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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2009 > February > 06 > Entry
Let’s look at the politcs of Strickland’s education plan
Over at the DDN Education blog, Get on the Bus, it took me two posts to analyze all the elements of Gov. Ted Strickland’s big education proposal from the state of the state address. (See part one here and part two here.)
But lets get away from the merits of the ideas in terms of policy and consider a different question — is Strickland’s plan smart politics?
Presuming the majority of the plan makes it through the legislature and is approved, let’s look ahead to what might happen politically over the next few years. Strickland must run for re-election in 2010. By using the one-time federal stimulus money to launch a big education reform, he’s betting that people will like what they see from the plan over the next two years.
And if things go right, they should at least notice a difference. Strickland’s plan is supposed to mean more funding burden for schools on the state, which is then supposed to result in fewer local school levies. And parents should start seeing all sorts of extras in schools as part of the plan — full-day kindergarten, smaller class sizes, even more school nurses.
So this gives Strickland the opportunity to run for re-election in 2010 arguing he’s the only governor in recent history to noticeably improve education and school funding in Ohio. If people buy that it should help his re-election chances. And the next budget crisis should hold off until early 2011 — possibly after he is re-elected in 2010. In 2011, however, there will be no federal stimulus funds to rescue the next two-year budget and it doesn’t seem like much time for a big economic recovery.
So then what happens? A newly-re-elected Strickland starts his next four year term with another big budget crisis in all likelihood. But he doesn’t have to run for re-election ever again. This seems like a time when he could potentially utter the dreaded “T” word — taxes. Strickland could use his political capital to propose a bargain to voters. “Like what’s happening in your school? The only way to keep it is if we raise taxes,” he could say. Otherwise, he’d tell people to prepare to see all his education changes dismantled.
Voters might not react well to this even a tax is approved. Would it kill Democrats’ chances in 2012 and 2014 if he pushed through a tax in early 2011? Maybe not. There would be two years before the 2012 election. Keep in mind that is three years from now. The Democrats could be greatly helped if the economy has started a turnaround. By the next governor’s race in 2014 — five years off from the worst of the economic crisis we expect to see this year in 2009 — if there has been enough economic recovery, the Democrats might be able to argue they fixed education while at the same time claiming credit for an improved economic climate.
But all this assumes a lot of things go Strickland and the Democrats’ way over the next several years. A lot could go wrong. The education plan could be viewed as a boondoggle. The statehouse could go all Republican in 2010. A Republican could win the governor’s race in 2012. The economy could get continuously worse over the next five years, hurting the party in power.
So you can see Strickland is making a few big bets. He is betting people will like the education plan and that the economy will recover. But if they do and if it does, there could be a lot of political gain.
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