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Updated: 7:00 a.m. Thursday, July 1, 2010 | Posted: 10:52 p.m. Wednesday, June 30, 2010
By Anthony Gottschlich
Staff Writer
More than half of all adults in the labor force say that since the Great Recession began 30 months ago, they have suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary part-time workers, according to a new survey by the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends Project.
The survey of nearly 3,000 adults in May also found the recession has made Americans more frugal and diminished their expectations about their retirement and their children’s future. Most also believe it will take several years, at a minimum, for their family finances and house values to recover.
The report cites government data showing average household wealth fell by roughly 20 percent from 2007 to 2009, principally because of declining house values and retirement accounts. This is the biggest meltdown in U.S. household wealth in the post-World War II era.
Thomas L. Traynor, an economics professor at Wright State University, said the Pew findings likely reflect Dayton-area trends and sentiments as well.
“There’s no question that what’s been going on nationally has been going on here,” said Traynor, who produces an economic report on the Dayton region.
The survey found most Americans, 54 percent, believe the U.S. economy is still in recession; 41 percent say it’s starting to come out of the recession and 3 percent say the recession is over. They might all be right, according to Traynor.
“Technically we’re out of the recession, but the economy is still underperforming,” said Traynor, noting rather flat growth and, while dropping, high unemployment rates. Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of just 2.7 percent in the first quarter this year, government data show. The unemployment rate, not seasonally adjusted, was 9.3 percent nationally in May and 11.1 percent in Montgomery County.
The Pew Center noted a bit of optimism in its report. About 62 percent believe their personal finances will improve in the coming year. A small but growing minority, 15 percent, now says the national economy is in good shape.
Contact this reporter at (937) 225-7408 or agottschlich@ DaytonDailyNews.com.
In another sign of tepid growth, U.S. private-sector firms created a lackluster 13,000 jobs in June, according to the employment report released Wednesday by payroll company ADP.
Hiring was “disappointingly weak” in June, said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which produces the report from anonymous data supplied by ADP.
Some economists lowered their estimates for this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report after the weak ADP numbers, and others said the risks had risen that Friday’s report could be weaker than they are forecasting.
— MarketWatch
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