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Hall of Fame baseball writer Hal McCoy is in his 36th year of covering the Cincinnati Reds, the longest tenure for any active writer covering one team. Counting spring training and postseason games, McCoy has covered more than 7,000 major-league baseball games, written close to 18,000 baseball stories and eaten enough hot dogs to give Babe Ruth indigestion.Home > Blogs > The Real McCoy | Cincinnati Reds baseball news > Archives > 2008 > October > 16 > Entry
Can the Reds be the 2009 Phillies?
There are defining moments in every baseball game, usually a defining moment.
As for the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday night in the NLCS, it was the first batter of the game.
LA pitcher Chad Billingsley slipped two quick strikes past Jimmy Rollins. Then Rollins worked the count to 3-and-2 and on the eighth pitch of his at-bat he popped one into the right field seats.
It was Rollins who hit a leadoff home run in the final game of the NLDS when the Phillies eliminated the Milwaukee Brewers - and as Yogi Berra would say, “It was deja vu all over again.”
I turned to my dog, Barkley (Nadine was getting us ready for a trip to Cancun) and I said, “That’s it. Game over. Series over.”
And I was right.
Billingsley quickly crumbled and the Dodgers were bird seed in the left hand of Phillies starter Cole Hamels, a 24-year-old powder keg who was 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his two starts in the NLCS.
So the Phillies are in the World Series for the first time since 1993.
After the game, in the Phillies celebratory clubhouse, general manager Pat Gillick said something that showed complete class.
After the 2005 season, Ed Wade was fired as GM of the Phillies and three years later, Gillick stood in the clubhouse and on national television said, “A lot of the credit for this team must go to Ed Wade, who put most of it together.”
Is that class, or is that class?
It was Wade who was in charge when the Phillies signed players like Rollins and Hamels and Ryan Howard (three hits Wednesday) and Chase Utley and Shane Victorino.
For Gillick to aim credit at a GM fired three years ago showed not only a basket full of class, but supreme confidence in his own status.
OK, can the Cincinnati Reds be the 2009 version of the Phillies? Why not?
Can Edison Volquez be Cole Hamels? Why not?
Can Brandon Phillips be Chase Utley? Why not?
Can Joey Votto be Ryan Howard. Why not?
Can Jay Bruce be Shane Victorino. Why not?
Can Francisco Cordero be Brad Lidge? Why not?
Can Alex Gonzalez be Jimmy Rollins? Why not?
The Reds had their own Pat Burrell in Adam Dunn, but traded him. And the Phillies probably will lose Burrell, too. So both the Reds and Phillies will need a power-hitting righthanded bat in the lineup.
What the Reds don’t have is a catcher like Carlos Ruiz. Can Ryan Hanigan be that guy? Maybe. But most likely the Reds need a strong catcher.
Tell me. Am I being silly here. I mean I look at the Phillies and I look at the Reds and say, “Is there really that much difference?”
The Reds were 4-5 in their nine games last season against Philadelphia.
Maybe the Reds, absent from the NLCS since 1995, can get there in 2009.
Or am I dreaming?
Permalink | Comments (107) | Post your comment |
Comments
By Len
November 18, 2008 4:48 PM | Link to this
Strength up the middle,Hal. Catcher,Pitching, SS,2B and CF. Reds still need C,SS and CF to be a winner.By dave
November 1, 2008 5:03 PM | Link to this
EE = 3B Edwin Encarnacion, who is possibly available for trade, had the team’s longest hitting streak in 2008 at 14 games, but he hit only .251 and led the team with 23 errors. He’s a dud…lose him.By m
October 31, 2008 10:19 AM | Link to this
Yes it was a great World Series….and Pete’s other team won it! I am glad to see the NL, and especially the Phillies (if not the Reds) as the Champs.By Wizard
October 30, 2008 12:05 AM | Link to this
As usual, Mike-Cinci is right on it. It was a great season—and great World Series! Can’t wait for Spring!By Y-City Jim
October 29, 2008 7:50 PM | Link to this
bobs, go to those links again and click on their minor league numbers, which are a good barometer for their career MLB potential. Edwin far outshines Brandon.By Mike-Cinci
October 29, 2008 6:02 PM | Link to this
bobs, EE is young, only 25. Bad teams give up on young players too soon. There is a shortage of good third basemen. The Cubs looked for 30 years before the Pirates traded young Ramirez to them. The Cubs are still thanking the Pirates who still stink. The Reds should keep EE for another year to see if he develops. He can always be dumped but finding a hard hitting guy for 3B is not easy. EE is a middle of the pack 3rd basemen guy now. He has potential to become a top 5 guy. The Reds have got to play this out. There is a better chance he will become a better player than worse. The Reds need more right hand hitting and there is no one on the Reds roster or in the minors who can provide it more than EE. I’m not sure if EE can become really good but I’d let him try in a Reds uniform.By bobs
October 29, 2008 10:56 AM | Link to this
Y-City. As instructed, looked at the link and it showed both had worse years. EE’s had less hits, less RBI’s, less BA, more walks and strikeouts (which is reasonable with more plates appearences). The more interesting stats to look at are to compare 2006 and 2008. Phillips has gotten better, where it appears EE might have peaked. As has been evident with this team, Home Runs only get you so far. He is more on pace to become another Adam Dunn. Again, the power is going up and batting average is going down. Not good. On that note, I will retire on this subject as I am sure that this is a tired subject for the board. Hal, we need a new blog!By Y-City Jim
October 28, 2008 3:52 PM | Link to this
Look at these two links that seem to indicate just the contrary especially considering that EE played in more games and had more ABs this year than at any point of his career: http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/phillbr01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/encared01.shtmlBy bobs
October 28, 2008 2:47 PM | Link to this
Y-City, I will let you answer because you have the stats, but whose numbers are on the rise and whose numbers are on the decline? I will gladly take Phillips’ numbers because he seems to be getting better, except for HR’s, EE’s numbers appear to be declining.By ross
October 28, 2008 9:15 AM | Link to this
the only albert I would take Dickerson over is Fat Albert…By AP-FLORIDA
October 28, 2008 2:02 AM | Link to this
Right now I’d take Votto over Howard and I’d take Dickerson too. He’s on his way up and albert is getting old fast!!!!!By Mike
October 27, 2008 3:50 PM | Link to this
Timb - the only reason I can think for which Barry still posts his views is that Barry is Votto’s agent and he wants to be compared to Howard for a bigger contract. But remember I spoke for the board when I wrote that we all agreed with Barry that Votto was a better hitter than Howard with Howard having better one year and three year averages than Votto in OPS, OBS, Slugging %, Runs scored, created and driven in, rated a better hitter in three major publications and has win an MVP. Remember Barry is a genius (just ask his friends) and we should try not to understand how genius works - we just need to appreciate while it exists.By timb
October 27, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this
Because the difference he cited was not .007. it was a comparison of Howard’s last three seasons with Votto’s one. Your delusional re: Howard is living on the fact he had one “down” season (without noting that after significantly under-performing this season, he STILL beat Votto’s OPS numbers). But the outlier is not his other four seasons int he majors; it’s this season. Lastly, your earlier comment re: Dunn and Howard? If the payroll figures were equal, I would take Adam Dunn over Joey Votto any time. Adam is a better hitter than 2008 Votto and has a track record of production (whereas Joey has one decent season). Your view of reality is skewed, barry, and that would be a crime if you were the GM of my team. Since you are not the GM, then I say “Is Chris Dickerson better than Albert Pujols?”By Barry
October 27, 2008 11:11 AM | Link to this
how is a difference of .007 in OPS blowing him away. people look way too much at HR’sBy Y-City Jim
October 26, 2008 7:14 PM | Link to this
Barring injury, Joey Votto will be even better than this year’s numbers.By Mike-Cinci
October 25, 2008 10:50 AM | Link to this
Votto may become a very good player but you can’t judge a player off his first season. It may be the best season he will ever have or the worst or it may be somewhere in between. Players should be judged on multi-year performance. Time will tell on Votto. He could become very good. Reds fans hope he does. Ryan Howard has proven to be very good in his firsr 4-5 years. If he keeps it up for another 5-7 years he will be a special player.By D-Man
October 25, 2008 9:52 AM | Link to this
Barry/Mike, Votto is not a better hitter than Howard. Sorry Barry, you’ll have to hang out with your friends to get any support. Now maybe Barry has a limited view of hitting as only being batting average (which is a very limiting gauge). 2008 was a down year for Howard and he still outproduced Votto, 2007 his stats blew Votto’s 2008 stats away. Howards three year average blows Votto’s 2008 stats away. There isn’t any evidence to support you Barry so you may need to hang around your “hood” to get some love.By Mike
October 25, 2008 8:42 AM | Link to this
Somehow you have separated the key pieces of hitting power, rbi’s, scoring runs, getting on base from the overall component of hitting. So to appease your non-delusional thinking, we’ll say Votto is a better hitter than Howard but Howard has more power, scores and drives in more runs, has a higher OPS, Onbase % and Slugging %, creates more runs per AB and has done it for 4 years in row - but we’ll all agree with you that Votto is a better hitter. Case Closed … let’s call CSI.By Barry
October 25, 2008 7:13 AM | Link to this
oh and what was the point of listing what ESPN had Howard as a better player, I never once said Votto was a better player, I said he was a better hitter, there is a huge difference between saying someone is a better hitter and saying they are a better player. I think Howards Power makes him a better player than Votto. But Votto is a better Hitter.By Barry
October 25, 2008 7:08 AM | Link to this
lol, people not agreeing with me is suposed to shut me up. People here don’t agree with me, but others do, non Reds fans before you even say something.By AP-FLORIDA
October 24, 2008 8:10 PM | Link to this
GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Philles Suck!!!By Y-City Jim
October 24, 2008 5:36 PM | Link to this
GABP is not a matchbox. It’s dimensions are extremely similar to Riverfront’s. The balls fly out once the weather heats up due to simple convection physics. As for EE, I posted stats yesterday that show that Edwin is clearly a better offensive player than Brandon Phillips, yet we have fans who think BP is the great thing since sliced bread.By Mike
October 24, 2008 2:56 PM | Link to this
Barry - Read back the blog, you have no one agreeing with you and timb and Mike-Cincy agreeing with me. Sportsline has Howard as the 11th best player and Votto 150th … ESPN has Howard 32nd and Votto 60th … FOXsports has Howard in the Top 5 and Votto isn’t in the Top 50 … maybe tim, mike-cincy and me have no clue along with Sportsline, ESPN and Foxsports … OJ had a better alibi than you have a case for Votto over Howard.By Barry
October 24, 2008 11:51 AM | Link to this
Yes you can look at career, but Votto only has 1 full season, this season. The main reason(other than it would prove your point) that I will only look at this year is because its not as if this year was just a fluke off year for Howard, last year wasn’t any better. When you look at Howards 5 year career you looking at the player that he was in the past, not the player that he is right now. Right now as of the 2008 season he isn’t much better than Adam Dunn.By Mike-Cinci
October 24, 2008 10:14 AM | Link to this
bobs, many share your concern about Encarnacion. To be honest I thought 2008 would be a big year for him and it was not. The question is will EE become another player who finally delivers on his potential as many do about 25-27 years of age or will he just be average or worse? The Reds know all they need to know about him on the field and in the clubhouse. That evaluation will determine whether he is signed short, long, or moved. It will interesting to know if other teams are asking about EE’s availability. I’d feel better about him if other teams saw potential in him and wanted him. If he is wanted by others it may be a good sign to keep him but if the Reds don’t want to keep him they might just get something of real value in return. In the Reds position it is tough to give up young players with potential. I’m counting on Walt Jocketty to make smart personnel decisions. The most important thing the Reds must do is continue to improve their pitching, speed, defense, contact hitting and develop the farm system.By AP-FLORIDA
October 24, 2008 9:40 AM | Link to this
Good try guys, but when all is said and done,”we still have rusty baker” And that says it all!!!!By Jammin
October 24, 2008 6:26 AM | Link to this
Take Griffey and Dunns’ average numbers the last few years and we are even at best-not enough improvement hitting unless a deal gets made. Starting pitching is looking up, but will it matter in the matchbox they play half their games in??By Y-City Jim
October 23, 2008 9:35 PM | Link to this
Look at these two sets of careerstats: BA .266 OBP .346 SLG .455 OPS+ 103 BA .262 OBP .308 SLG .425 OPS+ 87 Which set belongs to EE? Who does the other set belong to?By bobs
October 23, 2008 5:02 PM | Link to this
Mike-Cinci, thats what I was referring to, but I thought we had one more year on the cheap with EE. My point is that in arbitration, he becomes expensive, based upon home run numbers, and certainly not worth what he would get. Trade him now while he may have some value.By Mike
October 23, 2008 4:39 PM | Link to this
Barry - because I took career numbers (5 years for Howard and a little over 1 year for Votto) as smaller sample sizes are misleading. For example, I could take two months of data during 2008 and prove Howard is Babe Ruth but it would not be accurate although the data may point that way … 5 years of data shows Howard OPS to be .970 and Votto is .878 for 1+ year and players will generally produce to their averages over time. Next year Votto could go .990 as he is clearly going to get better and Howard could go .780 although I bet he produces to his career average seeing as 5 years of data is probably enough to determine his true average. That gap could close between the two over time but for now Howard is a better hitter than Votto.By Barry
October 23, 2008 6:29 AM | Link to this
Mike- with what logic do you figure that Votto isn’t anywhere close to Howard in OPS. for the 2008 season Votto’s OPS[2008] = .874 Howard’s OPS[2008] = .881 that is a difference of .007 if you want to talk Runs created i think we need to start talking about team mates which obviously Howard is better in that area.By BrarHopper
October 23, 2008 2:49 AM | Link to this
The original question in this article’s headline: Can the Reds be the 2009 Phillies? My greatest fear is that the Reds will be the Reds in 2009, and that 2009 will be like a replay of 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008…ala Bill Murray’s movie Groundhog Day.By Wizard
October 23, 2008 12:45 AM | Link to this
“Speed, defense,pitching and good contact hitting” says Mike-Cinci—I agree—except, I’d add one more necessity: More pitching!!!By Y-City Jim
October 22, 2008 10:22 PM | Link to this
Being Hal Morris wouldn’t be a bad thing. From 1990-1996, he was a very productive offensive force for the Reds.By Mike-Cinci
October 22, 2008 6:20 PM | Link to this
Howard is a better hitter than Votto today. We shall see if Votto becomes Don Mattingly or Hal Morris with more power. We will see if Howard declines as is likely given his weight and record setting K’s. EE is arbitation eligible this year. He won’t be cheap anymore. He will get a $3-4 million one year deal or a 4 year deal for $20-$25 million. The question is not will the Reds be the next Phillies. Will they be the next Rays? I say no chance until the Reds find players like Langoria, Upton,Navarro, Crawford, and a surplus of wonderful starting pitchers. Speed, defense, pitching and good contact hitting wins.By Mike
October 22, 2008 6:14 PM | Link to this
I am with Tim on this one Bobs as I can’t figure out on logical thing you wrote about EE. He certainly is good enough to be here as he hit 20+ HR … he salary won’t go way up if he has a good year as he is not going to get arbitration or free agency for a few more years … and not sure what a World Series player (I assume you mean Longoria) has to do with EE as players don’t all follow the same path to their potential. EE can hit somewhat, he’s young and cheap and RH … he’ll be around next year.By Mike
October 22, 2008 4:59 PM | Link to this
Barry - if you use your strikeouts and batting average as the only criteria, then Ryan Garko, Adam LaRoche and Casey Blake are better hitters than Howard. What matters is OPS% and Runs Created and Votto does not come close to Howard - you can go find some reference from two other players and try to make your point or you could call every GM in MLB and ask them - “Is Joey Votto a better hitter than Ryan Howard?” —- we’d all love to hear the GM breakdown when you’re finished.By timb
October 22, 2008 4:13 PM | Link to this
Fortunately for me and the Reds, bobs, you are not Walt Jocketty. Mr. Jocketty stated pretty clearly earlier this season that EE was one of his “untouchables.” That was at the Trade Deadline and things obviously change, but I doubt his opinion has changed that much.By bobs
October 22, 2008 3:44 PM | Link to this
timb, you are confusing me? Is it the fans who run people out of town or Marty and Jeff? Or…perhaps lets go another direction, possibly…maybe its contracts…or the lack of one for next year that got Dunn and Griffey traded. The fans did not run either out of town, the decision whether to pay them more money or get prospects was the deciding factor. If the fans and/or Marty could do the job, why on earth was Corey Patterson with the organization all year? Or Paul Bako? You think they got rid of Todd Coffey because of the fans or because he stinks? EE will not be here next here because he is not good enough to keep. No reason to keep him around next year. If he has a decent year, his salary will go way up (and nobody giving him a big contract). If he doesnt have a good year, you wasted a year getting his replacement here. There are certain players out there, one starting in the World Series that prove you do not need four years in the majors to prove your worth. He had a chance to show what he could do, and what he could do is not enough. Perhaps he can join Brandon Larson in the Independent League.By Rick Burkart
October 22, 2008 1:39 PM | Link to this
The 2009 Reds couldn’t beat the 1909 Phillies!By Barry
October 22, 2008 12:14 PM | Link to this
I think aaron mundy had the best answer. He gets my endorcement. However, I know nothing since I am a delusional Reds fan.By timb
October 22, 2008 10:39 AM | Link to this
In another essay, Hal lists his three favorite moments of 2008. My favorite moment, as a Reds fan from another state, was watching in late spring when the Reds were done two in the ninth and the first two batter reached. The broadcast yokels were Thom and Brantley and, as EE approached, they determined he should bunt. Bunting, in general is stupid (unless it’s the pitcher), bunting when down by two in the ninth in incredibly stupid (the other team needs only three outs and you are GIVING them one?), and bunting with a power hitter and foregoing the chance of the game tying double or winning HR is just foolish. Dusty, proving once again he cannot manage late innings, ordered the bunt and two strikes later, he took it off. That didn’t stop the blithering idiot who is Brantley from demanding EE bunt with two strikes and saying (as the ball sailed over the left field fence) that EE just isn’t “clutch” (which, as any real baseball fan knows, is not real). Brantley is a tool, the players know it, I know it, and ESPN knew it. It would be nice if Reds fans learned to ignore his love of whit….certain ball players and had management run Jeff out of town.By timb
October 22, 2008 10:28 AM | Link to this
bobs, all I know is that Adam Dunn is a singular talent, an HR and OBP machine, and Reds fans hated him. Most of the national publications, dedicated to crunching numbers and analyzing production, were shocked when the Reds almost balked at picking up his below market option for this season. Reds management counts on fans to come to the game and, when the fans are led by charlatans like Marty and Jeff Brantley and their strange hatreds, certain players become expendable. “Strange hatreds”? Yeah, in addition to hating Griffey since 2000, Marty and Jeff are impossibly hard on EE and his defensive lapses, but I have yet to hear them whine about the fact that Joey Votto cannot flip the ball to a pitcher covering first base. He muffed countless plays this season on that, yet Joey never got anything but love from them. So, we can learn to think for ourselves or we can listen to a North Carolina redneck whose in love with the sound of his own opinion.By Barry
October 22, 2008 6:47 AM | Link to this
Hitting 40+ HR’s doesn’t = Being a Great Hitter Let alone add in near 200 Strikeouts a year. There is a lot more to Hitting than HR’s. This year also Votto hit more Doubles than Howard who turned in an Adam Dunn like Season. Ryan Howard is an extremely overrated power hitter. Who you consider Reggie Jackson [OPS .846] as good of a hitter as Tony Gwynn [OPS .847]By GrandpaRedlegs
October 21, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this
The Reds will not win in 2009 or 2010 IF Dusty (I can find my butt with both hands) Baker is still the manager of this team. Mr. C does not have the “baseballs” to admit he was wrong and make the changes needed to make the Reds a winner again.By Mike
October 21, 2008 5:07 PM | Link to this
Anyone who believes Votto is a better (not close to or as good or nearly as good but BETTER) hitter than Howard is delusional (I don’t mean that in an aggregate sense just when viewing the Reds). Howard’s career OPS is .970 which is Slugging % plus OB% … Votto’s is .878 - Howard’s is better by a fair amount. Howard produces a run (runs+rbi’s-hr)/(pa) 28% of the time, Votto 23% of the time - which makes Howard’s number on average 11% - 20% better than Votto’s numbers. Votto is good hitter and a team leader in my opinion but he is not as good, and clearly not a BETTER hitter than Ryan Howard.By bobs
October 21, 2008 2:49 PM | Link to this
timb, has does a fan “run a player out of town?” Please let me know because besides EE, I can think of about 17 more. Mike, did make one valid point about the difference between EE and Dunn is money and lots at that. Still need an upgrade at that position. If you cant find the right handed bat in the outfield, then finding it at third is just as fine.By Barry
October 21, 2008 12:06 PM | Link to this
I am aware that it wasn’t you that called me such, however I was called a “delusional Reds fan” for commenting on Hal’s statement about Votto being Howard because I stated that Votto is a better hitter than Howard, with Howard having more power, I have proven that with statistics based on the 2008 season since its the only full season Votto played and while Howard was MVP 2 years ago he proved this year that his decrease in numbers seems less like a fluke. so you can see I never said anything about Joey having more power Howard had an OPS of .881 where Votto had an OPS of .874, that is a difference of .007 from a guy who had 40+ HR compared to a guy with only 20+ HR. Statistically speaking Votto is a better hitter(based on the 2008 season) than Howard. So I ask you, do you think what I said make me a “delusional Reds fan” I can’t predict the future for Votto, nor can I assume that Howard is going to continue to hit .251.. but I can make a reasonable statement based on one season oh and one more thing look again Votto had a higher OBP than Howard last year. Howard [162 Games] .251 BA, .339 OBP, .543 SLG, .881 OPS, 199 K, 81 BB Votto [151 Games] .297 BA, .368 OBP, .506 SLG, .874 OPS, 102 K, 59 BBBy timb
October 21, 2008 10:39 AM | Link to this
Barry, I never said you were delusional; I said you were mistaken (and called you “bobs” ….there goes MY perfect streak!). Votto had a good year, while Howard had (for him) a down year. You can’t compare Joey’s power to Howard’s and he has never walked as often as Howard (or K’d as much either). This season, Howard’s worst in the majors, he still had a higher OBP than Joey and hit more bombs. Votto looks like a fine addition to the Reds’ line-up, but he’s no Ryan Howard, not that the Reds need Ryan Howard. They need a Pat Burrell (but not THE Pat Burrell) to bat between Votto and Bruce. Again, let me say this: you are dead on right that the guy (after one season) looks like the real deal, but Howard is one of the three best first baseman in the NL. There’s no crime in being 4th best!By Barry
October 21, 2008 6:39 AM | Link to this
this season.. 2008 because Votto is a Rookie we only have one year to look at Howard [162 Games] .251 BA, .339 OBP, .543 SLG, .881 OPS, 199 K, 81 BB Votto [151 Games] .297 BA, .368 OBP, .506 SLG, .874 OPS, 102 K, 59 BB how am I delusionalBy aaron mundy
October 21, 2008 4:41 AM | Link to this
I’ve watched a lot of the reds at least 400 games over the pass 3 years. This past year had me excited. However Volquez is not left handed and cannot be like hamels, votto will not hit 50 hrs and bat .240 like howard, he may hit 320 and 30 dingers. Phillips is not the same kind of player as Utley but can make an equivalent production. Victorino changes games with his speed in ways bruce will never be able to. Coco will never post numbers like lidge’s b/c the reds defense is too faulty to allow him a perfect season, AND in no way possible will gonzalez ever produce like rollins, he will never lead off his defense may keep him on this team, but if he even starts at shortstop the season will be shaky until we can get a consistent 7 hitter out of SS. We need a veteran catcher with a strong arm who can call a great game. The reds will bat their catcher in the 8 hole every game like they have been and waste the spot hoping they c an just get that 3rd out of the inning so the pitcher doesnt have to lead off. If Volquez stays true to form and Harang can rebound, expect decent production from Arroyo ie 8-10 wins and less than 15 losses. Cueto is the man whom are season will ride on. Just win 2 out of every 3 series and try not to get swept. Key to the reds success.By Mike
October 20, 2008 5:57 PM | Link to this
EE can stay with his production and defense being similar to Dunn’s because EE is delivering his stats at a small % of the cost of Dunn. I liked Dunn but not at $15 million a year so trading him was good. I’m not so high on EE but at $450,000, he is fine. We can take the other 14+ million and sign the 4 other players needed and perhaps EE will improve and be another Aramis Ramirez.By crosley
October 20, 2008 4:03 PM | Link to this
The Reds really don’t have much tradable commodity. Bailey and shortstop surplus like Janish and Valaika would be the most attractive to other teams. I’d give EE one more year due to his age and righthand power. Bailey is expendable due to the Owings, Ramirez and Thompson. I’m still proposing either Bailey and Janish for Ramon Hernandez of the Orioles or Bailey for Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the rangers who would platoon with Hanigan.By timb
October 20, 2008 3:02 PM | Link to this
Bobs: I love them both. First, as mentioned on these pages countless times, Aramis Ramirez could have killed people with his glove when he was in Pittsburgh. Over the years, he became a much more steady fielder. EE has the same problems: he makes mistakes on the routine plays. When he is just reacting, however, he is wonderful. His defense will improve. With that said, the difference between he and my beloved Dunn is about 12 million dollars. EE was tied for sixth in the NL among third basemen and sixth in OPS. For the Reds, that’s pretty good production. If you think having some great defensive player at third means the Reds will win in 2009, then I respectfully submit, you are mistaken. This team needs offense and a re-made bullpen to break .500 next year. To all, is it official, then, that the next player Reds’ fans attempt to run out of town is EE? I just want to stay current and all…By timb
October 20, 2008 2:51 PM | Link to this
To Barry: Howard walks 100 times a year (not this one, though) and has a higher OBP and slugging average. Votto is no where near the hitter Howard is and Batting average is a poor stat to evaluate a hitter anyway.By bobs
October 20, 2008 1:28 PM | Link to this
For those who hated Dunn, but want to keep EE….whats the difference? Dunn hits lots of HR, cant hit anything else, strikes out a bunch, bad defense. EE hits a decent amount of HR’s, barely hits anything else, strikes out a bunch,and plays terrible defense. So, why would anyone want EE? EE had 5 more total hits then Dunn, .15 better batting average, 61 less walks, 14 less homers, and a less on base average. For those that killed Dunn (which is fine), how can you say you want EE? Numbers wise, it does not make sense.By Bubba
October 20, 2008 11:46 AM | Link to this
Your dreaming, but I like the dream. Let’s remember Sweet Lou left Tampa saying they could never win there. We all see how that worked out. Go Reds in ‘09.By Barry
October 20, 2008 8:48 AM | Link to this
Howard hit .251 this season and .268 last year, Votto hit .297 This year. I think that would constitute being a better Hitter, Votto does not nor will not have the power to hit 40 HR’s, but he has a better Batting Average, plus that is not even bringing up Howards Strikeouts.By Barry
October 20, 2008 8:47 AM | Link to this
Howard hit .251 this season and .268 last year, Votto hit .297 This year. I think that would constitute being a better Hitter, Votto does not nor will not have the power to hit 40 HR’s, but he has a better Batting Average, plus that is not even brining up Howards Strikeouts.By Tyler
October 20, 2008 12:05 AM | Link to this
You know its funny. I live in philadelphia and I heard the same things many of these Reds fans are saying. Phils fans said the exact same things about Charlie Manuel.. that he couldn’t coach and couldn’t lead his team anywhere. Look what happened. Sure Dusty makes some moves that people question.. is there a manager in all of baseball who isn’t questioned routinely? Best managers in baseball get the same treatment. Joe Torre was practically run out of New York. Bobby Cox is questioned by the few Atlanta fans who actually pretend to care about baseball. I follow the Reds and the Phils very closely and I completly agree with Hal in that these two teams are very similar. Call me crazy but I really do believe that the core of Votto, Bruce, Phillips are very much likes those Phillies. I think the Reds could without question be a darkhouse in 09By MarkS
October 19, 2008 10:06 PM | Link to this
I agree with the notion that the Reds need a proven hitter to be a presence in the line-up between Votto and Bruce. I disagree that it needs to be a big time power guy. Bruce’s number projected over a full season come to about 30 homers, Votto and Phillips will both be between 25 and 30 homers. That’s good power. I think it’s better to have someone who’s a pro hitter, who can work counts and hit under pressure….power or not.By Y-City Jim
October 19, 2008 9:24 PM | Link to this
Encarnacion’s career numbers are well ahead of Phillips. Edwin has a far better OBP and OPS+.By Mike
October 19, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this
The Reds have good pitching and they have one good RH hitter in Phillips and two good LH hitters in Votto and Bruce … EE is a hack at 3B and is not a big run producer despite his home runs but since he is RH, young and cheap, we need to play him. The remainder of the starting 8 is wide open which means the Reds need a leadoff hitter who can play either SS, CF, LF or Catcher - the Reds also need a RH power hitter … Freel, Hopper, Keppinger and Cabrera are not everyday players … Hairston might be though at SS but if we can find someone else, he would also be a role player. Dusty will be around for 2 more years so we need to get the team set this year and next, wait for his contract to run out and hopefully have all the young players hit their stride in 2001 - Dusty has been wrong for this young team since the day it was announced as he only wanted to manage to get the Cubs out of his system. He is soooo wrong for these young guys, you just wonder if Walt has the authority to fire him over the winter.By ShockMonkey
October 19, 2008 12:10 PM | Link to this
You’re dreaming Hal because we need a manager first and foremost. Dusty has no clue.By Tim
October 19, 2008 8:27 AM | Link to this
The Reds need two more components to be legit. 1) A right-handed, veteran bat to hit between Bruce & Votto. A guy who can be a role model and clubhouse leader for these kids. A manager. This team will forever underachieve with Dusty at the helm.By Troy Guthrie
October 18, 2008 7:38 PM | Link to this
Never want to disrespect what Hal McCoy says or ponders, but I don’t think this team will EVER win with Dusty Baker at the helm. He doesn’t motivate veterans and allows young guys to become unmotivated veterans. His hiring was on of those things this organization does that defy logic and those type of things just seem to go on and on and on and on and on and on…By Deaner
October 18, 2008 11:18 AM | Link to this
I love the optimism Hal but our players just are fundamentally sound enough yet.By crosley
October 18, 2008 11:10 AM | Link to this
If the Reds are really serious about competing I’m saying they should go after Ramon Hernandez of the Orioles—he is pricey $8m for next year but relatively young at 32 and Matt Wieters is knocking on the door in Baltimore. The Orioles have no shortstop and maybe they would take a package of Janish and Freel.By todcon1
October 18, 2008 8:24 AM | Link to this
Well, it is baseball, so you just never know.By Redfuture
October 17, 2008 10:27 PM | Link to this
The dream would have a better chance if we wake up in the shower, like Bobby Ewing, and find out that Dusty really wasn’t hired as manager last year! Even so, I think the young Reds have enough talent to do it. Why else would I hang out on these blogs at times, certainly not because I’m pessimistic. I think Votto is going to be a good RBI man next year. The Reds havn’t had one in a long time. I recommend acquiring Franceour for the RH bat in the OF, mostly to allow BP and EE to bat 2nd & 6th respectively. I think one of the most interesting developments will be Owings. Will he be able to pitch the way he started out last year? If he can’t attain that status will he shift to the OF? Looks like he has the ability to hit MLB pitching right now.By Mike-Cinci
October 17, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this
The Reds will go as far as their pitching will take them. Harang needs a comeback year. The bullpen needs to be at least maintained but hopefully improved. They need a catcher, a decision on someone at shortstop, and 2 outfielders. They could be better in 2009 but they won’t catch the Cubs, Brewers, Cards, or Astros until they get a few more very good players out of the farm system. It will take 3-4 years assuming those players are already signed and progressing. I fear there is not enough talent yet. They will need 2 or 3 more years of a good amateur drafts. It is painful to wait but the only way a small market team can win is through excellent player development. Teams like the Reds can’t blow their first round picks. The bonus money has to be spent wisely. The Reds have not done that very well over the past 10-15 years and it has shown up in the last 8 losing seasons. The Reds are closer to the Pirates than to the top teams in the division. Just look at the won/lost record. The results speak for themselves.By Mike
October 17, 2008 8:24 PM | Link to this
Reds’ fans need to quit comparing their one and two year players to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Hal needs to quit writing about the Reds being able to compete in 2009. They have the wrong manager, hitting and pitching coach to win - Walt can’t fire them in 2009 so he has to wait until they are lousy again and then we start all over for 2010. We have about $30 million to play with and Pudge and Manny are not the answers. Manny only tried the last two months to get a four year $80 million deal and the Reds should not be suckered into his antics. Pudge showed he is not a team changer when he went to the Yankees and Pettite refused to have him as his catcher. The Reds pitching is pretty good but they need a LF, CF, 3B (EE is not the answer) and SS and the Reds track record does not bode well for filling these spots with quality players. Plus Baker et al are the wrong field management for this young team.By HuberTucky
October 17, 2008 6:55 PM | Link to this
Right on, Harold! Agree about getting a big name catcher for at least 1 year. And I was chanting the Leo Mazzone mantra early in the 2008 season, May, in fact…it seemed overtly obvious that Dick Pole was way less than effective (with THAT name it’s little wonder)and Mazzone is a proven winner (190-2005 with the Braves) AND was available AND bored, restless and wants back into baseball! Same thoughts about a hitting coach Jacoby. Plus, look how the team perked up when Eric Davis was hanging with them! The Reds could do SO much better than their current C-/D+ staff. We’ll see how serious ownership is and exactly WHAT they meant in that BS letter sent to the fans, huh!By Harold Rock
October 17, 2008 6:33 PM | Link to this
Reds Need pitching coach: Why not Leo Mesoni, Reds need batting coach: Why not Jim Rice/Eddie Murray. No young catchers available why not try to get Pudge Rodriguez at a high price for a yr or so or one of the Molina brothers. Then invest some real money in a good scouting crew, do much better job scouting the availability of talentin OH/IN/KY/WV/TN areasBy Harold Rock
October 17, 2008 6:32 PM | Link to this
Reds Need pitching coach: Why not Leo Mesoni, Reds need batting coach: Why not Jim Rice/Eddie Murray. No young catchers available why not try to get Pudge Rodriguez at a high price for a yr or so or one of the Molina brothers. Then invest some real money in a good scouting crew, do much better job scouting the availability of talentin OH/IN/KY/WV/TN areasBy timb
October 17, 2008 10:33 AM | Link to this
Agreed, Mike. Fans tend to over-rate their players. Votto is 24. At 24, Howard was still in the minors. His rookie year at 25, he hit 22 homers (Votto hit 24). At 26 he hit 58! Let me concede, Votto won’t do that. But, he could play the role Howard plays (of dangerous left-handed power). Howard is a monster and I don’t see Votto ever attaining Howard stature, the Reds just need him to be good, not great.By Mike
October 17, 2008 9:32 AM | Link to this
Barry wrote this - Votto is a better hitter with less power than Howard, so that is a Maybe. Wow - Reds’ fans are truly delusional.By bill
October 17, 2008 9:08 AM | Link to this
Hal, you are getting thses Reds fans’ hopes up again only to suffer again when the Reds finish at the bottom, 15 games under .500 .By Barry
October 17, 2008 7:51 AM | Link to this
Yes I think Volquez can be Hammels. Yes I think Phillips can be Utley. Votto is a better hitter with less power than Howard, so that is a Maybe. Yes Jay Bruce can be Shane Victorino, maybe better. Yes Cordoreo could be Lidge. But no way is Gonzalez anything near Rollins, he maybe close with the glove, but other than that you are trying to take an average player and compare him to a superstar player, it doesn’t work, granted I won’t say that the Reds can make up for their differences in other areas, but Rollins is a huge reason why The Reds won’t be like the Phillies.By Nathan from Richmond
October 17, 2008 1:14 AM | Link to this
I think you are right on, in one respect, Arizona Pat. The Reds will only go as far as their starting pitching takes them. BUT, they do need to address the lineup and think about creative ways to have more flow than ebb, if you know what I mean. The roster has been mismanaged and dreadfully put together for years and what you end up with is a team in shambles, can’t play defense and continues to rely on the homerun when there are no homerun hitters. I would love nothing more than for the Reds to make a run next year, it is something near to my heart and I am lost without baseball in the offseason. I don’t see the Reds being the Phillies of ‘09 because of ?’s at SS, CF, LF, C and STILL pitching. I believe in Jocketty but I also believed in everyone else. Get it done and make Cincinnati proud of something again.By CT FAN
October 16, 2008 11:35 PM | Link to this
Hal,I agree the reds are close to the Phils,(except catcher)and more importantly team chemistry. No I’ve never been in either clubhouse;it’s a feeling you get watching them play.The reds were better at the end of the season,when most of the kids from louisville were playing;Coinsidence?By CT FAN
October 16, 2008 11:34 PM | Link to this
Hal,I agree the reds are close to the Phils,(except catcher)and more importantly team chemistry. No I’ve never been in either clubhouse;it’s a feeling you get watching them play.The reds were better at the end of the season,when most of the kids from louisville were playing;Coinsidence?By Wizard
October 16, 2008 10:05 PM | Link to this
Oh, and hire Larry!By Wizard
October 16, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this
I don’t understand the frantic call for one guy to solve the power need.It isn’t about power—it’s about pitching. If Harang rebounds,and Arroyo starts the season with his head in the game—the power hitter is a whole lot less necessary. I see enough homeruns already available—provided we have good pitching.Dickerson/Bruce/Votto/EE and BP provide plenty of extra base and homerun power.Give me better pitching any day!By Harry Pavlidis
October 16, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this
Hal, you’re dreaming. Several of the Phillies you list had several solid years before it came together for a team. Maybe the 2011 Reds can do it.By Jimmy
October 16, 2008 7:51 PM | Link to this
I think the Reds can do good things next season. I wasnt really sold on the reds this year, even in sprng training. The trades of Griffey and Dunn were needed. I like the pitching rotation. Patterson should be dumped and we need a centerfielder with speed as well to replace him. By the way Ramirez is a free agent he would look nice in right field, giving us a solid four hitter with power. I say quit being cheap and pay him what he wants, bring him to Cincinnati. That would be a huge difference. We need one or two more arms in the bullpen. I like our chances next year especially if we are aggressive after a solid right handed hitter..Hint hint MannyBy James
October 16, 2008 6:09 PM | Link to this
Reds pitching going into next year is much better than what the Phillies are sending out there right now. Hitting, as many have pointed out, is way behind the Phils. However, Votto looks like a star and should progress even more next year. I expect BP to be more consistent next year and be more of the 07 player we loved (and is WAY WAY better defensively than Utley). Bruce could break out next year and be a superstar (or conversely become a dudd). Reds bullpen was third best in the NL this year and should get even better next year, assuming the Reds can bring in comparables or sign their own players. I know everyone wants to be negative because of the eight straight years, but the future is better looking than it probably has since the 70’s kids…By Mike
October 16, 2008 5:12 PM | Link to this
Dunn…the Reds certainly don’t need!By timb
October 16, 2008 3:33 PM | Link to this
bobs, Is edwin going somewhere? Seems to he’s a bit superior to the ghost of Pedro Feliz. The reds need upgrades in LF (or first if they move Votto) and CF. Third base is in capable hands for at lease this next season. Walt also needs to re-build the bullpen (by either signing his free agents or signing others) and another starter would be nice too. Statisical analysis tells us that the year after a pitcher breaks through he tends to be less effective (injury, adjustments, tired arm, etc). Cole Hammels is an example, as is Brandon Webb. Counting on Cueto and Volquez to give 200 innings is a mistake and it would nice to add one more fourth starter. Otherwise, I love BP, but comparing him to Chase Utley is just crazy, Hal. Chase has an OBP high than Ryan Howard’s weight (not higher, I would suspect, than Prince Fielder’s weight, because that dude is Charlie Kerfeld with a bat!). About the only comparison I see is Bronson Arroyo as Jamie Moyer. The Reds are two years away if everyone stays healthy AND Walt makes the right moves…..that’s a huge if. Lastly, I will once again suggest Juan Rivera as a cheap(er) solution in LF. Read this comment, Hal, and tell Walt to do it or you’ll write bad stuff about himBy Y-City Jim
October 16, 2008 3:26 PM | Link to this
The Reds have to answer some serious questions offensively before being able to compete next year. Even with continued improvement in the pitching, there is just not enough run production with the present personnel. There has to be a serious improvement in the execution of the fundamentals as well. That’s why I am so surprised that there were no coaching changes.By bobs
October 16, 2008 2:16 PM | Link to this
Hal, yes you are being silly. This team needs immediate upgrades at LF, 3rd, and CF. Where do you find them? Question for the Adam Dunn haters, was it just him or was it the Dunn/Griffey combo? Just trying to think of a player that will provide the mandatory power in these Smallpark. Would it make a difference if the Reds find a right handed power hitting 3rd or CF…or just completely tired of his act? Not sure of the answer myself, but we certainly need to find some power and not sure where it would come from.By Scotty J in WV
October 16, 2008 1:41 PM | Link to this
You’re not dreaming, Hal. The Reds have plenty of young talent. Talent enough to make the post season. That’s why a lot of pundits picked the Reds this season to go to the playoffs. Putting it together is the key. Having a player step up and be a leader will be the key. Will it be someone they already have, or do they need to go get one? That’s the 64K question.By Steve83
October 16, 2008 11:57 AM | Link to this
Yes, the Reds can do it.By Larry
October 16, 2008 11:32 AM | Link to this
The only way they could be in the play off’s would be to hire me as Dusty’s number one scout!By Wizard
October 16, 2008 10:58 AM | Link to this
Arizona Pat:You got it right—mark it down, folks—THE REDS WILL BE IN THE PLAYOFFS—next baseball season!By M Clark
October 16, 2008 10:51 AM | Link to this
Hal, Can Edison Volquez be Cole Hamels? Perhaps but let’s see how EV does in 2009. Can Brandon Phillips be Chase Utley? Yes … close to him at least. Can Joey Votto be Ryan Howard. Not even close on power, defense, run production Can Jay Bruce be Shane Victorino. Bruce will be a lot better than Victorino … in 2010. Can Francisco Cordero be Brad Lidge? No and he doesn’t have to be either. Can Alex Gonzalez be Jimmy Rollins? You’ve got to be kidding!! You drinking some Scotch Hal? Gonzalez should be released and Rollins was the 2007 MVP. Hal - you left out the most important piece, the Phillies have a real manager and the Reds have BakerBy AP-FLORIDA
October 16, 2008 10:51 AM | Link to this
Hal, Any truth to rumor that the Reds are contemplating making Adam Dunn an offer??By DALE 78
October 16, 2008 10:49 AM | Link to this
Idonot know .We have to have a bounce back season by Harang ,better hitting in the clutch .We also need an upgrade at third a center fielder a lead off hitter and a shortstop who can play all year .By sparky
October 16, 2008 10:27 AM | Link to this
The Reds can be the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates-as usual….By Larry
October 16, 2008 10:16 AM | Link to this
Having 1 or 2 guys step up to the level of their Philly counterparts is possible - but 6 or 7 is a stretch. A quality catcher is a must, but the Reds have to spend that Griffey/Dunn savings on a RH power bat, preferably at LF or 3B, and a quality LH starting pitcher.By michael
October 16, 2008 9:38 AM | Link to this
uh…No. The Reds don’t have a spark plug like Jimmy Rollins to lead them, and they don’t have a “great Player” like Chase Utley. They will have to fill the voids with a CF and a Catcher, and I also think we need a SS.By Pete
October 16, 2008 7:58 AM | Link to this
Hal, The EZ & correct answer to all of your questions is NO. & I’ll go on record today, stating for next season what I did in Spring Training this year — the Reds will not finish @ or above .500 next season. Hope I’m wrong!By AP-FLORIDA
October 16, 2008 7:19 AM | Link to this
Hal, you’re dreaming…As Huber said “All the same coaches” We’ll need to make some great changes in personnel to overcome that!!! But we can hope…and pray..Have fun in Cancun!!!!!By MAC
October 16, 2008 2:30 AM | Link to this
Well, I’d luv to see it, but I just don’t see things magically getting better w/out making some significant changes. Overall, the team doesn’t play smart baseball: Def allows almost 1 un-earned run a game & hitting is still very poor in the clutch. C, SS, CF need significant improvement & everyone else needs to improve @ least 10% IMO. What’s the chance all that happens before next year?By HuberTucky
October 16, 2008 2:08 AM | Link to this
P.S. Sorry, Hal, I forgot two things. Gillick is in his final days with the Phils. Announcer said tonight that he was retiring from baseball and had already cleaned out his office, that he’d been in baseball 51 years and started at USC as a pitcher. He brought winners everywhere he went, Seattle, Baltimore, Philly, and built the Blue Jays from scratch and won the series with them (he was GM from ‘77 to ‘94). Also, I LOVED Cancun…one of the most beautiful beaches I ever saw and the water, wow! (That was early 80s). have great trip. You deserve a nice restful cigar-filled getaway (with no baseball and no writing).By HuberTucky
October 16, 2008 1:59 AM | Link to this
Hal, your question, “Can the Reds be the 2009 Phillies?” is an interesting one. Gut reaction? No way! Then again, we’ll see who Wlat deals for and deals away this winter. Could be interesting. But the big issue wil be chemistry. Can this team get the chemistry of a D Rays or Phils? Is Dusty the right guy? The fact that they’ll have all the same coaches is discouraging to me and answers the question again, NO!By Arizona Pat
October 16, 2008 12:59 AM | Link to this
the reds will go as far as Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo and Owings will take them. I think they have the potential to win 90+ games next year.