The Dayton area’s dependence on Wright-Patterson Air Force as an economic engine leaves its extremely vulnerable to big defense spending cuts that could start in a few weeks, Dayton Development Coalition executives said Thursday.

In short, it’s a dangerous time to be dependent on Washington, D.C. and federal government spending, the executives told local commercial real estate development professionals.

“Dayton’s economy is, for all practical purposes, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base,” said Michael Gessel, the coalition’s vice president of federal government programs at a meeting of the NAIOP (National Association for Industrial and Office Parks) Dayton Area Chapter at Beavercreek’s Pentagon Centre.

The coalition coordinates economic development in 14 counties in Southwest Ohio.

The base is responsible for $3.4 billion in annual payroll for employees inside and outside the base fence, at a time when defense spending is experiencing particular pressure, said Joe Zeis, coalition vice president for aerospace and defense.

Add the Dayton Veterans Affairs Medical Center, outside contracts and more to the mix, you can quickly reach an annual economic impact of nearly $5 billion a year, Gessel said.

The base has nearly 30,000 employees, making it Ohio’s largest single-site employer.

Automatic across-the-board federal spending cuts could begin March 1 and the government is preparing for $492 billion in defense spending cuts over the next decade.

The so-called “sequestration reductions” would be in addition to the $487 billion in spending cuts the Pentagon will be expected to absorb over the next decade.

“Even at projected (cuts) rates, we will see some changes at Wright-Patterson,” Gessel said.

And while Congress has rejected BRAC (Base Realignment and Closure Commission) rounds in 2013 and 2015, if a BRAC round is eventually accepted, there are perils.

“It is unfortunately a bad time to be dependent on Washington,” Gessel said.

At the same time, though, the coalition executives urged those at the meeting not to panic. Zeis said there are opportunities as well, saying Wright-Patterson remains an “enduring base” and one likely to accept new missions should there be a future BRAC round.

“Those are important words when budget stresses come to bear,” said Zeis, referring to Air Force Secretary Michael Donley’s 2010 reference to Wright-Patterson as an “enduring base.”

As well, the unmanned aerial vehicle/systems industry could grow to $94 billion in 2020, Zeis said. The Dayton market is uniquely positioned to tap into that, he said.

One of the coalition’s main missions is to protect Wright-Patterson. The organization played a core role in the 2005 BRAC round that brought 1,200 new jobs and more than $350 million in construction to the Greene County base, the most since World War II.

To prepare for the next base closure process, the coalition last year hired retired Gen. Lester Lyles, a former commander of Air Force Materiel Command (which is headquartered at the base) and the Beavercreek-based consulting firms of the Greentree Group, Dayton Aerospace Inc. and CBD Advisors, which has former U.S. Rep. David Hobson on its consultants list.