DAYTON — Some experts believe the modest job creation the Dayton area experienced in 2011 will continue in the new year.

But even that positive news is weighed down with qualifiers: While one state survey shows a small growth in jobs, another one shows a larger decline. By either measure, local employment is down over the 12-month period ending in November. And a recent Manpower survey of employers found greater Dayton has one of the weakest job outlooks in the nation for early 2012.

The area has struggled to claw its way out of deep unemployment caused by the auto industry collapse, corporate consolidations and the recession.

In 2011, there was none of the mass layoffs that jolted the region in 2008 and 2009, when General Motors, Delphi and NCR Corp. shuttered plants and offices. Experts said some companies resumed hiring, but gains were offset by layoffs of public-sector workers.

Results for December won’t be in until late this month, but employment in the four-county Dayton metro area edged up 1,600 jobs to 369,600 from January to November, according to a survey of households by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services and the U.S. Census Bureau.

“It looks like there was a little bit of positive growth,” said Richard Stock, director of the Business Research Group at the University of Dayton. “ ... That has implications for (continued growth) next year (2012).”

The metro area comprising Montgomery, Miami, Greene and Preble counties saw the jobless rate drop from 10.6 percent in January to 8.3 percent in November, slightly below Ohio’s 8.5 percent rate and the U.S. rate of 8.6 percent. However, officials said the improvement was largely attributable to the 8,200 people who went back to school, retired, left the area or became discouraged and quit looking for work. The total area labor force was 403,200 in November.

The 12-month period ending in November was more grim, with the local labor force plunging by 13,600 and the number of those with jobs dropping by 5,800. Statewide, the labor force declined by 61,000 while those with jobs rose by 9,000, according to the household survey.

A separate survey of businesses also shows the Dayton area lagged behind nation and the state as a whole. In that survey, conducted by ODJFS and the U.S. Department of Labor, statewide employment rose by 45,000 jobs from January to November and 75,600 jobs from November 2010 to November 2011 — still small increases for a state with more than 5 million total workers. Meanwhile, the Dayton area’s total employment fell by 3,500 since January and 1,300 since November 2010, the survey showed.

ODJFS spokesman Benjamin Johnson said the Dayton area’s job losses were mostly in the manufacturing, construction and leisure and hospitality industries. There also has been a wave of government layoffs as the public sector responds to declining tax revenues caused by earlier private sector cuts, he said.

“The recession first changed the fiscal reality in the private sector, and that changed the fiscal reality in the public sector,” Johnson said.

Stock said he expects the local unemployment rate to “creep down” in tandem with the national rate in 2012, with job creation that’s “not great, maybe in the 2,000-4,000 range.”

“The real threat is the continued squeeze on the local government sector as the state continues to balance its budget on the back of local governments,” he said, adding the area has lost 3,400 public jobs in the last year.

Lucius Plant, workforce development director for the Montgomery County Job Center, said public-sector jobs took an unusually big hit in 2011. But he said private-sector layoffs were fewer and smaller in number, and there was a “resurgence” in employers seeking new hires through the center. “It’s not like it was seven or eight years ago, but it was definitely more (hiring) activity.”

Local hospitals and other health care providers led the hiring, he said, and some manufacturers have said they can’t find enough qualified workers to fill openings.

Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and the universities have also been economic drivers. Jeff Hoagland, president and chief executive of the Dayton Development Coalition, said officials hope defense-related research and development efforts, including those involving Air Force drones, will create more jobs over the next several years.

One bright spot is the General Electric Co. research and development facility under construction on former NCR land owned by UD. “NCR left, but their leaving (presented) an opportunity,” Hoagland said.

Job growth in 2012 is hardly guaranteed. In fact, a Dec. 13 Manpower Group survey of employers found that metro Dayton has one of the three weakest hiring outlooks in the nation for the first quarter of 2012, along with Fresno, Calif., and Spokane, Wash., all of which forecast a net loss of 4 percent.

But Plant said the positive signs he sees make him optimistic the local job market will pick up in the year to come.

“We’re hoping in the new year there will be a continued effort to get back to regular business,” he said. “I’m hoping I’ll have less to say about downsizing than I’ve had to say in the last few years.”