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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2011 > May > 29 > Entry
Martin Gottlieb: New York race worth look for Turner and his foes
New York’s 26th Congressional District has certain things in common with Ohio’s 3rd, represented by Mike Turner, R-Centerville.
The 26th is one that got national attention when a Democrat upset the norm last Tuesday, May 24, and won a congressional seat in a special election.
This led to the usual spinfest
about what caused the outcome. Democrats said it was a reaction to the new Republican plan to replace Medicare. Republicans said it was mainly about a third candidate messing things up, the weakness of the Republican candidate and other factors.
Give House Speaker John Boehner credit. He granted that the Medicare issue was a part, if only a “small part,” of the explanation for his party’s loss. It’s a pretty important concession, given that 40 Senate Republicans just joined nearly all their House colleagues in voting for the idea.
The easiest, best way to get a feel for the political nature of a congressional district is to look at its presidential votes. The 26th, which stretches from the suburbs of Buffalo to the suburbs of Rochester, went for John McCain in 2008 by six percentage points. It went for George W. Bush by 12 in 2004 and seven in 2000. Political analyst Charles Cook says that, all other things being equal, a Republican has a six-point advantage there.
The Cook number for Ohio’s 3rd District, held comfortably by Turner for almost a decade, is five points. The 3rd went for McCain by four points.
So we’re talking about two districts that are Republican, but not all that Republican. So if you’re Turner, you might take note of what happened in New York.
After all, Turner voted for the proposal to replace Medicare.
He also supports repealing the Barack Obama health care program. Of the three candidates in the New York race, the only one who opposed repealing the Obama plan was the winner.
So is Turner in trouble in 2012? Most likely not. There was no incumbent running in the 26th. And Turner has special political strengths, having been the Republican mayor of the Democratic core city in his district (Dayton), besides being very popular with Republicans.
Moreover, it’s hard to see who the Democrats might challenge him with.
And the district is likely to be more Republican after redistricting, a process in the works.
And yet, Democratic Party leaders — national, state and local — would be seriously remiss if they don’t look especially hard for a credible candidate to take him on. In the past, that’s hardly been worthwhile.
The politicians in both parties saw that. To beat an incumbent, you need to find a special problem for him, something that resonates not just with your own party, but with independents. An issue. A scandal. Old age. Something.
There’s hasn’t been anything. Turner’s been skillful, energetic, attendant to local interests, and successful at shaping a reputation of relative moderation.
But now?
Beside Medicare, there’s the General Motors thing.
Obama seems to have simply saved GM and Chrysler, that is, most of the American auto industry. The companies are profitable and paying back their debt.
(In fact, helped by Toyota’s blunders and the Japanese earthquake/tsunami, GM is once again the biggest auto company in the world in sales.)
Lots of people were ready to simply write GM off, to let it go bankrupt and let whatever happened happen, including to the company’s suppliers all around the Midwest. Turner opposed using federal bailout money on the auto companies.
And he went further. He was so appalled by what Obama did — taking majority ownership of GM for a while — that he put forth a constitutional amendment to prevent future presidents from doing anything like that.
What might be the political fallout from that. Well, obviously Dayton is no longer a GM town in the way it once was. But there are still some connections.
Another possible issue: Turner voted for a budget bill that was even more conservative than one promoted by Boehner and the Republican leadership. He supported Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Urbana, in his call for steeper cuts. Even Rep. Steve Austria, R-Beavercreek, about whom the word moderate isn’t used, opposed that.
Still, Turner may not be beatable in anything but a huge Democratic year nationally. And even if that kind of year happens, not just anybody would be able to beat him.
But the Democrats do have more going for them than ever.
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