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WASHINGTON — The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives could have casualties in Ohio, where Republicans now hold 12 seats and Democrats six.

Political observers say the climate here — unhappiness over the Iraq war, a soft economy, President Bush's low poll numbers and scandals involving the state's Republican administration — amount to harsh conditions for the GOP.

"To me, it's just a question of how bad it will be for Republicans," said Amy Walter, who analyzes U.S. House races for the Cook Political Report. "In this kind of environment, in a state like Ohio, I'm convinced I should not be surprised by anything."

In a best-case scenario for Republicans, she said, they would lose only two Ohio seats.

The worst case? "I don't know," she said. "Four?"

Indeed, some established incumbents are fighting for their political lives:

• In central Ohio's 15th U.S. House District, Rep. Deborah Pryce, the fourth-highest ranking House Republican, appears to be in one of the state's toughest races. She faces Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy.

In recent weeks, Pryce took to the streets with a bullhorn to challenge Democrat Kilroy to a debate, a move that, as much as anything, says hers is a tight race.

Pryce has also been attacked for her friendship with former Rep. Mark Foley of Florida, who resigned amid reports he sent sexually explicit messages to former congressional pages. And she is being targeted by outside groups, such as MoveOn.org and the Campaign for America's Future.

• In the 18th District in eastern Ohio, currently held by the now-disgraced Rep. Bob Ney of Heath, Republican state Sen. Joy Padgett also faces a tough challenge, from Dover law director Zack Space, Democrat. Political scientists say Ney's scandals — he pleaded guilty this month to federal corruption charges — hurt Padgett's chances, despite her own legislative history. She's also been marred by questions about how she handled the 2005 bankruptcy of her and her husband's office-supply business in Coshocton.

• U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi, the Republican congressman from Ohio's 12th Congressional District, faces a surprisingly scrappy challenge from former U.S. Rep. Bob Shamansky, who has aired sometimes-quirky ads attacking Tiberi as a rubber-stamp for President Bush — a common theme among Democratic congressional challengers. Shamansky has put more than $1 million of his own money into the race.

• In the Cincinnati-area, Republican Reps. Steve Chabot in the 1st District and Jean Schmidt in the 2nd also have strong Democratic challenges. Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley is opposing Chabot and Victoria Wulsin, a medical doctor, is running against Schmidt, who is seeking her first full-term. Wulsin's campaign said a poll this month gave Wulsin a 3-point lead, right at the poll's margin for error.

Three open seats in Ohio are likely to stay in the hands of the incumbent's party. Running strong are:

• State Sen. Jim Jordan, R-Urbana, in the seat now held by Rep. Mike Oxley, R-Findlay.

• Democrat Betty Sutton in the northeast Ohio seat formerly held by U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, who is running for U.S. Senate.

• State Sen. Charlie Wilson, Democrat, for the seat held by Rep. Ted Strickland, Democratic candidate for governor.

The National Republican Congressional Committee recently decided not to concentrate its firepower on that race, which has Wilson against state Rep. Chuck Blasdel, R-East Liverpool. Instead it and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have focused on the Padgett-Space, Pryce-Kilroy and Chabot-Cranley races.

Those three races all had garnered more than $2 million from outside groups, including the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as of Oct. 23.

Those groups also have put more than $1 million into the Wilson-Blasdel race, as well as into the 2nd District Wulsin-Schmidt race.

Contact this reporter at (202) 887-8328 or jwehrman@coxnews.com