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EDITORIAL

One storm would've been plenty this week, but now there's a financial crisis

By Dayton Daily News

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Two storms at the same time: One local and physical; one national and financial. They intersect.

As if southwest Ohio wasn't having enough economic trouble, Monday and Tuesday brought news that the national banking crisis has sharply deepened. That can be expected to have a trickle-down effect here.

Meanwhile, there's this little matter of the Miami Valley having to chop, saw and rake itself out from a freak windstorm that still has hundreds of thousands of people without power. That means many businesses are not operating, and a lot of people are not working, earning and shopping in the way that normally drives commerce.

Wall Street's timing is not great.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers, the sale of Merrill Lynch and the rescue of the huge American International Group come on top of problems for other major financial institutions.

Even before this, commercial lending was becoming tougher to get locally, said Barry James of the Beavercreek-based James Investment Research. "Banks have really quashed money that businesses, in some cases, need for regular business operations — their regular lines of credits," he said. "Getting loans will be much more difficult, and that will have a ripple effect on small business and on jobs."

A tight lending environment also might slow recovery in the housing market, where down payments will have to be bigger and standards for obtaining a loan will be stricter.

It's not just the little guys who get hurt, either. Some people are speculating that the Treasury Department's reluctance to bail out Lehman and Merrill Lynch and the decision to come up with money for AIG could bode poorly for the auto industry, which has reportedly thought of seeking similar financial rescue. Other analysts are skeptical, saying that the auto companies could still get federal help, though it might not be soon.

What's clear is that more pain for Detroit will ripple in Ohio, too.

But any time there are extremes in the market, there are also opportunities.

Mr. James said Tuesday, Sept. 16, that his company was buying stocks following the big drop in prices on Monday. For those with the means, this is a good buying opportunity. Even those with money or investment advisers at these companies in the news aren't in danger of losing big money as the companies endure takeover and bankruptcy, thanks to deposit insurance. There's no reason to switch banks or radically change investment strategy.

(However, analysts note that some people with more than $100,000 saved in one place need to consider diversifying, because that's the cutoff for federal insurance.)

For home buyers who qualify for loans, interest rates may eventually fall if the Federal Reserve drops rates.

So once your lawn is cleared and repairs are made, take a look at your personal finances for adjustments and opportunities. Hurricane Ike has blown over, but tropical storms Lehman, Merrill and AIG will be rumbling through next.

Auto companies and manufacturers have been at the heart of U.S. economic problems in recent years. Therefore the Miami Valley has been hit particularly hard. Problems in the financial industry are not as directly focused on southwest Ohio, but they reach Ohio directly through big banks and insurance companies. The region's pre-existing condition makes it especially vulnerable.

And yet, financial analysts seem to agree that when the markets go down, they ultimately go up. Maybe that's another way the Wall Street situation and the Ohio situations intersect.

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