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For anti-sprawl advocates like Gene Krebs, the news that the Ohio Department of Transportation will begin falling short of revenues for construction projects in 2009 is both a crisis and an opportunity.

With gas prices rising, oil production peaking and the highway construction industry facing double-digit inflation, Krebs and his land-use reform group Greater Ohio are hoping ODOT officials will begin to recognize there are more ways than just highways to move people and freight around.

"ODOT needs to get away from the highway department mentality and get into a people-moving mentality," he said. "We're going to have to look at streetcars in the city and high-speed rail between major metropolitan areas."

ODOT's 2008-09 Business Plan, released last week, shows the agency faces a $114 million shortfall beginning in 2009 that could climb to $3.5 billion by 2015, with major construction projects losing half of their needed funding by that year.

Oil price increases are mostly to blame. Gas tax revenues, which account for the bulk of ODOT's funding, have flattened as motorists drive less and switch to higher mileage vehicles. Meanwhile, highway and bridge construction costs have climbed 41 percent in four years, thanks to higher energy costs and competition with India and China for building materials.

The shortfall already has led to political wrangling in Columbus. Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland's administration blames the previous Republican administration for not adjusting ODOT's budget for inflation, over-committing to major new projects and stripping as much as $1 billion from future budgets for repairs and maintenance.

But Republican Speaker of the House Jon Husted, R-Kettering, said the Republicans in the House had a plan to solve the problem for the next budget biennium, but it was rejected by the Democrats.

None of this is comforting for local government officials and citizens who are counting on major road improvements over the next decade.

"Obviously, we have some serious concerns," said Donald Spang, executive director of the Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission.

The $670 million modernization of Dayton's Interstate 75 corridor is under way, with Phase I set to eliminate Malfunction Junction. But Phases II and III — which will add an extra lane in both directions through the region and improve downtown ramps — are considered new projects and may be in jeopardy, according to Spang.

Spang said a big reason Dayton-area voters supported the state's 6-cents-a-gallon gas tax increase in 2004 was the promise that Interstate 75 would be improved. "There is a dramatic need for that corridor to be modernized," he said. "It's handling 125,000 vehicles a day when it was designed for only 60,000."

ODOT officials say they have committed to all repair and maintenance projects, but have put on hold any new major road projects until those already funded have begun construction. Funding for current projects is guaranteed for the next two years, but many projects are spread out much longer, some to 2015.

ODOT spokesman Scott Varner said the agency will soon organize a statewide task force of citizen groups, government officials and industry representatives to set priorities for new construction projects and to look at long-term solutions to the shortfall, including "new and innovative ways of financing" Ohio's transportation needs.

Those options could include creating toll roads and charging developers more of the costs associated with access to and increased traffic around new businesses, he said.

But Krebs believes ODOT has been backed into a tax revenue corner. Truckers and motorists will avoid toll roads by using other routes. Another tax generator — hiking registration fees on new vehicles — will lead many Ohio residents to register their cars through family and friends living in neighboring states.

Simply raising the gasoline tax will create even more incentives for motorists to curtail driving and purchase higher mileage vehicles — a demand that the auto industry is poised to meet, Krebs said. On the cost side, ODOT will face increasing competition for oil and building materials from rapidly developing countries like China, India, Malaysia and Singapore, adding to inflationary pressures on prices, Krebs said.

"It's a perfect storm" for a continuing budget crisis for ODOT, Krebs said.

ODOT's top managers say they're committed to exploring alternatives to new highway construction, including rails, urban transit and waterways. The 42-page Business Plan calls for "a new commitment to a multi-modal approach to modernizing the state's transportation system" and "a sensitivity to the environment," including a requirement that all new construction projects be evaluated for their land-use impact before they can be funded.

Andrew Bremer, executive director of the rail passenger advocacy group All Aboard Ohio, said his talks with Strickland administration officials have assured him they are serious about "all different forms of transportation."

But changing long-ingrained attitudes among ODOT's civil servants may be difficult, Krebs said. And before Ohio can divert from its endless highway expansion, suburban sprawl and big-box retail construction, many agencies will have to change, not just ODOT, Krebs said.

The Ohio Public Works Commission will have to stop funding water and sewer lines in unincorporated areas. The Department of Development will have to revise its Job Ready Sites requirement of a minimum of 200 acres for development. The Ohio School Facilities Commission will have to encourage construction of new buildings in densely populated areas rather than busing students to the outskirts of town.

"It will take a completely integrated approach" to land use and transportation planning, Krebs said.

But Bremer fears the biggest obstacle to change is the same one facing new highway construction — lack of money. "We are dismayed that there may be a shortage of funds down the line to implement these multi-modal packages."