News Summary

Once again, annual census statistics show Dayton losing population. Not just Dayton, but the municipalities closest to it: Riverside, Moraine, Huber Heights, Kettering — even Oakwood, which is not usually thought of as struggling.

And, again, cities in Warren and Butler counties are among the fastest gainers.

The phenomenon is widespread. Cleveland lost thousands of people just in one year. But Dayton is among the fastest losers in the country, percentage-wise, among cities. It has lost 6.5 percent of its population just in this decade (though that's actually less than Oakwood's 7.6 percent).

The reasons are not hard to see: The Dayton area can sprawl so easily. It is unbounded by any mountains or bodies of water or other cities. And yet, people who sprawl still have easy commutes.

In that last fact, however, lies an intriguing question:

Given the new thoughts people are having about commutes — in the age of $4 gasoline — is this the last year we will see this population trend at its current strength?

We know, after all, that the energy situation is causing people to change their car-buying patterns; ask anybody who works for General Motors in Moraine.

So is it unreasonable to suspect that people might also change their residence-choosing patterns?

Places that are shorter rides to work — and play, shopping and school — could start to look a lot more attractive, especially if they are also close to bus stops (and the service is not terribly infrequent).

Perhaps we shouldn't expect to see dramatic changes quickly. People in the housing business have to adjust — in what they offer and where they offer it — for the full effects of the energy situation to take place. And perhaps when we do see a change in trends, it will show up first, not in the city, but in the close-in suburbs. They offer more of what people are looking for in the distant suburbs, and they lack the school problems that people associate with central cities.

What's clear, though, is that opportunities are arising: opportunities for cities; opportunities for entrepreneurs; and opportunities for people looking for greener, more economical and maybe even less isolated lifestyles.

The American thirst for space is powerful. For 200 years, people have been moving, not only to greener pastures in the metaphorical sense, but to actual pastures.

This search for space has been astoundingly powerful in the bigger metropolitan areas. People subject themselves to daily commutes that, to Daytonians, look like torture, because of the distances and traffic jams.

Whatever adjustments are made now to new circumstances can be expected to show up more clearly in those bigger metropolitan areas than in Dayton.

But much might depend upon what people are offered in housing, neighborhood amenities, price and public transportation.

Downward population trends in the nation's older cities can end. This year Boston, Washington, Chicago and Atlanta showed gains, though they hadn't in recent years. Cincinnati gained (as did Columbus, which had been gaining before). Milwaukee held steady.

At hand is an opportunity to slow decline, then stop it, then, perhaps, reverse it. And if, in the process, the outer suburbs begin to see slower growth, that won't be all bad for them. Change that comes too fast — whether up or down — causes all manner of problems.