Three local school levies were narrowly trailing on Election night, but only one has a reasonable chance of seeing its outcome change based on provisional ballots and the final batch of absentee votes.

Those ballots are being counted this week by county boards of election, and results won’t be final until at least Tuesday. Milton-Union’s race remains very close, but election officials say it’s unlikely that Beavercreek or Centerville schools will gain enough “yes” votes to trigger a multimillion-dollar budget swing.

Those estimates are based on the number of ballots yet to be counted and the size of the deficit that would have to be overcome.

Through Election Day, Milton-Union Exempted Village Schools’ five-year, 10.9-mill renewal levy was trailing by 14 votes: 2,496 to 2,482. The Miami County Board of Elections said Tuesday that Milton-Union has about 200 provisional ballots to be counted.

The levy, which costs residents about $289 per $100,000 in property valuation, has raised $1.7 million annually for the 1,700-student district, which was rated “excellent” on the last two state report cards.

Beavercreek City Schools’ levy was trailing by 241 votes in the unofficial final Election Day results, out of more than 30,000 votes cast in Greene and Montgomery counties.

According to Llyn McCoy, deputy director of the Greene County Board of Elections, there were about 850 provisional and absentee ballots to be counted this week. It’s possible for the result to change and the levy to pass, but only if roughly two-thirds of those 850 ballots favor the levy.

“It’s possible, but not likely,” McCoy said.

The five-year, 6.7-mill emergency levy, which was the “excellent” district’s fourth straight new-money request, would raise $10.9 million each year for Greene County’s largest school district and cost the owner of a $100,000 home about $205 per year.

Chances for a reversal are also slight at Centerville City Schools. The Dayton area’s largest suburban district had its 5.9-mill operating levy trailing by 348 votes in Election Day results. A small number of absentee and paper ballots tallied Tuesday cut the margin to 306, according to BOE Deputy Director Steve Harsman.

That leaves an estimated 830 provisional ballots, meaning that, like Beavercreek, the levy would only pass if about two-thirds of those ballots contained “yes” votes on the levy.

Centerville Superintendent Tom Henderson said although there’s a mathematical possibility for his district’s levy to pass, he knows the chances are slim.

“Realistically, it’s a little bit of a long shot right now,” Henderson said Tuesday. “But, I just can’t not have a little glimmer of hope.”

The levy would raise $9.8 million per year for the “Excellent with Distinction” district, and cost the owner of a $100,000 home about $180 annually.

Henderson said no decisions have been made about whether to go back on the ballot in May if initial results hold true, but conversations about reductions and cuts for the 2013-14 school year have begun.

Two other Montgomery County votes are close enough that they may go to recounts — a local option vote on a gas station liquor license in east Dayton, and a village of Germantown charter issue on how the municipal manager is appointed.

Miami County plans to certify its results Monday, while Greene and Montgomery are expected Tuesday. Any vote that is within one-half of one percent on Tuesday will trigger an automatic recount to confirm the results.

Ohioans vote by provisional ballot for several reasons, including if they moved and didn’t update their address, if they fail to show identification, or if the polling place does not list them as registered. Boards of election review those ballots after Election Day to determine their validity.

In Greene County, 86.6 percent of provisional ballots were ruled valid. In Montgomery County, the number is expected to be near 90 percent. In both counties, the top reason for ballots being thrown out was that the voter was not registered anywhere in Ohio.

Staff writer Nancy Bowman contributed to this report.