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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.
Scott Elliott is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He writes about education, city and suburban issues, politics, business, workforce and consumer issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2010 > July > 27 > Entry
Martin Gottlieb: Is Kasich’s Indiana really Ohio’s right role model?
The last time Ohio had an election for governor, one candidate wanted to talk about another state: Florida.
J. Kenneth Blackwell, then the Republican secretary of state, pointed out that Florida was doing a lot better than Ohio in a lot of ways. It was growing and prospering. People were leaving Ohio for Florida.
He traced these facts to a difference in tax policies. Florida had lower taxes and, most specifically, no state income tax.
Listening to him, one thought, really?
You want to compare Ohio to Florida? Not Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania or New York, but Florida?
You think that when people leave Ohio for Florida, the reason must be taxes?
Maybe ideologues are impervious to weather.
After 2006, the Florida economy collapsed. It collapsed sooner and harder than economies elsewhere. All of a sudden, property couldn’t be sold and jobs couldn’t be found.
At right-wing think tanks across the country, interns were told to find out who had raised taxes in Florida. Or so one presumes.
Now there’s another candidate for governor with a favorite state. John Kasich likes Indiana, or, more precisely, its governor, Mitch Daniels, a fellow Republican. In making his case for lower taxes and less regulation, Kasich talks about how much better things are going in Indiana because of smart policies there.
Daniels has emerged as a favorite on the political right, even getting talked about for president. He was first elected in 2004. The state had had a string of unbalanced budgets. Daniels, with a combination of cutbacks, efficiency measures, tax cuts and tax increases, brought the budget into balance and even created a surplus. When other states went into the red quickly after the 2008 collapse of the economy, Indiana didn’t.
He was re-elected in 2008 by 18 percentage points, while Barack Obama was becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in decades.
On top of all that, there has been some statistical and anecdotal evidence that businesses are choosing Indiana, and that it is one state in the region that is actually growing.
So at least Kasich’s selection of a role model has a stronger logic than Blackwell’s.
But some statistics cited in Daniels’ favor are kind of like the one about Ohio being named — over and over, under various governors — by a magazine called Site Selection as the national leader in the number of businesses moving here. You know there’s something wrong with that stat even if you don’t know quite what it is.
Sometimes Indiana is identified as a state whose unemployment rate has gone down during a particular period, when most states have seen a rise. And at certain stage this year, Indiana was claiming to lead the country in job creation, seeing 7 percent of the new jobs this year, despite having only 2 percent of the population. (Actually, Ohio led the nation in jobs created for one month this year.)
In the big picture, though, things look different. Take taxes. An organization called the Tax Foundation notes that Indiana is Ohio’s only neighbor that has higher taxes than Ohio, when you combine state and local.
Or take jobs. In June, Indiana’s unemployment rate was 10.6 percent, Ohio’s 10.5, though Indiana used to have a lower rate.
A lot of people think the unemployment rate doesn’t tell you much. So the Brookings Institution think tank decided to simply ask how many people are working?
It found that between late 2007 and mid-2010, the percentage of Hoosiers working dropped from 63.5 percent to 57.2. That was the sixth biggest drop among states, and bigger than any state in the Midwest.
The Columbus Dispatch reports that Indiana has lost 5.8 percent of its jobs since early 2007, compared to Ohio’s 7 percent.
The top of Kasich’s website has a running count of Ohio jobs lost on Gov. Ted Strickland’s watch. The number is the cornerstone of his attack on Strickland, who took office in early 2007. Somebody running against Daniels could have the same kind of counter.
Ohio’s search for a state continues.
Permalink | Comments (12) | Post your comment | Categories: Economy, Elections, Martin Gottlieb, Ohio government, Ohio politics
Comments
By bobby
July 27, 2010 6:56 PM | Link to this
Chris Christie - New Jersey Governor comments on vetoing unbudgeted state funding - “Even after closing a $2.2 billion shortfall in the FY 1010 budget and an $11 billion budget deficit in the FY 2011 budget, New Jersey continues to face long standing, structural diffficulties in its finances that require fiscal restraint and additional reforms. Governor Christie will continue to demand fiscal responsibiliity and accountability in government and advocate for the necessary reforms to put New Jersey on a stable foundation in the long run. Continuing to make unsupportable expenditures will only take New Jersey backwards…” New Jesey/Ohio New Jersey voters threw out John Corzine as governor for Chris Christie. Let’s hope Ohio follows their lead.
By Raoul
July 28, 2010 7:40 AM | Link to this
Martin, you have done nothing to convince me not to vote for Kasich. It’s not just about taxes.
By joe_mamma
July 28, 2010 8:08 AM | Link to this
Martin…can you post the link from the Tax Foundation that shows that Indiana’s state and local tax burden is higher than Ohio’s? I just did a quick check on their site and found www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/336.html it shows that the per capita percent of income paid to state and local taxes in Indiana as 9.4% and 10.4% in Ohio. Thanks.
By joe_mamma
July 28, 2010 8:54 AM | Link to this
Fun with numbers. I went to the Tax Foundation website www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/336.html that Martin mentioned. Back in 1977 Ohio had a lower tax burden than Indiana 8.7% vs. 9.4%. Around 1987 the tax rates of the states started to diverge…Indiana remains relatively constant while Ohio starts to rise. Income growth in the two states from 1977 to 2008 (in constant 2008 dollars) was practically identical +49%. However, income growth in the two states from 1987 when Ohio taxes started increasing are Indiana +31% vs. Ohio +27%. If you look at net income (income less state and local taxes) the growth rate from 1977 to 2008 is Indiana +49%, Ohio +47%. From 1987 to 2008 when Ohio taxes rose compared to Indiana the net income growth is +31% Indiana vs +26% Ohio.
By Rob
July 28, 2010 9:31 AM | Link to this
Oh noes…a Republican making sense and gaining traction with the electorate…quick consult “Journolist” and figure out the correct democrat talking points to use in my soft hit piece.
By Miles
July 28, 2010 9:39 AM | Link to this
It’s funny that you bring up Christie. With Kasich, as with Herbert Hoover, we’ll keep cutting and cutting, but never balance the budget. Are we going to lay off our way to full employment?
By bobby
July 28, 2010 11:11 AM | Link to this
Miles, The answer to your question is no, but it is unrealistic to think that significant budget cuts are not in the future regardless of the outcome of the election. The alternative to reducing spending (cutting and cutting) is raising taxes and fees on everything. Higher taxes won’t bring full employment either. Balancing the budget will require both. Strickland’s allegiance to the public service worker and teacher unions will limit his options on spending reductions and pension reform. Everthing in the state budget should merit cost cutting consideration. This is what Christie is doing in New Jersey. … Your comparrison of Kasich to Hoover is laughable.
By kasichfail
July 28, 2010 12:50 PM | Link to this
Kasich is a maniac who will destroy the fiber and soul of Ohio. Parks? gone. Libraries? gone. Care for the indigent—what sets us apart as a society? gone…all to feather the nests of rich Repubs.
By DAvidss2
July 29, 2010 9:22 AM | Link to this
Oh puleeeessseeeee! What an exaggeration! A businessman and a Republican who can actually not say yes to every liberal handout here in the state? ——And all the dangerous liberals can do is call him a maniac who’s going to destroy the “soul of Ohio.” Does Ohio have soul left after 4 years of Strickland? All politics all the time Strickland? A pastor? Bah. A psychologist? Bah. From a little po’ place in SE Ohio? Bah. Big time loser. That’s loser himself and loser of Ohio jobs. Have him ask Governor Daniels in Indiana how to go after and keep jobs. We need jobs. Strickland and his Dem buds and Obama haven’t done that.
By Max
July 29, 2010 9:36 AM | Link to this
Martin: “Ohio’s search for a state continues.”…..I have to say, this is a summation of the ‘state’ of mind. As long as we keep shopping for a template success unique to other states, we’ll keep falling under the wheels of localities having the courage and will to initiate real change instead of proposing ‘centers of excellence’ which, in Ohio, has become an oxymoron. Kasich hasn’t any more answers than Strickland to the jobless and tax issues in this state. Looking at other states is like copying from a neighbor’s test paper. The only answers that matter is ours.
By Max
July 29, 2010 9:49 AM | Link to this
The polemics between the fiscal conservatives and liberals are based upon party alignment tradition, not the problems we have in Ohio. There exists plenty of middle ground acreage for new revenue with some ballast in cuts. We know campaign ‘positions’ are rarely implimented by those who win. Looking to this ‘middle’ area is not only pragmatic, it is also realistic and essential. The Gov. candidate which moves closer to that position of sanity will win. I’m still not convinced Kasich really wants the job….
By Tara
August 4, 2010 12:52 PM | Link to this
Vote for Republicans and watch those jobs at the bas go away. Sorry about your luck, Miami Valley…..Anyone on Social Security, vot republican and you will never get a raise…LOL So if you can continue to live like a fat cat as they say you do, enjoy being in the poor house… Laughing all the way to the bank.