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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2011 > March > 01
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Martin Gottlieb: Swing voters not helping moderate politicians
According to one ranking system worth noting:
• Then-Sen. George Voino-vich was tied for least conservative Senate Republican in 2010.
• Sen. Sherrod Brown was tied for the most liberal senator.
• Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Urbana, was tied for most conservative House member.
• Rep. Mike Turner, R-Centerville, was 139th most conservative House member, putting him left of center among the 178 Republicans.
• Rep. Steve Austria, R-Beavercreek, was 85th most conservative.
• Outside of Ohio, perhaps the most striking rating was for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
From 2002 to 2006, he had been among the least conservative Republicans. But by 2010, the Arizona Republican Party had reeled him back in; he was tied for most conservative senator.
Many organizations do these kinds of rankings. Most have ideological or political axes to grind, and they have been known to play games with the numbers.
But these rankings are from the National Journal, which is not aligned with anybody. It does a particularly exhaustive analysis, looking at more than 90 votes.
At that, the system is flawed, as any would be. Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich may look like he’s way to the left of the Democratic Party when he runs for president. But he doesn’t get listed as among the most liberal House members, because he’s likely to, for example, cast a vote against a liberal health care plan because it isn’t liberal enough.
Flaws and all, the study is worth pausing over for what it says about the country. In case anybody isn’t convinced that our politics is more polarized all the time, National Journal makes the point quantitatively.
The increasing tendency of legislators to vote along party and ideological lines is unmistakable (and particularly strong among Republicans).
For example, not a single Senate Democrat had a more conservative voting record than a single Republican. That’s happened once before in the history of the NJ study. But this time there was far less overlap in the House than on that occasion.
What’s most striking is the political fate of those legislators who stray even a little bit from the party line.
Among the 98 least liberal (most moderate) House Democrats, 45 were defeated and 10 others were succeeded by Republicans upon retirement.
Meanwhile, though, of the 81 most liberal House Democrats only one lost in 2010 (and one left).
Also: “Just five House Republicans in 2010 generated vote ratings more liberal than the most conservative House Democrat…. Just four Democrats produced ratings more conservative than the most liberal Republican…. Of (those) nine members who were outliers last year, only one — Republican Walter Jones of North Carolina — is still in Congress.”
The other were either defeated or left. Why would they be defeated?
If, as NJ insists, the country is far more moderate and less partisan than Congress — if, indeed, there’s a “moderate plurality” — why wouldn’t the party-pooping Republicans and Democrats prosper?
Because — strange as it sounds — independent voters vote according to party, not the individual. They’re not looking for moderates. They go with one party one year and the other in another year.
In 2006 and 2008, they were generally dissatisfied under a Republican president, and they went Democratic. In 2010, they were dissatisfied under a Democratic president and went Republican.
The relative moderates in Congress tend to represent swing districts, where independents hold the balance of power. The moderation of the local incumbents did nothing to keep those voters from swinging back the other way.
Increasingly, all politics is national, not local.
The national parties seem to have discovered that when it’s their turn, they’re going to win, almost no matter how far from the center they might stray. (The Republicans did manage to blow a few opportunities in 2010, but it wasn’t easy.)
Independents have probably always been people who switch back and forth between the parties from year to year (rather than — as they like to present themselves — people who focus on the individual, rather than party).
But that tendency had a different result back when the parties were more diverse. Now it divides the government between two warring, monolithic forces for whom compromise is a bad thing.
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Editorial: Highway patrol finding money a bit too easily?
Fee increases not being tax increases, the Kasich administration has proposed to increase from $15 to $25 the fee Ohioans pay for an auto title. That’s a 67 percent jump. This comes at a time of minimal inflation but maximum pressure on public budgets of all sorts.
Meanwhile, the state would do away with the $20 fee on late driver’s license renewals (while keeping the same fee on late registration renewals).
The net would be an increase in state revenue.
This fee hike is not relevant to the task of balancing the state budget. The new revenue would be within the state’s transportation budget, which is kept separately from the general fund. It comes complete with its own funding sources, mainly state and federal gas taxes. When there’s less money, there’s less construction and maintenance on roads, mainly.
However, the auto title money would go to the State Highway Patrol within the transportation budget. The patrol budget is funded mainly by motorist fines and fees.
Ticket revenue is down, and the patrol has had difficulty finding a stable, long-term source of funding. The leadership says this fee hike, worth about $31.5 million a year, would solve the problem.
Springfield Rep. Ross McGregor chairs the subcommittee where the proposal is being heard. He says that division on the committee is not particularly partisan this year. Still, people in both parties have qualms.
The chairman, a Republican, is saying some other fee or a smaller increase might be in order. (He notes there is no point in even talking about a tax increase.)
Defenders of the Kasich proposal say it would still leave Ohio below average in title fees, which average $32 in 27 states surveyed, many of which also have other fees Ohio doesn’t, such as for liens and inspections.
Some increase may, indeed, be needed. The Strickland administration proposed giving the patrol more money from the gas tax. Others have talked about increasing penalties for traffic tickets.
Still, the ease with which this particular budget problem was solved, in the eyes of the administration, is striking, given the cuts and the agonizing expected elsewhere in the budget.
The state needs to face an issue raised last year by sheriffs. The legislature had created a task force to look at the highway patrol’s budget. That task force was divided.
A group representing sheriffs made 11 recommendations that weren’t accepted by the task force; a county commissioners group signed on with the sheriffs.
Basically, the sheriffs want the patrol to move back toward basics: patrolling the highways. Accordingly, the sheriffs proposed possible consolidations involving the patrol’s crime lab, training academy and SWAT team, as well as operations in computer crimes, dispatch and intelligence.
That way, say the sheriffs, the patrol could put more officers on the road and be of more help to sheriffs.
Others, however, say that a modern state needs sophisticated operations at the state level, and they question how many counties really need these operations. They say local jurisdictions are sometimes too eager to have the high-prestige units.
What’s troubling here is the suspicion that the state feels under no pressure to resolve the debate, because the patrol can find its own funding through fees and dedicated taxes. That’s a luxury other state agencies don’t have.
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