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2010 Census shows Ohio’s population increasing slightly

Dayton population falls to 90-year low

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By Ken McCall  and Joanne Huist Smith, Staff Writers Updated 12:06 AM Thursday, March 10, 2011

In a state with stagnant population growth, winners create losers.

Ohio population increased by only 1.6 percent — about 183,000 people — during the last decade, according to Census 2010. As a result, fast-growing communities in suburban areas are causing huge losses in the urban areas.

But the losses weren’t supposed to be this big.

Dayton, Trotwood, Springfield and Middletown all lost more population than expected in the data released Wednesday.

Dayton and Trotwood both lost more than twice what previous census estimates from 2009 had shown.

The surprising losses happened in many Midwestern cities that have not been doing well, said William Frey, a senior fellow and demographer with the Brookings Institution.

“Generally the cities have been doing worse than the estimates had thought they would be,” Frey said. “There’s generally a bigger decline this decade than last decade for a lot of the cities.”

Cleveland, for example, was expected to lose 9 percent of its population, but ended up losing 17 percent of its residents this decade, close to 82,000 people. Cleveland fell below 400,000 residents to 396,815, a 100-year low. Cincinnati and Toledo had both been estimated to gain population, but Cincinnati fell 10 percent to 297,000, also a 100-year low. Toledo lost 9 percent to 287,208.

In the Midwest, Chicago and St. Louis were other examples, Frey said.

Columbus was the only large city in Ohio to grow. It gained 75,563 people, 10.6 percent to reach more than 787,000 in population.

The Census Bureau uses migration, housing and birth and death data to give population estimates every year between the decennial censuses.

But Frey called the decennial census “the gold standard” for population numbers. “All those estimates are done using the best techniques they can,” he said, “but it doesn’t substitute for actually enumerating the population.”

Dayton leaders had anticipated losses, although not perhaps of this magnitude.

Aaron Sorrell, Dayton’s housing and neighborhood development manager predicted two weeks ago that the numbers would come in around 152,000. But that turned out to be more than 10,000 residents too high.

“It’s a continuation of a 50-year trend,” said John Gower, Dayton’s director of planning and community development.

But many city leaders around the Dayton region, were happy with the results.

Beavercreek, for example, provided an unexpected bright spot. The estimates had the city up just over 9 percent, but it grew by twice that.

Benefiting from an expanding employee base at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Beavercreek grew by 19 percent or 7,209, to reach more than 45,000 population.

“That’s impressive,” Beavercreek City Manager Mike Cornell said. “Obviously, I think it’s a great reflection of interest in our city and the amenities we provide.”

Cornell said military transfers to the base as a result of the 2005 Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission have bolstered the city’s population.

“We anticipated our population would be over 40,000, but not to these levels,” Cornell said.

A number of communities north of Dayton also grew by double digits. Troy, Brookville, Union and Englewood all grew by more than 10 percent during the decade.Kettering didn’t gain population, but its leaders were happy with the new data.

The first-ring suburb had been projected to lose more than 7 percent of its population or almost 4,200, but the 2010 Census found it to have lost less than half that.

The city lost only 1,339 people, 2.3 percent of its population to land at 56,163 residents, the second highest in Montgomery County.

“We were concerned the Census estimates were not accurate. We thought we were doing better,” City Manager Mark Schwieterman said. “This is validation of efforts to increase our housing stock and to attract residents.”

Nevertheless, he said the city will be looking closely at the loss of residents.

“The devil is in the details,” he said.

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