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Posted: 12:01 a.m. Friday, Jan. 4, 2013

Stocks: A surprising ride in 2012

By Thomas Gnau

Staff Writer

Despite sluggish economies in the United States and abroad, stocks still put on a strong show in 2012 — a surprising show.

The three main indices for stock performance all ended the year higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year up rose 7.3 percent, its fourth straight year of gains. The S&P 500 climbed 13.4 percent, its best performance since 2009, while the technology-laden Nasdaq Index bested them all, rising 16 percent, better than average performance.

Several stocks of area interest also performed exceptionally well.

“The strength of the market in 2012 surprised me,” Carl Chen, the University of Dayton William J. Hoben finance professor, said in an email interview with the Dayton Daily News. “It has also surprised many Wall Street professionals.”

But the 2012 equity markets didn’t enjoy a steady rise, Chen noted. Stocks tended to do better in the first quarter. But by June, many of the year’s gains had been surrendered. The Dow hit 12,101 in early June, then The third quarter and the latter half of the fourth quarter were strong.

“Given the economic situations worldwide, it could have been worse,” Chen said.

Despite an economy that seemed at times to stall, there are solid companies bringing in revenue and enjoying strong cash flow, said Steve Wenstrup, principal with Centerville investment advisors Tillar-Wenstrup Advisors LLC.

“There are a lot of decent companies out there,” Wenstrup said.

Several companies of interest to area investors were among the stronger performers.

The share price of Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC), a crude oil refiner that was spun off from Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) in June 2011, rose nearly 89 percent in trading last year. Marathon Petroleum is the parent of Enon-based Speedway LLC, operator of numerous Speedway service stations throughout the area.

The share price of Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN), owner of the Kings Island and Cedar Point amusement parks, rose more than 53 percent.

Federal Signal, which sold toolmaker Dayton Progress in 2008, saw its share price (NYSE: FSS) rise almost 79 percent.

Shelby County-based bus and recreational vehicle manufacturer Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) saw its share price rise 34.8 percent in 2012.

Wenstrup noted that the immediate Dayton area no longer is home to the headquarters of as many publicly traded companies as it once was, but shares of Data warehousing powerhouse Teradata (NYSE: TDC), based in Miami Twp., enjoyed a rise of nearly 25 percent.

But there were laggards as well. Dayton-based Standard Register, for example, saw its share price fall 73 percent.

AK Steel, based in West Chester, sustained a 46 drop in share price last year.

Wenstrup said his criteria for spotting possible winners in the market includes “quality companies (that) have a lot of cash on the balance sheet” and “good cash flow,” he said.

Chen believes a few factors contributed to a better-than-expected showing in 2012. The nation and the world are still recovering from what he called “the 2009 financial abyss,” and the Federal Reserve has continued its “easy money policy.”

Fears of a European debt crisis have eased as well, said Chen, who he sees a real estate recovery at work, too.

All of this led to what he called “more aggressive” investors.

Wenstrup said politicians in Washington were able to come to an agreement on legally required tax increases and spending cuts — the so-called “fiscal cliff.”

“I didn’t really doubt they were going to come to a solution by the end of the year,” he said.


Stocks of area interest

Biggest winners in 2012

Marathon Petroleum, up 88.5 percent

Federal Signal, up 78.6 percent

Cedar Fair, up 53.3 percent

Packaging Corp. of America, up 52.7 percent

Dean Foods, up 51.4 percent

Biggest losers in 2012

Standard Register, down 73.4 percent

AK Steel, down 46.3 percent

JC Penney, down 43.7 percent

Hill-Rom Holdings Inc., down 16.8 percent

Raven Industries, down 16.7 percent

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