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Poll finds young people restless, want to leave state

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By Howard Wilkinson, Cincinnati Enquirer Updated 6:46 PM Saturday, September 25, 2010

With early voting set to begin Tuesday, a Dayton Daily News/Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters shows the governor’s race is close while the Republicans are safely ahead in the U.S. Senate race.

But even as Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland appears to have closed the gap from earlier polls, his support is less solid than that of Republican challenger John Kasich, the former central Ohio congressman and Fox TV host.

Kasich leads Strickland 49 to 45 percent, according to the poll of 852 likely Ohio voters conducted last week by the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research. However, 55 percent of Strickland supporters said they could change their minds before election day, while it was only 45 percent for Kasich. Six percent said they were undecided on the race.

In the contest to replace retiring Republican George Voinovich in the U.S. Senate, Republican Rob Portman, a former U.S. Congressman and Bush administration official, leads Democratic Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 55 to 40 percent.

“All this shows that Lee Fisher has a very steep hill to climb if he is to get back into this race,’’ said Eric Rademacher, the institute’s co-director.

The Daily News and the state’s seven other largest newspapers commissioned the poll as part of an effort to give voters throughout the state the most complete information possible on this year’s election. In addition to the head-to-head match-ups, the poll measured voters’ attitudes on quality of life, the economy and the state’s budget.

Half of young adults want to leave

The poll found most likely voters in Ohio like living here, but younger voters tend to be less satisfied.

Overall 68 percent said they consider Ohio to be either an “excellent” or “good” place to live, and a clear majority — 57 percent — said there is no real difference in the quality of life here than elsewhere.

Three out of 10 said they would move to another state if they could.

Ohio’s population has grown in recent years, but not nearly at the rate of most states; the state ranked 47th in population growth from July 2008 to July 2009, according to U.S. census data.

Nearly half of the youngest voters — those between the ages of 18 and 29 — said they would move elsewhere if they could.

Of those 30 to 45 years old, 43 percent say they would like to move from Ohio.

But the biggest single reason given is something well out of any politician’s control: Three of 10 respondents said they want to leave because of the weather.

A combined 36 percent cited economic reasons — lower taxes, better economic conditions and the ability to find a job.

Gus Dooros of Colerain Twp. in suburban Cincinnati is concerned about the so-called brain drain — young people leaving a state they feel doesn’t offer enough opportunities.

Dooros, a high school teacher, said he has two sons just finishing their college educations and worries they may have to move elsewhere to get jobs.

“I suppose they would get jobs at Wal-Mart or someplace like that, but that’s not using the education they have,’’ said Dooros, 55, a self-described independent who said he will vote for the Republican governor and Senate candidates this year. “I’d like for them to have opportunities here.”

Mark Robinson, a Tipp City native who now lives in Portsmouth, echoed the concern about jobs.

“Especially in southern Ohio, all our manufacturing jobs are gone,” said Robinson. “In the Rust Belt here, there’s no industrial base left.”

A registered Democrat, Robinson is leaning toward voting for Strickland in the governor’s race and Portman in the Senate race.

Robinson said he wants to learn more about the candidates’ positions and vote for candidates with “a solid plan to get jobs back in Ohio and put people to work.”

Republicans more fired up

Two years ago after Ohio Democrats rallied behind the first African-American presidential hopeful in the nation’s history, Republicans are the ones showing the most enthusiasm toward their candidates.

Three-quarters of all likely voters said they are either “extremely interested” or “very interested” in this election. But the numbers also show that Republicans are clearly more fired up about going to the polls.

Among Republicans, 86 percent said they are “extremely” or “very” interested in the campaign; among Democrats, that number drops to 65 percent.

“The interest seems to be on the Republican side,’’ Rademacher said. “There’s no question that the numbers show the potential for a big Republican year in Ohio.”

Many Democrats, though, said they are more motivated to vote this year because of the Tea Party movement’s influence.

“These radical ideas the Tea Party people have and trying to undo everything President Obama has accomplished, this scares me,’’ said Nichol Jones, 37, a Democrat from the Cincinnati neighborhood of East Walnut Hills. “We can’t go backward.”

Marcus Harris, 33, a husband and father from Columbus, who is moving from a job in a pharmacy to a new one at a state mental health facility, said he will support Strickland and Fisher because he believes they are more likely to move the state’s economy in the right direction.

“I think they are more likely to create jobs, which is what we need right now,’’ said Harris.

No movement

Not all of Kasich’s supporters blame Strickland for what’s happened in the state, but many said it is time for a change.

“I can’t say it is all Strickland’s fault, but I think there are a lot of things he said he would do that he didn’t follow through on,’’ said 71-year-old Pat Greiner of Canal Winchester, a retired paralegal who will vote for Kasich and Portman.

Dooros, who too will vote Republican this year, agreed.

“I don’t blame (Strickland) entirely for what has happened,’’ he said. “I don’t want to say there is no hope for Ohio, but there is no movement either. It’s time to try something else.”

Dayton Daily News reporter Tom Beyerlein contributed to this report.

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