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Turnout in key areas determined mayor's race

This map shows the percentages of registered voters who voted in Dayton wards, the percentage of voters who supported each candidate, and how many votes McLin lost compared to 2005 in the 2009 election. Turnout was heaviest in Gary Leitzell's home territory in southeast Dayton, where he is president of the Southeast Priority Board.

ENLARGE PHOTO

While Daytom Mayor Rhine McLin lost votes in all 22 city wards compared to 2005, the decline in her stronghold wards cost her the most.

ENLARGE PHOTO

Lesley Johnson

Larry Tucker

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By Ken McCall and Tom Beyerlein
Staff Writers Updated 10:56 AM Thursday, November 5, 2009

DAYTON — Charlestella Hayes voted for Mayor Rhine McLin and displayed a yard sign for McLin outside her Hoover Avenue home, but wasn’t disappointed when McLin lost to political newcomer Gary Leitzell in the Tuesday, Nov. 3, election.

“There’s no jobs here,” said Hayes, who was laid off from her job in Centerville in May. “I’m unemployed, and I just think we need something different, something new. I just hope things change.”

A Dayton Daily News analysis of Tuesday’s election results shows how eroded support in Democratic strongholds cut against the incumbent.

McLin lost her bid for a third term largely because she lost votes in her traditionally Democratic West Dayton, the analysis found. While the two-term incumbent lost ground in all 22 of the city’s wards compared to the 2005 mayoral race, she lost the most in 10 West Dayton wards that overwhelmingly supported her in the past.

In 2001 and 2005, McLin got more than 18,000 votes to beat incumbent Mike Turner and challenger David Bohardt. But this time she garnered only 14,045 votes, a decline of more than 4,200. Three-fourths of that decline came in the 10 West Dayton wards.

The totals for challenger and Mayor-elect Gary Leitzell, meanwhile, look remarkably similar to the totals that Bohardt got in his unsuccessful 2005 bid. Leitzell got 14,923 votes, only 202 more than Bohardt.

Both sides said turnout would be the key to the election, and they were right.

While turnout was down 8.2 percent citywide, it declined more than twice as much in McLin’s base than in Leitzell’s. The challenger, who is president of the Southeast Priority Board, got more than 36 percent turnout in the eight wards that include his and the Northeast Priority Board, more than 10 percentage points higher than in McLin’s stronghold wards.

Random interviews with voters like Hayes confirmed the weakness of McLin’s support, even among some who voted for her . Several West Dayton voters said they were fed up with joblessness, crime and violence.

“A lot of people didn’t get out to vote,” said Lesley Johnson, 44, who voted for McLin. “Personally, I think a lot of people thought it was time for a change.”

Karen Pettus, 50, cast her vote for Leitzell, saying McLin has been “kind of riding on the back” of her famous father, the late state Rep. C.J. McLin Jr.

“I don’t think she’s lived up to the promises she’s made,” Pettus said. “The city of Dayton has suffered for a long time.”

Larry Tucker, 31, voted for McLin in 2005, but cast his vote for Leitzell on Tuesday.

“I think the new mayor will do a good job and probably get more jobs and get the roads fixed up,” he said.

In Thomas Graham’s view, McLin was doing a great job, but was blamed for economic factors beyond her control, including the loss of major employers. Things won’t improve, he said, until the economy recovers.

“With her losing, I guess people want a change,” said Graham, 70. “Change is not going to come right now, no matter who’s in there — white, black, pink or polka-dotted.”

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2393 or kmccall@DaytonDailyNews.com.

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