You've Been Spotted: Ten Top Women
Bombers visit injured hockey player
Rachael Ray coming to area
NewsVine
Del.icio.us
Digg
Facebook
Furl
Reddit
StumbleuponJessica Wehrman: How many seats could Republicans lose in November?
Sunday, June 22, 2008
WASHINGTON — The November general election is less than five months away, and in Ohio, the focus has predominately been on the upcoming presidential race.
But even as most eyes remain focused on the White House, a handful of congressional races have political analysts paying close attention as they ponder just how many seats Republicans are likely to lose in the fall. Most election predictors expect the Democrats to pick up anywhere from eight to 20 seats. Will any of them be in Ohio?
Yes. No. Maybe.
Key among Ohio's endangered red seats are two of the state's three open seats: The seats to be vacated by retiring U.S. Reps. Deborah Pryce, R-Upper Arlington, and Ralph Regula, R-Navarre, are shaping up to be heated.
Pryce barely clung to her seat in 2006 thanks to Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, a Democrat who is running again in November. She faces state Sen. Steve Stivers, R-Columbus. That district includes all or parts of Union, Madison and Franklin Counties.
In northeast Ohio, state Sen. John Boccieri, D-New Middletown, faces state Sen. Kirk Schuring, R-Jackson Twp.
David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, however, calls the third open seat in Ohio — the 7th Congressional District, currently occupied by Rep. David Hobson, R-Springfield, a possible "sleeper."
He wonders if apathy toward state Sen. Steve Austria, R-Beavercreek, combined with national Democrats' fundraising advantage, could help political novice Sharen Neuhardt of Yellow Springs.
"I think there's every chance that Democrats are polling the district to see if they may have a shot," he said, adding that part of the district includes Franklin County, a county where Democrats are expected to do "very well" this year.
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia isn't banking on the 7th District being a hot race this year. He's also hesitant to predict other districts in the state going blue because the Republicans lost so few House seats in 2006, despite losing the U.S. Senate and governor's office.
Still, he's closely watching Reps. Steve Chabot, R-Cincinnati and Jean Schmidt, R-Loveland.
Those races, Wasserman said, may become closer as November nears, and are among those that may be affected by what happens on the presidential level.
Wasserman said Chabot's district is 28 percent African-American, and with Democrat Barack Obama on the ticket, it's likely a higher proportion of African-Americans will show up to vote on election day. Chabot faces Democrat state Rep. Steve Driehaus of Cincinnati.
Conversely, he predicts that the race for the White House will have an impact on the 2nd congressional district, where Democrat Victoria Wells Wulsin is again challenging Schmidt.
In 2006, Schmidt beat Wulsin by just a percentage point.
Still, Schmidt won't easily be defeated. Wasserman argues that the district's high Republican turnout will mean many voters will show up to "pull the Republican lever" regardless of who's on the ticket.
