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1% dip forecasted in holiday retail sales

But experts do not believe holiday sales in 2009 will be as bad as last year’s 4.5% slide.

According to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services unemployment rates are higher than they were this time last year, yet holiday spending is only predicted to dip slightly.

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By Ben Sutherly and Tim Tresslar 
Staff Writers Updated 7:32 PM Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Not great, but not awful, either.

That’s the consensus of retail analysts, who look for holiday retail sales to remain flat or only shrink slightly this year despite high unemployment and economic worries.

“This is not going to be a disaster Christmas, first of all,” said Robert Premus, a professor of economics at Wright State University. “But it’s not going to be a really great one, either.”

According to the National Retail Federation, an industry trade group, holiday sales this year will total $437.6 billion, down 1 percent from last year. In comparison, sales last year at discount, department, grocery and specialty stores contracted 3.4 percent in November and December even as the economy plunged into freefall.

Retail Forward Inc., a Columbus-based market research and management consulting firm, forecasts holiday sales will stay flat this year. Though no growth would mark the industry’s second-worst performance in 42 years, it still would mark an improvement from 2008 when holiday sales shrank 4.5 percent.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-7317 or ttresslar@DaytonDailyNews.com.