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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2011 > April > 27 > Entry
Martin Gottlieb: How quickly they forgot Ken Blackwell
Ohio Republicans should welcome Ken Blackwell back to electoral politics with open arms.
That’s kind of a tough sell.
When he lost a race for governor in 2006, getting just under 37 percent of the vote, it was the most overwhelming defeat in memory in a major statewide race that didn’t involve an incumbent. You had to go back to John Glenn’s first victory to find one of that size.
In a tightly balanced state like Ohio, such losses just don’t happen unless one party has basically given up, putting up an unfunded no-name against a popular incumbent (or national hero). But Blackwell was no no-name.
He was a national conservative celebrity, a television talker, universally seen as a comer, besides being a longtime officeholder. He was the future, and he had been for a long time.
But that was then.
His statement of interest in running for the U.S. Senate against Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2012 is not exactly a dream come true for some party leaders.
Big players in the party have been encouraging newly elected state Treasurer Josh Mandel. A group of staunch conservatives — leaders and former leaders in the likes of the Tea Party, Ohio Right to Life and Citizens for Community Values Action (the Phil Burress group out of Cincinnati) — has tried to “draft” him.
That’s Blackwell’s natural constituency.
And that happened remarkably early, as if the whole point was to avoid a primary.
Blackwell seemed to have disappeared from the consciousness of his own people. That’s intriguing, because he has spent the intervening years burnishing his conservative credentials.
He’s been with the Family Research Council, the group that gay organizations associate with a fellow who thinks gay sex should be prosecuted. Blackwell has served with the Club for Growth and National Taxpayers Union, written conservative columns for a conservative website and worked with the Buckeye Institute, a conservative think tank.
One might have expected him to take a different course after 2006. After all, nobody saw him as insufficiently conservative. If he was still interested in elective office in Ohio, he might have decided to get involved in some nonpartisan issues, say economic development for Ohio’s stricken cities and Appalachia.
But even the Buckeye Institute connection has ended as he has focused on the national scene. He’s also written books, co-authoring “The Blueprint: Obama’s Plan to Subvert the Constitution and Build an Imperial Presidency.” Another is coming out in May.
The draft-Mandel effort notwithstanding, Blackwell has been leading in polls among Republican voters.
Would his return hurt the party? The rap on primaries is that they risk dividing the party; and they risk using up money and energy that will be needed in the general election. In fact, though, the rap is wrong. Thirty years ago, a researcher found that Senate candidates who were nominated by the party that didn’t hold the seat in question were more likely to win in November if they had been through a tough primary.
A victory in a tough race can add to the stature of the nominee and make him or her more visible. (Also, the very fact of a primary is an indication the incumbent is seen as vulnerable; that’s an indication the incumbent might actually be vulnerable.)
Blackwell, 63, made some Republican critics in his day. That’s part of the explanation for the fact that the establishment didn’t reach out to him for 2012.
Also, some politicians think Mandel is a particularly strong candidate because of his Marine service in Iraq. A primary against Blackwell could test that. If Mandel wins, he’ll be all the stronger.
But if the case for Mandel, 33, is that he gives the conservatives what they want, somebody’s going to have to explain not going with somebody who’s done that for a long longer.
Ken Blackwell is forgotten, but not gone.
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