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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2009 > May > 03
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Editorial: Let up in foreclosures not here yet
In Ohio, Montgomery County’s foreclosure crisis is second only to the Cleveland area’s. So it seemed like good news last week when a California realty tracking company reported foreclosure filings in the Dayton area declined in March.
Not so fast, say local experts.
In fact, Montgomery County data show little reason to expect a foreclosure turnaround this year or even next.
While there has been a slight burst in houses being sold, that uptick won’t be enough to help the region’s housing market, if at the same time neighborhoods are threatened because homes continue to be abandoned or sold at depressed prices at sheriff’s sales.
RealtyTrac Inc., reported that foreclosure filings in the Dayton metropolitan area were down 14 percent for March when compared with last year. (The firm counts all foreclosure filings, which can include multiple filings in one foreclosure case, rather than just new filings.) Montgomery County’s numbers also were down.
Yet, Montgomery County Recorder Willis Blackshear, who methodically tracks foreclosures, says he sees no sign there will be a significant drop-off in 2009. Last March, his foreclosure prediction nearly matched exactly the final numbers for the year — 5,193 total new filings and 2,781 properties sold at auction.
For 2009, his latest projections are only slightly down — just over 5,000 new filings and 2,500 auction sales. His view fits with what other agencies that work with troubled homeowners are seeing. There’s been no lessening in demand for their services.
Mr. Blackshear said nothing so far has swayed him from his estimation that the crisis will not hit bottom until 2013. He’s not being inconsistent when he says that while the overall housing market may begin to recover over the next year or two, foreclosures could still remain high.
Consider, for instance, that buy-out payments to laid-off factory workers from General Motors and other companies could start running out this year and next for those who haven’t been able to find employment at comparable wages. Mr. Black-shear said he worries that many area homeowners could struggle to make mortgage payments that were based on their previously higher incomes.
In anticipation of this problem and the fact that the recession continues to strap a lot of families, Mr. Blackshear has tried to raise private contributions to hire two people to personally call on borrowers his office has identified through public records as having troubled or predatory loans. The hope would be to head off foreclosure before the process begins.
One person starts next month, but there isn’t money to hire a second individual.
Another frustration of Mr. Blackshear’s is that federal stimulus aid is going only to private groups trying to avert foreclosures; his outreach effort, unfortunately, can’t get a small slice of those funds. He thinks that it’s a mistake to assume that local government can’t, or shouldn’t, play a role in helping people stay in their homes.
“We’ve tried mailing letters, but the physical outreach is required,” he said. “It’s better than waiting until they come to you.”
Despite his gloomy forecast on foreclosures, Mr. Blackshear said he has seen a hint of good news in the housing market. While mortgage filings remain flat for 2009, his office, which records deeds and property transfers, has been seeing more activity from title companies lately.
That could mean home sales are in the pipeline, but that banks are backed up on processing loan requests or are being more careful about whom they’re loaning to. (With interest rates low and so many people refinancing, that also could be slowing down loan approvals that, in other times, would have more quickly shown up as sales.)
Realtors, too, have seen similar signs of hope, Dayton Area Board of Realtors President Harry Vearn said. March sales were the best year-over-year results for home sales since October, even though they fell slightly compared to last March. (It’s telling what passes for good news in this economy.)
That new interest presumably is driven, in part, by the federal stimulus that includes a big tax break for first-time home buyers — $8,000 or 10 percent of the home value, whichever is less. Mr. Vearn said that seems to have spurred young families who had previously held off on home shopping.
If a home sales bump materializes as a result of the stimulus, that is a good sign of smart federal spending to get the economy going. At the same time, local government programs like Mr. Blackshear’s also can attack a desperate housing problem in another important way.
Permalink | Comments (1) | Post your comment | Categories: City of Dayton, Economy, Editorials, Predatory lending, Scott Elliott, Social Services
Ellen Belcher: Ohio’s love fest over, won’t be back
Two years ago, so much was so different in the state.
The Dow was in the stratosphere, and Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland and a Republican Legislature agreed on a two-year budget with just one no vote. The spending plan was heralded as stunningly low-growth and that was before the cuts that have since been imposed as the economy tanked.
The governor actually hugged then-Ohio House Speaker Jon Husted, of Kettering, at the bill signing.
Here it is 2009, and the markets have gone off a cliff, and the chance of there being any hugs or near unanimous votes on Ohio’s next budget is nil.
When you consider how difficult meeting budgets — anybody’s budget — has become, lawmakers should have been happy in 2007. After all, as seen in today’s light, how hard could the decisions have been?
Further complicating things is that elections are around the corner. In the world of politics, 2010 is here. No one is making a move without thinking how it might look a year from this fall.
The goal is not necessarily figuring out what’s best for the state, or where people can compromise; rather, decisions are being made with an eye toward exposing the other side’s vulnerable spots and hypocrisy (of which there’s a lot).
At some point, at least a temporary truce will have to be called. Ohio has to have a budget passed by July 1, and it must be balanced. Democrats have taken over the House, but the Senate is still in Republican hands. For the sake of the state and its reputation, you have to hope that things won’t get so ugly that we’ll become California and deadlock will be national news.
Strickland is not kidding when he says the picture is bleak. His $54 billion budget relies on $6.7 billion in one-time money, most of it from the federal stimulus.
Meanwhile, the revenue forecast his plan is based on is becoming negatively outdated by the day.
Republicans complain that the governor is setting the state up for a fall, that not cutting deeper now means the pain will be horrendous in two years. But they aren’t proposing to give back the stimulus money. And they definitely aren’t proposing a tax increase. And they haven’t said how they would cut, oh, say, even a couple billion dollars.
Meanwhile, as the governor is trying to call out Republicans for their double-talk, the leading contender to challenge him next year is Fox News commentator and former Congressman John Kasich. He’s actually said Ohio should get on a path to eliminating its income tax, one of two of the state’s largest sources of income.
Kasich’s idea is ludicrous, but it explains why Strickland is so eager to insist that raising taxes is off the table now (though, when pushed, he’s careful not to say never).
Strickland is playing games as well. He is touting his education plan relentlessly, which he has to do because he staked his governorship on dramatically reshaping schools and how they’re supported. But he can’t pay for his boldest ideas.
His proposal that the state should have a panel that calculates the cost to educate every child and then present that tab to the Legislature has Republicans worried. Some speculate that’s a back-door way of forcing lawmakers to give school districts more money than the state has — unless it increase taxes.
After all, if there’s a law that says a panel gets to decide what it takes to adequately educate a child, and then if the Legislature doesn’t turn over that amount, doesn’t that give school districts a license to go to the Ohio Supreme Court — again — and say that lawmakers aren’t giving them what they’re entitled to?
Republicans’ suspicion is not ridiculous.
The history of school backers is that they believe their cause is right and that the Constitution is on their side. If Strickland’s language survives, they can say a new law also says that paying for what schools need — as defined by experts, not politicians who have to balance competing demands — is the state’s first and highest obligation.
In the next 60 days, Strickland and lawmakers aren’t just deciding how to spend your tax dollars for the next two years. They’re charting a course that creates even harder decisions down a short road.
Permalink | Comments (6) | Post your comment | Categories: Columns, Economy, Elections, Ellen Belcher, Ohio politics
