National and local retailers are gearing up for the pivotal back-to-school shopping season against a backdrop of conflicting national estimates of how much families will spend this year.

The National Retail Federation predicted in its Back-to-School Survey late this week that U.S. parents are planning to spend an average of $689 on clothes and school supplies for their children this year, a 14 percent increase over last year. But other observers are less optimistic: a report earlier in the week from Citi Investment Research suggested that retailers will face a challenging back-to-school shopping season because “empty-pocket” consumers are finding ways to save on necessary purchases to stretch their discretionary spending.

Back-to-school shopping is the second-busiest consumer spending time of the year, behind the Christmas season. A busy fall for retailers can be a positive indicator for the holiday-shopping season.

Dave Duebber, general manager of the Dayton Mall, said tenants of his retail center are in “full swing” with back-to-school sales and merchandise. “We’re optimistic, and so are they,” Duebber said.

Duebber noted that some school districts, including Kettering and Centerville, are starting classes earlier this year, in mid-August. That means parents and their children may spend time and money in the summer clearance aisles buying warm-weather clothing before heading to the fall-clothing racks.

“Some of our retailers are recognizing that, and they are blending some of their summer clearance items with their more traditional back-to-school merchandise,” Duebber said.

In the end, great sales are retailers’ best marketing tool, the mall manager said.

“It’s going to come down to price, as it has for the last couple of years.”