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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2011 > March > 17 > Entry
Martin Gottlieb: Kasich pays Obama-like price for all out rush
I know I’ve made this general point about politics before. But I seem to be about the only one who makes it. And it’s important. So, just to make sure the horse is dead:
John Kasich is having the same problem in the polls — for the same reason — as Barack Obama in his first year.
He’s pushing an ambitious agenda as fast as he can, and he’s proceeding essentially on a partisan track, attracting fierce opposition from substantial, respected quarters in the capital.
Like Obama, he has taken no time to win public support, concentrating instead on rounding up legislative votes.
Now only 30 percent of independent voters say they approve of his performance; 40 percent of the general public approves. And people seem to be paying unusual attention to politics.
He has actually dropped faster than Obama, presumably because he has acted faster.
The numbers are from the Ohio Poll, out of the University of Cincinnati. They are buttressed by a poll from Public Policy Institute, which is associated with Democrats, that shows Kasich’s approval at 35 percent.
One pollster connected Kasich’s numbers to his position on the budget, noting that more people prefer a mix of spending cuts and tax increases to cuts alone, the Kasich approach.
(The poll was taken before the Kasich budget was released.)
The other pollster connected Kasich’s numbers to the fight over collective bargaining, noting that most voters favor the same rights for public employees as private employees.
Most likely, though, what’s at work is not so much disagreement with specific policies as discomfort with the combative, rancor-inducing, all-out rush.
To find an Ohio governor who had such bad poll numbers so early, you have to go back to Democrat Dick Celeste. He was also the last one who was on such a toot. With control of both houses of the legislature, he pushed on taxes and on collective bargaining.
Every time interesting polls come out, somebody pooh-poohs the whole idea of polls. And, yes, some can be misleading.
But they’re important. The two sides use them to console and rev up their troops and to score their points. Republicans exulted publicly and often when they could report that Obama’s ratings were lower than other presidents at the same stage in their terms.
This time around, Democrats in Ohio will take heart from the first hard numbers about public opinion since the 2010 election, which provided numbers they didn’t like.
But polls change.
Ultimately, the headlong rush is not necessarily a death knell. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had hard-driving first years, bad early polls and tough midterm elections, but came back to be re-elected easily.
Nor is the absence of a divisive agenda a surefire route to political success. Ask Ted Strickland.
So what do the polls portend? Do Kasich’s poll numbers suggest he’s heading for an Obama-like slapdown in the midterm elections?
Not necessarily, even if he hasn’t recovered in the polls by then. That election will come in the presidential year, and the presidential race will play a big role in shaping things.
Still, the possibility does arise that by 2012, we will have two parties — both nationally and in Ohio — that the people have told, in various ways, to get over themselves. The message could be that they should not affirmation in the election of 2008 or 2010, depending on the party.
The polls shows that when politicians claim a mandate for their world view even when they win without a landslide — Obama or Kasich — they are ignoring the fundamental nature of the independent voters who provide their margin of victory.
Those votes don’t intend to give anybody any ideological mandate.
Of course, governors or presidents can legitimately proceed anyway, in the confidence that they know what’s best in the long run. But one possibility is that they’ll send the independent voters back the other way in a desperate effort to thwart both parties.
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