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Bailout: What now?

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Without a broad government response to the credit crisis, the economy would worsen, analysts say.

Unemployment, currently at a five-year high of 6.1 percent, could rise to double-digit levels as credit dries up.

"Businesses are going to begin shuttering operations and laying off workers," said Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com.

The credit market is where bonds and loans are bought and sold. If it stays tight, that spells trouble for businesses trying to raise cash by selling short-term debt in the coming weeks.

"Without a working credit market, this isn't just a slowdown of the economy — it's essentially a shutdown of the economy," said Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.

All eyes will be on Wall Street today, Sept. 30, to see if the markets plummet again after the Dow fell a record 777.68 points.

A stock market drop takes a bite out of retirement funds and lowers the value of investment portfolios. Also, when uncertainty grips stock investors, the credit markets, which provide the day-to-day lending that powers business in the United States, tighten.

As a result, analysts said the government needs to find a way to help restore confidence in Wall Street.

"It's probably fair to say that we are not going to see any significant stability in the credit markets or the stock market until we see some sort of rescue package passed," said Fred Dickson, director of retail research for D.A. Davidson & Co.

The sale of Wachovia's deposits and other assets to Citigroup on Monday leaves the nation with three superbanks, reshaping the U.S. banking landscape in the midst of unprecedented financial upheaval.

The changes may bring customers of Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase higher fees on everything from checking accounts to bounced checks and overdrafts, and lower interest-rate yields on deposits, banking experts said.

The collapse of financial giants has prompted widespread jitters about the safety of bank funds.

Consumers can take solace, however, in FDIC insurance that safeguards up to $100,000 per account and covers IRA accounts up to $250,000.

On Capitol Hill, Democratic leaders said the House would reconvene at noon Thursday, Oct. 2, in hopes of a quick vote on a reworked version. All sides agreed Monday that the bill could not be abandoned.

Neither the House nor the Senate will vote today because of the Jewish New Year, but the Senate could debate the measure. Before Monday's House vote, the Senate had been expected to vote Wednesday.

With only 34 of 100 seats up for re-election Nov. 4, the Senate is expected to pass the legislation easily.

"A lot of people have misgivings," said Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., one of the Senate's leading conservative voices. "I have a lot of misgivings, but I'm still going to vote for it."

Look for the U.S. housing market crisis to be deeper, longer and scarier if the legislative deadlock continues.

"If they don't do something, they're going to shut down real estate completely," said Richard Shuman, a Florida real estate agent and mortgage broker. He said he has seen his business dry up in the past week as paralysis gripped the financial system.

Lenders — especially in Ohio — have been burned by record defaults and foreclosures. So, though falling prices make homes more affordable, potential buyers don't qualify for a mortgage unless they have the best credit.

"How many people are going to sit down and say: 'You know honey, it's a good time to buy a house?' " asked Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Virginia.

Sources: Associated Press and New York Times

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