DaytonDailyNews.com

Two local educators with ties to South Asia said the assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto is tragic, but it may not have much of a long-term effect on day-to-day life in Pakistan.

"There's likely to be real turbulence in the short term because Benazir Bhutto is so popular," said Surinder Jain, associate dean for science, mathematics and engineering at Sinclair Community College. "But what permanent impact it will have is probably not much. This country is used to this sort of violence."

Bhutto, 54, a former prime minister of Pakistan, returned to the country this fall after years of exile, and was campaigning for parliamentary elections scheduled for Jan. 8 when she was killed Thursday. A blast triggered by a suicide bomber killed at least 20 others at the political rally where Bhutto was killed.

Jain grew up in the Punjab region of India near the Pakistani border and has lived in the Dayton area and taught at Sinclair since the 1980s. He said he is an engineer, not a political expert, but he follows developments in South Asia.

"There have been a lot of ups and downs in Pakistan over the years, and there has always been violence and lately terrorism," Jain said. "Her father, Zulfikar Bhutto, was killed, too. He was prime minister before he was deposed in a coup, and he was executed later.

"Being involved in politics in Pakistan has always meant being in danger."

Pramod Kantha is a professor of political science at Wright State University and an expert in South Asian politics. He, too, said Bhutto's death probably won't mark a major change; it's just the latest chapter in Pakistan's violent history.

It probably will derail the planned Jan. 8 elections, though, he said. Kantha said Bhutto was the head of the PPP, the Pakistan People's Party founded by her father, and there is no one poised to take her place.

"It's the dynastic nature of Pakistani politics that the descendant of the former prime minister would still be heading the party," Kantha said. "Unfortunately, since the leadership has always focused on Benazir Bhutto personally, nobody knows who will succeed her."

Bhutto, who was Pakistan's first female prime minister, has often been the target of hostility from Muslim fundamentalists, and religious groups were implicated in an October attack at a Bhutto rally where 140 were killed.

It would be tragic if religious factions killed Bhutto, but Kantha said the worst-case scenario for the United States in Bhutto's death would be if President Pervez Musharraf or his supporters were implicated in the assassination. Musharraf has been an ally to the U.S. in the war on terrorism, and U.S. policy recently has focused on promoting reconciliation between supporters of Musharraf and Bhutto.

"Bhutto's death leaves a vacuum at the head of the PPP," Kantha said. "The United States wouldn't be able to keep supporting Musharraf if he was involved in the incident. Our Pakistan policy would be left with nowhere to go."

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2395 or jcummings@DaytonDailyNews.com.