DaytonDailyNews.com

Here's what you need to know about this week's Forbes.com list that had Dayton among the country's "fastest-dying cities":

It's a cheap trick. One of the fastest ways to get "page views" on Web sites — which is one measurement Web sites point to when they sell ads — is to create lists that get people all PO'd or worried. How many people from Scranton, Charleston, Detroit, Dayton and Cleveland do you think clicked on the story telling them that their town was dying on the vine?

Between the 10 cities, you can bet it was a few bazillion, meaning Forbes.com hit pay dirt. And that's not counting the people who read the story to see if they ever lived anywhere on the list or had any relatives in need of being rescued.

If you really have time to burn, check out the dying cities in pictures. Every time you click your mouse, that's another page view that the big meter in the sky is counting. Cha-ching.

There's no science here, just some quick crunching of isolated numbers that — problematic and depressing as they are — are not the whole story.

You know that. You go to the Schuster Center, and the Fraze and Dragons games, and the Dayton Art Institute and the Air Force museum. The people you see there aren't mummies.

If you don't believe me, let me introduce you to Ned Hill, a professor at Cleveland State University. Yes, he lives in Cleveland (also on the list), but he's an urban affairs scholar, and he also is affiliated with the Brookings Institution, a public policy research organization in Washington, D.C. that is credited with doing good work on topics such as will cities ever revive. (In addition, he has tenure, so he'll get paid whether he says good or bad things about Cleveland, Dayton and Ohio.)

Hill's first reaction to the Forbes.com story was to laugh and note that letting journalists get near numbers is always dangerous. "It's a cheap and easy statistical story," he said.

But he also objected to the "mixing and matching" of statistics, relying on some that are only available for entire metropolitan regions, while using others that are city-specific.

For instance, Forbes.com cited population figures for Cleveland, while the gross domestic product figures it relied on are only available for metro regions. That matters because Ohio's metropolitan regions have not lost nearly the population that its cities have.

Continuing on that thought, he said, "Ohio is plagued by cities sprawling without growth. ... But the fact is, these are cities that are in transition. ... We have to get through the transition, and until then, the numbers are going to look horrible."

Referring to Dayton's historical dependence on automotive jobs that are simply going away, never to be replaced, he said, "The millstone of Delphi is coming off of Dayton's neck." The point is not that the auto industry hasn't been good to the region; rather, it's that, going forward, this brand of manufacturing isn't going to be the backbone. In the meantime, Dayton will have out-migration and unemployment numbers that inevitably will be dismal while the economy changes.

"These statistics are depressing stuff when you present them like they're physics," Hill said. But cities and regions don't follow immutable laws of science, he said. They respond to investment. As evidence, Hill said look at Boston's and Portland's problems in the 1970s — and check back now since they've reinvented their economies.

Unemployment and population statistics also don't measure the quality of life for people who haven't left struggling regions, Hill said. Referring to Dayton's museums, entertainment venues, parks and whatnot, he said, "You know about the life and vitality that's not in those figures."

Hill didn't minimize the threat and impact of sad-sack stories. "Overstated pessimism increases the perception of risk," he said, making it harder to attract both businesses and people.

Do Cleveland and Dayton (and Youngstown and Canton, which also are right there with us) have problems? Does Ohio have problems? You betcha. "But the real trick is, you can't measure the future. In the case of Ohio's cities, they're going to have a new future, but they are going to look different," Hill said.

So, am I just being a homer or was I right to think Forbes.com did a hit-and-run job?

"You had the right reaction," Hill said.

Ellen Belcher is editor of the Dayton Daily News editorial pages. Her telephone number is 225-2286; her e-mail address is ebelcher@DaytonDailyNews.com.