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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2010 > June > 17
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Martin Gottlieb: Why are Ohio Democrats still hanging in there?
Imagine a law that said you couldn’t divorce your second spouse unless you were willing to go back to your first, whom you already divorced.
That’s the situation of voters today. They divorced the Republicans only two years ago — or, let’s say, separated — citing insufficient economic support. But now they are dissatisfied with the Democrats.
But they don’t have the option of rejecting both.
The two-party system has its merits. But this business of holding elections every two years plays to its weaknesses. The system makes the ex the only alternative to the incumbents at a time when the wounds of an ugly parting may not have healed.
Maybe that’s why Democratic candidates in Ohio’s biggest pending elections are holding their own in polls so far. In a swing state, in a year when all the advantages appear to accrue to the party that’s not in power in Washington and Columbus, the races for governor and senator are rough ties. Sometimes they show little Democratic leads.
Voters in some other, similar states seem readier to kiss and make up with the Republicans. Here’s one measure of the national situation:
The nonpartisan website RealClearPolitics says 20 governorships are open; the Rs look clearly stronger in 10, and the Ds in only 3.
In Michigan, where the governorship is open, all the Republican candidates lead all the Democrats. In Florida, also with an open governorship, a Republican is ahead. In Illinois, a Democratic governor is running behind.
Or look at Senate races where the seat is open, as in Ohio. A Democrat is leaving in Indiana, and a Republican has the lead to replace him, though that Republican, former Senator Dan Coats, has some decided political flaws. In Democratic Delaware, a Republican is leading to replace Joe Biden.
So why are the Ohio Democrats holding up so well?
Some analysts have been saying that one Republican problem is that their candidates, Rob Portman for the open Senate seat, and John Kasich for governor, are unknown to a lot of voters.
In fact, though, they’re as well known as a lot of candidates who are leading. Often, largely unknown challengers get embraced in polls until something negative about them surfaces.
Of course, the Democrats have been more than willing to surface Republican negatives: Portman is a Bushie and Kasich is a Wall Streeter.
But how many voters are paying attention is unclear. And, after all, it’s a bit awkward to argue that votes don’t know who Portman and Kasich are but that voters know the case against those candidates.
Most likely, the Republicans’ fundamental problem is, after all, the 2008 break-up and its ugliness.
If that hasn’t hurt them as much as elsewhere in Ohio, the explanation is probably local factors. In Michigan, the Democrats have run the state government longer. In Illinois, the Democrats have been plagued by scandal.
Perhaps the way to put it is this: In 2010, the Democrats are the party with no margin for error.
But if they put up candidates with the right qualifications and no great personal blemishes, they can be competitive by keeping some attention focused on the fact that the Republicans were not born in 2009, that they are not governmental virgins.
In the long run, Democratic Senate candidate Lee Fisher seems to have a tougher job than Gov. Ted Strickland, notwithstanding all the problems that incumbents have had in primaries this year.
Historically, voters have tended to offset a new president’s power the first chance they get, electing legislators of the other party. (Whereas, of course, they tend to re-elect governors.)
The fact that Fisher is hanging in there so far — having an average lead of 1.3 percent in three polls tracked by RealClearPolitics — suggests that all is not yet forgotten between voters and Republicans.
Fisher, having been the chief jobs guy in Ohio in years that will go down in history for the numbers of jobs lost, should be glad that the voters’ ex is still in the picture, for purposes of comparison.
He should, in other words, be having warm thoughts about the two-party system. Three could be a problem.
Permalink | Comments (31) | Post your comment | Categories: Columns, Elections, Martin Gottlieb, Ohio politics
Editorial: 4 polling places enough for Dem primary
2010 ELECTION
You can just feel the excitement building about the July 13 Democratic primary for Congress, can’t you?
Can’t you?
Perhaps not.
Truth is, this is one of those situations wherein, if the authorities managed to forget to hold the election, few people would notice. And fewer would care.
At issue is an opponent for U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Centerville. None of the elected Democratic politicians you can think of wants to take him on.
And no billionaire or celebrity candidates have come forth. A non-politician was a candidate in the May 4 primary, but has now withdrawn.
So there has to be a special primary, because nobody wants to give the party organization itself the power to simply designate a nominee. One might think that, if a political party fails to have a candidate in place by, say, the original primary, that party should lose the right to put up somebody. But some allowance has to be made for candidate deaths and such. So here we are.
The Democrats had a strikingly similar situation in 2006. That time, non-politician Stephanie Studebaker won the primary to oppose Rep. Turner. But she eventually pulled out. In the subsequent special primary, about 7,000 people voted. (Congressional districts have more than a half-million residents.)
So elections officials in the district were not looking forward to another election in which poll workers spend all day waiting for voters and not a single one shows up. Nor was the state enthusiastic about paying for the election, which would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
State Rep. David Daniels, a Republican who represents Clinton and Highland counties (which are both in Congressman Turner’s district), came up with a proposal that struck a lot of people as sensible: give the counties the option of limiting polling places to just four sites, while advising voters that they may vote by mail. Voting by mail has become more popular by leaps and bounds in the last few years.
His proposal got attached to a pending piece of legislation and was adopted without opposition. Rep. Daniels said he personally notified all the legislators in the district of the proposal.
The new law is essentially an experiment, applying only to congressional elections this year. The 3rd’s primary might be the only time it’s used. The law expires in August. In recent years, states and Washington have generally tried to make voting and registering easier. That’s been a good idea. This initiative isn’t really going in the other direction, given that the vote-by-mail option is there. It, too, is a good idea.
It could even result in more turnout than last time, when mail-in voting didn’t have the same role. Turnout depends in part on candidates. Seeking the nomination are former sportscaster Guy Fogle, newcomer Joe Roberts and perennial candidate David Esrati. (The 2006 special primary was won by former assistant federal prosecutor Dick Chema.)
Anybody insisting on the more expensive, troublesome way of holding this particular primary would have a tough sell.
As more and more people make use of ways to vote before Election Day, someone will likely propose that polling places be reduced in number even in bigger elections. That question will be worth pausing over. This one is a no-brainer.
Permalink | Comments (1) | Post your comment | Categories: Editorials, Elections, Martin Gottlieb, Miami Valley Politics
