaders are balking.
Moreover, the plan is to drain the rainy day fund and borrow some money using the tobacco settlement as collateral; together these two sources represent $1.5 billion in revenue that is here today, but won’t be available in two years when the next budget is put together.
Finally, the proposal requires deep cuts at multiple state agencies, and big jumps in state fees paid by hospitals, nursing homes, car owners and others.
And, of course, the governor’s plan will go nowhere without agreement from the Republican-controlled Ohio Senate.
All these financial gymnastics could possibly get Ohio to 2011, at which point Gov. Strickland’s almost decade-long plan for a huge expansion in education spending — including a longer school year, longer school day, universal all-day kindergarten and other costly initiatives — would be just barely under way.
How in the world can those new programs be maintained beyond 2011?
The only way that could happen is for the national and state economies to make a dramatic rebound — fast— flooding state coffers with new revenue. But every indicator suggests more economic pain for the state over the next several years. A modest rebound by 2011 is not out of the question, though the big turnaround in Ohio’s economic fortunes that Gov. Strickland’s budget plans would require can only be called a long shot.
A lot of states, not just Ohio, are looking for help from the Obama administration and Congress. In a recession, spending by states invariably goes up because they’re paying more for a bigger safety net for people who are out of work and without health insurance. Meanwhile, the tax revenue that states are pulling in is dropping or flat. In these circumstances, it may be only the federal government that — through borrowing — can help keep money circulating, in part, by aiding states.
If everything goes exactly as planned, maybe Gov. Strickland can make this budget work. But it’s hard to see how he isn’t setting the state up for a devastating shortfall in 2011. All his good ideas won’t help Ohio if they’re junked after just two years and before they’ve even been fully implemented.
Much of what Gov. Strickland wants to do is hard to argue with. And, in fact, he’s imposing those ideas slowly because he simply can’t afford to make them happen all at once. But he’s being asked — rightly — if all the changes can be adopted even in 10 years. The questions are more than fair.
Permalink | Comments (0) | Post your comment | Categories: Editorials, Ohio politics, Scott Elliott
TweetStrickland: Fisher “best qualified” for Senate
Gov. Ted Strickland said Tuesday afternoon that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is the “best qualified” Democrat among those considering a run for U.S. Senate in 2010.
Strickland was in Dayton promoting his budget and his education program. After a meeting at the Dayton Daily News, he was asked about Senate race.
Strickland said he had met with Fisher Monday, and they discussed the race for the vacancy being created by the retirement of Sen. George Voinovich. Strickland said he thought Fisher hadn’t made the decision to run yet, but was clearly considering it.
The governor also said he didn’t think Attorney General Richard Cordray would make the race, because he just took office. But he said that other Democrats are understood to be interested, including Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur, Toledo.
Permalink | Comments (6) | Post your comment | Categories: Martin Gottlieb, Ohio politics
TweetScott Elliott: Five Oaks needs a school, even if it’s not Julienne
This is going to be hard for some people to accept. Emotional attachments to our past run deep and whenever possible we shouldn’t give them up.
But sometimes we should, in order to look forward to the future. For those who live in Dayton’s Five Oaks neighborhood around the former Julienne High School, this is a time to mourn, but then to let go. To do otherwise jeopardizes an opportunity the neighborhood must not miss.
Some of the neighbors who want to save Julienne have a false sense of the choice before them. They don’t have a choice between having a new school on Homewood Avenue or having a renovated Julienne.
The real choice is a $14 million new school in their neighborhood or no school at all.
Dayton Public Schools owns Julienne, having bought it in 2004 after Dayton Christian High School relocated to Miami Twp. School district leaders wanted a place to house Stivers School for the Arts while its Fifth Street building was rebuilt.
But that wasn’t the only reason the district wanted the building. Five Oaks has more kids who attend Dayton Public Schools than most neighborhoods. The Julienne site was a natural place for a new elementary school, as part of the district’s 10-year construction program.
Built in 1926, Julienne has genuine significance for thousands of Daytonians. The school played an important role in shaping the lives of a sizeable chunk of the city.
But the district doesn’t want to renovate the building because of the expense. Officials estimate renovation would cost the district $6 million more than the price of a new building. (The district was stung by the cost of renovating Stivers, a project that ran close to $16 million above the $24 million usual price tag for a new high school.)
Critics say the district’s numbers are wrong. But the school board believes them. It isn’t going to change course.
I’m not saying Julienne is not worth saving. But it is hard to see how it could be saved now. There really aren’t any other options to improve the site besides a school district project.
It has been almost a year since the school board said it was willing to consider other ideas; there haven’t been any. Last March, I called the Archdiocese of Cincinnati to see if it could help.
“We have our own financial needs to look at,” spokesman Dan Andriacco said, calling any interest from the Catholic Church “unlikely.”
How about Clay Mathile, the wealthy Dayton-area philanthropist known to support Catholic schools? A Mathile Family Foundation spokeswoman would only say the group would consider making grants to community groups proposing projects that fit its mission.
Maybe Chaminade Julienne High School would like to buy back the building? CJ officials told the district they don’t have the money or the need for another building.
Here’s what will likely happen if the neighborhood convinces the Dayton City Commission to block the new school, which is the recommendation of the planning board. The school district will scrap its plan for the Julienne site and build the new school about a mile away at the former site of Colonel White High School. School officials have already talked to Colonel White neighbors and believe they will have their buy-in.
If that happens, it will be devastating for Five Oaks, a neighborhood that has been among the hardest hit by crime and by the predatory lending scandal. A $14 million investment would be a big boost.
Also, if the school goes to Colonel White and no buyer ever comes forward for Julienne, it is district policy not to have any empty buildings at the end of its construction program. So the Julienne site could end up an empty lot.
The neighborhood must not let that happen. The kids, property owners and residents of Five Oaks need a school.
Permalink | Comments (3) | Post your comment | Categories: Columns, Education, Scott Elliott
TweetEditorial: Trains becoming better choice for Ohio cities
Gov. Ted Strickland, in his State of the State speech last week:
“We will work toward the restoration of passenger rail service between Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland … for the first time in 40 years. This will be a first step toward a rail system that links neighborhoods within a city, and cities within our state.”
Not long ago, all talk of ambitious passenger rail plans for Ohio was pretty much limited to a few stalwart dreamers. The state’s voters rejected a train proposal decades ago, and that pretty much settled things for the pragmatic classes in Columbus.
So that statement in Gov. Strickland’s speech Wednesday was big. No longer a dream, passenger rail service is now a government policy.
And the good news for train fans is not limited to that. Just last week, the Ohio Department of Transportation got a new director, and she’s big into trains. Jolene Molitoris has been the second-ranking person at ODOT, meanwhile serving as the chair of the Ohio Rail Development Commission. That commission was created by the state in 1994 “to plan, promote and implement the improved movement of goods and people faster and safer on a rail transportation network connecting Ohio to the nation and the world.”
Before she was at ODOT, Ms. Molitoris was in charge of the Federal Railroad Administration, which regulates rail safety, among other things.
Nor does the good news stop there. The Obama administration is seen as friendly to the idea of expanded rail service, whereas insiders say the Bush administration was bigger into buses. The recent effort of the city of Columbus to get an intra-city rail project in line for federal funds resulted in part from the perception of greater friendliness in Washington, even absent a federal stimulus package.
The federal government will be crucial in whatever happens on the “3-C” corridor the governor mentioned.
The good news about rail service is good news for Dayton, which is ideally situated to benefit. The 3-C project would not do much for most other cities of similar size. Toledo, for example, and Youngstown are likely to see the governor’s plan as just another project benefiting the big cities.
But the 3-C line is likely to go through Dayton, because the plans are to build the service along already existing train lines. Old lines connect Dayton and Springfield to Cincinnati and Columbus. Otherwise, some people might push for service up Interstate 71 from Cincinnati to Columbus, a more direct route than through Dayton.
Rail transportation is expensive to build and operate. Skeptics have long insisted that a 3-C corridor wouldn’t make enough money to pay operational expenses, much less capital expenses. But times are changing.
Gas prices are unpredictable at best. People are more aware of environmental issues. Families are wondering how many vehicles they’ll be able to afford in the future. More and more people live between the major cities.
Meanwhile, the construction of trains looms as a possible source of jobs.
A dramatic recession might seem like an odd time for a society to be moving ahead in a realm that was considered too expensive when times were much better. But the recession is causing the president to for more federal spending as a stimulus.
Passenger trains have proved useful in the most densely populated parts of the country, particularly the two coasts. Ohio is sort of the next step downward in density: it’s not the Washington-Boston axis, but it’s not Montana, either. It could be the next place.
Permalink | Comments (1) | Post your comment | Categories: Editorials, Martin Gottlieb, Transportation
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