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Ohio emerging as competitive for upcoming primaries

Candidates likely to visit battleground state ahead of Super Tuesday.

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By Jessica Wehrman and Jack Torry
Washington Bureau Updated 9:28 PM Saturday, February 4, 2012

WASHINGTON — Ohio is emerging as the most competitive of the 10 Super Tuesday states that are holding primaries or caucuses on March 6, and may be a major testing ground for whether Mitt Romney can mount a serious challenge against President Barack Obama in the fall.

Most political analysts believe Romney, who grew up in neighboring Michigan, has a stronger connection to Ohio voters than his three remaining challengers: the more pugnacious former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the socially conservative former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and the Libertarian-leaning Texas congressman Ron Paul.

Although it won’t decide the contest, Ohio will be a home away from home for the candidates over the next several weeks, and a prime venue for political advertising. The reason is political math — no Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio — the nuances of the primary system and the states that are holding contests on the same day as Ohio.

Romney will be an overwhelming favorite to win in Massachusetts while Gingrich’s failure to qualify for the ballot in Virginia will encourage the former speaker to focus on Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma and his home state of Georgia.

“I tell people in Virginia that Super Tuesday could’ve been about the two swing states in the fall — Ohio and Virginia,” said Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at the University of Virginia. “Instead, because of the Stalinist ballot system in Virginia, it’s now just about Ohio. Ohio is going to draw the lion’s share of the coverage and it should.’’

Sabato said if Romney performs well in Ohio during the March primary, then the November election is “going to be very competitive. It doesn’t mean Obama will win. It doesn’t mean Romney will win. It means it’s going to be competitive,” he said.

Romney’s double-digit victory in Florida makes him the favorite in Ohio, according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Ohio has a lot more in common with Florida than it does with South Carolina,’’ Brown said. “Florida and Ohio are both major general election swing states, and their demographic and political mix is a good microcosm of the country, whereas South Carolina, where Mr. Gingrich triumphed, is much more conservative.”

No winner-take-all in Ohio

Unlike Florida, Ohio and the other Super Tuesday states adopted a proportional system of awarding delegates to the national convention rather than a winner-take-all model. That means Republican contenders have various paths to pick up delegates — and more incentive to compete for them.

Santorum and Paul barely campaigned in Florida, knowing they had little chance to win delegates. But in Ohio, 48 of the state’s 66 delegates will be awarded on the basis of 16 mini-contests, in which the winner of each congressional district is awarded three delegates. Of all the candidates, Santorum will find this a particular challenge because he won’t be on the ballot in three of the 16 congressional districts: the districts represented by Marcy Kaptur, D-Toledo; Bill Johnson, R-Marietta and Betty Sutton, D-Copley Twp.

The remaining delegates are given to the candidates who get the most votes statewide, but even that’s a mathematical conundrum: Get less than 20 percent of the votes and you won’t get any of those 15 at-large delegates. Get more than 50 percent and you get them all.

Each of the four candidates “know there’s an opportunity of shooting into Ohio and picking up some delegates,’’ said Chris Maloney, a spokesman for the Ohio Republican Party.

Romney is scheduled to speak at the Feb. 16 Cuyahoga County Lincoln Day Dinner in Cleveland, while Santorum will be in Akron two days later. About that time the ad wars will also heat up, although analysts doubt a Florida-like bombardment of the airwaves. In Florida, the Republicans contenders and the independent organizations supporting them spent more than $20 million on ads alone.

“Santorum, Gingrich and Paul really don’t have the big dollars for TV,’’ said Terry Casey, a Republican consultant in Columbus. “My feeling is there is going to be some things the last week but it’s not like they could go on the air and sustain it for two or three weeks.’’

Still, those watching the race don’t expect it to be any kinder and gentler than it was in Florida, where 92 percent of the ads were negative, according to the Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group.

“This is not just a normal competitive electoral process that we’ve seen over the years,” said David Leland, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. “This is very much a blood feud going on, and that’s what makes the ads so vitriolic.”

Two key endorsements

While most Ohio Republicans have yet to endorse a candidate, Sen. Rob Portman and former Sen. George V. Voinovich are backing Romney. Voinovich said he was giving his support to Romney because he has “the best chance’’ of beating Obama. But the former Ohio governor and senator also said he was troubled by the thrice-married Gingrich, an allusion to Gingrich’s affair while married to his second wife.

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