DAYTON — Not all manufacturing jobs in the Dayton area will feel the bite during the anticipated recession, said Kathy Trautman, manager of Manpower Inc. for the Dayton Metropolitan Group.

"Even though there are layoffs, there are still a lot of design and development jobs" in the manufacturing sector. "We have no problem placing people with degrees."

You don't have to tell Dayton resident Greg Lattimore there's a recession coming. He's been trying since January to find assembly or bench work. "For every job, there are at least 100 applicants or more. It's like hitting the lottery."

Lonnie Osborne, on the other hand, is confident his nursing position at a local hospital can survive any recession. "You can call staffing and get as many hours as you want."

With economists forecasting 6 percent unemployment before the nation's job engine sputters back to life early next year, as many as 2 million Americans could lose their jobs. Finding a safe haven in the coming downturn depends on what kind of work you do and in which industry, local and national experts say.

Thanks to aging baby boomers, health care jobs are perhaps safest of all, accounting for seven of Ohio's 14 fastest growing occupations, according to the Dept. of Job and Family Services. Next safest are information technology positions, with five of the state's top 14 growth rates. Safer havens also include education and engineering.

At highest risk are low-skilled jobs in manufacturing, especially in the auto industry. General Motors Corp., which has an assembly plant in Moraine, reported U.S. sales were down 19 percent in March compared with a year ago.

Meanwhile, the housing slump is taking its toll on the construction, real estate and finance industries.

Helping to offset the bad news locally is the expansion at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, said Jim Leftwich of the Dayton Development Coalition. The base started $230 million in construction projects this year, with another $80 million to begin next year.

Career counselors agree that upgrading your skills, particularly in math and critical thinking, is the best insurance against recession.

Jeff Verrillo took a buy-out at GM's Moraine truck plant two years ago and earned a degree in computer-aided manufacturing at Sinclair Community College last fall. Now he's programming robots at the GE aircraft engine plant near Cincinnati.

"I feel way more secure these days," he said.

Verrillo had gone straight to work at the GM plant following his graduation from Butler High School in 1994. But after 11 years on the assembly line, "I just hated it," he said.

Verrillo enrolled full-time at Sinclair its computer-aided machinery program. In June of last year, Sinclair found him a cooperative job with the GE aircraft engine plant in Evendale.

Having earned his associates degree, Verrillo said GE recently offered him a full-time spot the moment one comes open. He not only has greater job security now but a job that he loves.

"I go to work everyday with a smile on my face," he said.

The Dayton area continues to suffer from a shortage of engineers as well as technically skilled workers who can program and operate computer-aided machinery, job counselors and economic development experts say.

Sinclair Community College offers a one-year certificate or two-year degree in computer-aided machining through its Computer Numerical Control program. "We can't fill those jobs fast enough," said Deb Norris, Sinclair's vice president for workforce development.

University of Dayton officials were surprised to see so many manufacturing firms recruiting this year's graduates, "but they were looking specifically for engineers and engineering technologists," said Chris Wiley, UD's associate director of employer relations.

While manufacturing jobs are hurting in the auto industry, those related to health care and the aircraft industry are booming, experts say.

"Manufacturers in the Dayton area that have been able to tap into the health care field — precision tools, replacement joints, medical supplies, surgical instruments — are doing well," Trautman said.

Companies in every sector, including manufacturing, are looking for people with information technology skills, especially in data security and Web design, she said. "We have more requests than we can find talent for."

The Dayton area's information technology sector will get a big boost from Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in coming years. The base will award $700 million in contracts over the next six years for the National Air & Space Intelligence Center, Leftwich said. The top-secret center analyzes classified defense information and reports on it to audiences up to and including the president.

Information technology careers took a hit in the economic downturn in early 2001, "but they have popped back really fast," Trautman said.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2437 or jdebrosse@DaytonDailyNews.com.

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