DaytonDailyNews.com

If this list sounds familiar, it should. You've heard it before.

Here are the five best school districts in the Miami Valley, as judged by the Ohio Department of Education's district report cards released last month:

1. Mason.

2. Oakwood.

3. Russia.

4. Botkins.

5. Fort Loramie.

Mason and Oakwood get headlines every year for coming out on top. And this list should also ring a bell. State report cards say these are the five worst area districts (lowest scoring at the bottom):

1. National Trail.

2. Northridge.

3. Trotwood-Madison.

4. Jefferson Twp.

5. Dayton.

Every August, report cards come out, and these districts appear consistently at the top and bottom of the list. Four of those top districts scored in the top five last year also, and all five have been in the top 10 the last three years running.

The story is the same at the bottom of the list. Except for Preble County's National Trail schools, the other four have been among the five worst three straight years.

The implication from the state report card is that the first five districts are doing a great job and the bottom five are doing dreadfully. In fact, that's exactly how they are treated by Ohio's accountability system.

But wait just a minute. Take a look at this list. Ladies and gentleman, the top five school districts in the Miami Valley are:

1. Sidney

2. Botkins

3. Versallies

4. Ansonia

5. Fort Loramie

And the bottom five are:

1. Jefferson Twp.

2. Huber Heights

3. Tri-County North

4. Jackson Center

5. Carlisle

Fort Loramie must be doing something really right, since it is on both top scoring lists. And Jefferson Twp., near the bottom of both lists, really has some explaining to do.

To get this second pair of lists, I used a different measure of test success than the state does. You might say my list shows you the Miami Valley's five most "overachieving" school districts and the five worst "underachievers."

Here's where my list comes from:

It is a well-documented fact that there is a very strong correlation between wealth and standardized test scores in a school district. Two years ago, I talked to Chris Lubienski, a well-regarded University of Illinois researcher who studies the effect of student characteristics on test performance.

He said a host of studies over many years have shown outside factors such as wealth and the education level of parents in the community are the strongest predictors of standardized test results, accounting for 60 to 70 percent a school's scores.

The schools themselves typically can only affect 30 to 40 percent of student scores on a standardized test.

And of the home factors, it's wealth that often has the strongest connection to test results.

In 2006, I studied the affect of wealth on Ohio's test scores and found the same result. The correlation between median income in Ohio school districts and test scores explained about 66 percent of the score.

Youngstown State Professor Randy Hoover, in a just released study of 2007 Ohio report cards, had similar findings — median income explained about 62 percent of a district's score. He studied 60 possible variables and found strong test-score correlation only with nonschool factors.

So it's not surprising that wealthy districts like Oakwood score high and poor districts like Dayton score low on the report cards. You'd expect that. Oakwood is the 11th wealthiest district in Ohio, and it's test scores rank ninth best — almost right on the money. Dayton is the 590th wealthiest district and ranks last — 610th — for test scores. That's also roughly the same.

But let's look at Sidney for a moment. Sidney ranks 461st in Ohio for wealth, but for test scores, it ranks 230th. That means it is scoring 231 places above where its income would predict. I call that an overachiever.

At the other end of the spectrum is Carlisle. It ranks 190th for income in Ohio, but it's test scores rank 416th — 226 spots lower than income would predict. That's not good.

Incredibly, Sidney got no credit from the state for its overachievement. Ohio has added a "growth measure" that gives extra report-card points to districts that meet test-score improvement targets. Sidney didn't qualify. So to those who look up Miami Valley test scores, Sidney ranks an unremarkable 31st out of 60 districts when ranked by test scores.

That's really not fair to the hard-working teachers and students who defied the odds. Ohio should consider at least adding this information to the report cards so that parents can get a fuller picture of school-district performance.

Scott Elliott is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News. Contact him at 225-2485 or by e-mail at selliott@DaytonDailyNews.com.

More rankings online

To see a complete list of area school districts that are "overachieving" or "underachieving," visit DaytonDailyNews.com/opinionblog.