DaytonDailyNews.com

It's now or never,

Tomorrow will be too late. — Elvis

Elvis might be an appropriate background singer for some political speechmakers around here these days.

The Democrats are in something like a now-or-never situation in their wooing of voters in three congressional districts. The seats are held by Republicans. If Democrats are ever going to take any of them, this would seem to be the year.

That's true for different reasons in different cases. But one factor affects all three: 2008 is widely expected to be a good year for Democrats nationally. National trends matter a lot.

And, if past trends hold, it is likely to be the last Democratic year for a while. After all, 2006 was a huge Democratic year. Two in a row is decidedly unusual. Three is unheard of. Three is sea change, a historical turning point, the Democrats' dream.

Don't count on it. If Barack Obama is elected president, everything would point to things moving in the other direction in 2010. New presidents generally face a tough time in their first midterm election, even in the absence of huge recent gains for their party. So it's all about 2008.

7th District

So, to bring it down to the local level, here we have, for example, the race in Ohio's 7th District. That's Greene and Clark counties and rural counties to the east, and part of Franklin County. The special factor there working for the Democrats — beyond the national situation — is the absence of an incumbent.

Republican candidate Steve Austria lights few fires. He is thoroughly generic. But he is inoffensive enough that, once in, he'd probably be hard to beat. Thus, now or never.

People in politics have a habit of thinking of the district as rigidly Republican. In fact, though, it was changed in a slightly Democratic direction by the redistricting done after the 2000 Census. That was little noticed at the time, because Republican Rep. Dave Hobson had such a lock on the job.

In truth, the fact that he had such a lock was one reason the district lines were changed. The Republicans in charge of drawing the new map were more worried about a couple of other Republicans in the Columbus area. They moved some D's into Hobson's district. (There were also other factors at work in their decision.)

The district is still Republican in an average year. It went to George W. Bush by 57 percent in 2004, which was that kind of year. But 2006 was not that kind of year. The district went for Democrat Sherrod Brown for the U.S. Senate over incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine (though DeWine had represented the district in Congress). Brown won by two points while he was carrying the state by 12 points.

So it's possible to imagine the Democrats taking the congressional seat.

But they'd have a better shot if their candidate, Sharen Neuhardt, had been around the political track at least once before. (She was too smart to run against Hobson.) Overcoming Austria's visibility as a state senator and his aura of inevitability will be hard for a brand new face, at least absent a major national Democratic tidal wave — more major than has shown up in any polls yet.

2nd District

Meanwhile, in the 2nd District (down near Cincinnati mainly, but including Lebanon), the now-or-never sense for the Democrats results from this widespread suspicion: If incumbent Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt can come through this year, she is over a sort of political hump. She might then be expected to stay in office until she retires and the job passes naturally to another Republican.

The district is hugely Republican and shouldn't offer the Democrats any shot whatsoever. But Schmidt has been an exceptionally weak candidate. She became notorious for an absurd name-calling incident in Congress, then was found to be inflating her educational attainments and passing off generic Republican material as something she had written.

As a result, she almost lost last time to Democrat Victoria Wulsin, a doctor.

But some of the charges against Schmidt are getting a little old. If she holds off Wulsin again — and an independent challenger — she becomes a less inviting target in the future, especially if it's not very close this year.

3rd District

Then there's the 3rd District. Republican incumbent, Mike Turner is certainly stronger than Schmidt. But his district is much more likely than the others to go Democratic. (The core of it, Mongtomery County, leans Democratic even in an average year.) And he has had certain political embarrassments that are new. These resulted in one low-profile group dubiously listing him among "corrupt" members of Congress.

He is not seen by many political professionals as in political trouble, but, again, the year offers the Democrats their best shot.

Tomorrow will be too late.

(This) love won't wait.

Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the

. He may be reached at 225-2288 or by e-mail at mgottlieb@DaytonDailyNews.com.