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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2009 > December > 15
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Editorial: Local cities right to question feds’ numbers
Piqua’s Bill Lutz just can’t quite buy the numbers he’s seeing in the latest Census survey, no matter how much he’d like to believe.
Amid mostly bad news for the 14 Dayton-area cities large enough to be included in the data collected from 2006 to 2008, Piqua was a bright spot. The survey found that income in local cities generally declined and poverty rose. Piqua, however, was the only city where the poverty rate dropped — from 12.2 percent in the 2000 Census to 10.1 percent in the new survey.
The data just does not match reality.
Mr. Lutz, who works in economic development for the city, said the survey data “flies in the face of what we are seeing.”
The data matters. Is Piqua doing something right on poverty that it should be doing more of? The data should help provide an answer. Moreover, Census numbers, whatever their flaws, are used by the federal government to decide policy and, in some cases, to direct funding.
The Census’ main mission is to collect demographic information every 10 years. But those numbers can become misleading over time. So in the 1990s the Census Bureau started doing interim reports called surveys.
The 10-year counts are known for being far more precise. In the survey estimates, on the other hand, small sample sizes mean wider margins of error. The smaller the community or the demographic group, the greater the chance of error.
And assumptions the survey-makers use to make educated guesses can be wrong.
Xenia, to take an example, successfully appealed its 2007 Census population estimate. The city proved some assumptions in the calculation were incorrect and got its official population raised significantly from 23,656 to 27,291.
Now Xenia is understandably miffed, with the latest survey estimating the city’s population at 24,674. Census officials explained the survey uses a different calculation method.
The city frets that demographic changes noted in the survey may paint an inaccurate picture, scaring away potential businesses or home buyers.
The survey methods may also explain Piqua’s phantom good fortune.
Intrigued by the possibility that poverty was improving, Mr. Lutz dug deeper into the data.
It showed:
• The percentage of residents with a college degree was up 17 percent from survey data collected from 2005 to 2007.
• The percentage with a graduate degree was up 20 percent.
• The percentage who were foreign-born was up 14 percent.
The big swings suggested something dramatic — perhaps a new business was attracting well-educated foreign workers to town. But Mr. Lutz isn’t aware of anything like that.
Piqua schools were equally baffled. Superintendent Rick Hanes said there was no decline in poverty-related needs of kids, nor significant growth in the number of kids learning English as a second language.
In fact, there is a good chance that Piqua’s demographics have not changed so much. The numbers that jumped off the page to Mr. Lutz are likely a fluke.
Big trends in the survey can be trusted. There is no doubt, for instance, that incomes have dropped in the Dayton area and that poverty is up in many local communities. But a critical eye and reality-checking are needed before too many conclusions are drawn.
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