COLUMBUS — The effect of a hot-button ballot issue on the presidential election in crucial Ohio will be tested again this year if a mandatory sick-day proposal qualifies, experts say.

Just as the 2004 election of President Bush was shaped in part on turnout for an issue banning gay marriages, Barack Obama should benefit from the sick-day issue, which is strongly backed by several Democrat-embracing unions.

The issue would require companies with at least 25 employees to give them seven sick days per year, with any unused sick time to be carried over to the next year.

Backers have until Aug. 6 to collect the 120,683 signatures to put the issue on the ballot alongside Obama and Republican John McCain on Nov. 4. So far, about 100,000 have been collected, campaign spokesman Dale Butland said Thursday.

It has the support of the United Auto Workers, United Steelworkers and the Service Employees International Union, among other groups. Those unions have become adept at getting out the vote, especially for Democratic candidates.

In 2004, the Citizens for Community Values, a Cincinnati-based group that pushed the gay marriage ban, sent 2.5 million bulletins to 17,000 churches statewide. It also recruited then-Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, a Bush campaign co-chairman, to record an automated phone call that went to millions of homes.

The ban passed with 62 percent of the vote in an election in which 72 percent of eligible voters went to the polls.

A survey following the election by political scientists at four universities found that in the 11 states with gay marriage bans on the ballot, the mobilizing effect of the ballot measures increased the probability of voting for Bush by 15 percentage points, but the theory has been disputed.

Bush won the state 51 percent to 49 percent over Democrat John Kerry and received the electoral votes he needed to claim a second term. Both Bush and the gay marriage ban were much stronger in rural Ohio than in urban areas.

Obama backers are hoping the sick days issue can perform for them, but the issue itself could be the main draw for certain voters, said Daniel Smith, a Florida State University political scientist who specializes in ballot issues.

"It may bring people out because they're hurting in the pocketbook," Smith said.

Although only three Legislature-approved issues are guaranteed ballot spots, campaigns are under way to bring casino gambling to southwest Ohio, repeal Ohio's new restrictions on payday loans and prohibit employers from deducting an employee's wages for political campaigns without the employee's permission.

Some are set, others still in the works

Issues either qualifying or with campaigns under way for the Nov. 4 ballot in Ohio:

QUALIFIED

A $400 million bond package, part of a $1.57 billion economic stimulus plan approved by Gov. Ted Strickland and the Legislature.

A constitutional amendment that would strengthen Ohio's private property laws and allow the state to join seven other states and two Canadian provinces in the Great Lakes Compact.

An amendment to election law that would extend the deadline for qualifying a ballot issue from 90 days before the election to 125 days.

NOT QUALIFIED

A change in Ohio law that would require companies with more than 25 employees to offer seven days of sick leave each year.

A constitutional amendment that would authorize the construction of one casino in Clinton County in southwest Ohio.

A constitutional amendment that would prohibit employers from deducting employee wages for political campaigns without permission of the employee.

Sources: Ohio secretary of state, attorney general

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