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Hall of Fame baseball writer Hal McCoy has retired from the Dayton Daily News after covering the Cincinnati Reds for 37 years. Hal's blog, though, will continue to be a must-read for Reds fans. He'll share his thoughts on the team this season and will file updates from Great American Ball Park. You also can catch Hal in print every Sunday in his popular Ask Hal columnHome > Blogs > The Real McCoy | Cincinnati Reds baseball news > Archives > 2009 > September > 29 > Entry
A peek at the future? (maybe, maybe)
THERE WAS A snapshot Tuesday of what the Cincinnati Reds hope is a big, big part of their future — photos of Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce.
If the Reds are to improve in 2010, if they are to finally shake the anvil weight of nine straight years of losing, Bailey and Bruce must be a big part of it next year.
And as the sun sets on this season, both are giving quick views of what could be a mangificent photograph next year.
Bruce and Bailey were the main operatives in a 7-2 mauling of division-champion St. Louis in Great American Ball Park.
Bruce hit two home runs and produced a career-best five RBIs, giving him 22 home runs in 330 at-bats.
The beneficiary was Bailey and he breezed to his seventh victory, holding the Cardinals to one run and seven hits over seven innings while striking out seven and walking only one.
There was a defining moment for Bailey in this game and it came in the fifth inning with the Reds leading, 4-0. The Cardinals had the bases loaded with one out and Albert Pujols was the batter, owner of five grand slams in 15 bases loaded at bats this year.
Conventional wisdom? Walk the guy and pitch to Matt Holliday.
But they pitched to Pujols and he nearly did it again, driving one to the center field warning track that Willy Taveras caught, a sacrifice fly for one run instead of a home run for four.
“I knew he got under a little bit, but it was still kinda scary in this ballpark,” said Bailey. “How do I approach it? Take a step back, slow the game down, walk around a bit, then look at the glove and throw it as hard as you can.”
Said Baker, “That was big for him to get out of that inning with the dangerous Albert Pujols up there. Albert has been known to make it 4-4, so we’ll take that sacrifice fly.
“Homer is now pitching like he belongs here and he believes he belongs here,” Baker added. “In the past he might not have got out of that Pujols situation, trying to give up nothing and giving up a lot. That’s damage control right there and that’s a big lesson in itself.”
What buoys Baker is the recent progress of the two former No. 1 draft picks, Bruce and Bailey, and what it might mean for next season.
“We drafted them to build on top of them,” said Baker. “Those guys don’t have to prove anything to me. They only have to prove things to God, family and themselves because you can’t fool those three entities.”
Baker said Bruce’s approach to hitting has changed since he came off the disabled list September 13, “Because he is taking pitches that he was swinging at. You see him staying off bad pitches. The key to hitting is hitting high-quality, high-percentage pitches.”
Bruce clubbed three-run homer in the second on a 3-and-1 pitch and crushed a two-run homer in the sixth on a 2-and-2 pitch.
“Bruce stayed off a couple of tough pitches to get to 3-and-1 before he hit the pitch for his first home run,” said Baker. “He’s not out of the woods, but he has come a long way.”
Bruce watched everybody play for eight weeks while his fractured wrist recovered and he learned a few things.
“That’s going to be the biggest thing for me, from Day One, swinging at good pitches,” said Bruce. “Before I broke my hand, it was obvious I was swinging at bad pitches.”
How did it change?
Bruce went into a detailed explanation about how stopped double tapping in his swing, something he noticed that San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez quit doing, too. Simply put, he adjusted his footwork and keeps his feet planted more.
“It gives me more time to see the ball and make decisions,” he said. “That’s the biggest thing. It is hard enough to hit so you need to give yourself as much time as you can.”
And it appears the time for Bruce and Bailey is upon them, with next year the teller of the tale.
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By jim t
October 1, 2009 1:33 PM | Link to this
Jack, BP is not your best 2 hole hitter or 3 hole hitter 3 belongs to Votto. BP’s career OBP is 317. You would also see that BP is a better 4 hole hitter than Bruce and Rolen at the respected stages of their careers. Rolen hasn’t hit 20 hrs but once since 2005. His Obp is 370 for his career. Compare that to BP. Also I will bet you a 6 pack that Cordero is with the reds next year. I drink Bud light by the way.I don’t think they will sign Hernandez but I am hoping I’m wrong.The thought of Votto hitting 320 with BP hitting behind him excites me.Idealy I would agree with you that BP and Rolen are not Idealy suited for the 2 hole Or bp suited for the 4 hole but on this team he is the best option. If CD and Stubbs are not on the field at the same time Rolen is the best option.All that said the only way that works is if Bruce develops into the type hitter that can protect BP. That might explain why Dusty is forced to try Janish in the 2 hole. I don’t think its a coincidence that BP is hitting better since Rolen is hitting behind him. Bruce will have to offer that same protection. Hannigan or Janish will not strike fear into the hearts of many pitchers. Also batting Stubbs 2 is not a good idea. As was mention last night on the air one thought surrounding Stubbs success is he is being aggressive much earlier in the count, a 2 hole hitter must be patient and hit deep in the count to give the leadoff hitter a chance to steal.It would seem to me CD fits that better if he is in LF.Plus Stubbs is a much better base runner than CD.I don’t think CD will be the starter though.I think Francisco or Gomes or a combination of both will man LF next year.
By Wiz
October 1, 2009 12:18 PM | Link to this
I agree with Jack about the top: Dickerson/Stubbs/Votto/Bruce/Rolen/Phillips/Hanigan or Hernandez/Janish
By Rob
October 1, 2009 12:13 PM | Link to this
Hal, What do you think about Duncan claiming Arroyo was using pine tar last night? http://www.stltoday.comstltodaysportsstories.nsfcardinalsstory2DE2EA84A70D00BD8625764200139BFC?OpenDocument
By Jack
October 1, 2009 11:32 AM | Link to this
Jim, if you think the Reds are spending money you are living in a fantasy world. Have to be happy with what you have and hope the young guys produce. The Reds should be able to dump Cordero, but that money will just be spent on the guys who are getting raises. No money made this year means no extra money to spend before the season. The thought of Phillips sitting dead red in front of Votto excites me. Like Larkin back in the day, Phillips is probably your best 2,3,4 and 5 hitter. Why not put speed and power up top? You will have to be content with 1-6 producing runs. Hopefully Jocketty has learned that small ball does not work in this ball park, but a mixture of the two could. Votto could have a monster year if two guys are constantly on…as opposed to have WT and Gonzo in front.
By SteveG
October 1, 2009 10:46 AM | Link to this
Hal, just read your blod for the umpteenth time this baseball season. I’m going to miss you. Baseball fans everywhere are going to miss you. You are a true treasure to baseball. Any chance you’ll change your mind?
By jim t
October 1, 2009 10:23 AM | Link to this
Mike-cinci, another thought Rolen’s OBP for his career is 370,he has1 20 hr season since 2005. BP’s career OBP is 317 and his RBI and HR total far excede Scotts. If you want a guy who handles the bat and hits deep in the count I suggest Rolen. On this team he is a better option than BP.
By jim t
October 1, 2009 9:56 AM | Link to this
Mike-cinci, still have to disagree with you. BP is not a guy who likes to hit deep in the count and if you check he does hit into a lot of DP’s. A huge part of batting 2 is being able to take a pitch and give him a chance to run. Rolen while not as fast works the pitcher. Your suggestion of changing Bp and cutting down his swing will serve What? He is hitting 280 with 20 bombs and drives in a 100 RBI’s. Why does he need to cut his swing down. If Bruce gives me that and his defense I will be happy and we may be going to the playoffs.With Rolen’s age and injury history he will not be approaching those numbers. He will handle the bat,play great D, hit deep in the count and go the other way when neccessary. Will he steal bases no.Now if they get some one else to hit 4th I move BP down not up. I like how he delivers with runners on and his power. As for trading Arroyo,harrang or codero it ain’t happening until the All Star break. Only then if we are out of the race. We do agree that this team needs Hernandez and also that it is not likely to happen.Also if the reds are in the hunt I think Attendence is going to go up. The stock market is rising. Many Financial analyst are saying the recession is over.Not only that but there will be plenty of time to dump salary at the break.Gomes will be back. Wiz, Hannigan is not a everyday catcher.This club could carry Janish if all the rest hit but not both.CD will not be in CF next year. Stubbs is the better player and he is younger and not injury prone.It is my contention that eventually he will steal more bases,hit more hr’s,have a higer BA and is a better fielder.He is also faster.CD is a spare outfielder on this team and Hannigan is a backup catcher. Sorry we can’t agree but I love the debate.
By Mike+Cinci
October 1, 2009 8:26 AM | Link to this
I still don’t think the Reds have good #1 or #2 hitters in the lineup. Stubbs is looking good and he could be wonderful if he cuts down on K’s. He has great speed. I put Phillips at #2 only because I don’t think he fits as a #4 batter. Maybe at #2 he would cut down on his swing a bit. I agree he is not perfect there either. A Stubbs/Phillips combo at the top of the lineup would give the Reds speed and Phillps would see a lot of fastballs with Stubbs on base. Rolen is slow and will likely be a double play possibility to often in the #2 spot. Wiz asks the right questions on the catcher spot. To be honest I don’t think Gomes is good enough to be an everyday player but he is a very useful guy on the team. Gomes won’t cost much. Keeping him is OK. My guess is Hernandez will take the buy out and see what he can get on the free agent market though the Reds might be able to keep him for half what they paid him this year. It would still be more than this team can afford to pay. I love Hanigan’s defense. He is a major league player behind the plate. Unfortunately his hitting is weak and will be worse if asked to catch a full load of games. Corky Miller was almost out of baseball and will be lucky to hit .190. Unfortunately Hanigan and Miller may be the best catching option the Reds have at this time. Regarding a trade, given the financial situation and the liklihood attendance will decline in 2010, the Reds would benefit from unloading one of their $11 million dollar pitchers for less expensive talent. I don’t see them having much of a choice here. Given the revenue potential the Reds will won’t be able to afford more than a $65-$70 million payroll if that. Somebody will have to go.
By Wiz
September 30, 2009 9:28 PM | Link to this
Sorry, I may have missed part of the Ramon/Hanigan dialogue-haven’t read it all yet-but I do have an opinion. I’d rather put money into Gomes than Hernandez. Would it be correct to assume he will be less expensive? I personally like Hanigan catching everyday-because of his throw out ratio/defense in blocking pitches in the dirt{he’s very active back there}/and seems to be calling good games/I think more Pitchers than Arroyo are comfortable with him. I believe his defense is far and away better than RH; and I’d rather put more stock into defense at catcher, than offense, if a choice has to be made. That said, who is to say that giving Hanigan the job, with Miller backing him up, would not, eventually, produce better offensive numbers from them both? Good defensive backstops with the abilities of Hanigan are hard to find. Also,I believe Stubbs may prove to have very good power; and have thought that regardless of where Stubbs and CD play-if they are both in the lineup, I would think Stubbs would be a good #2 hitter, because of his great speed, and being tough to double, hitting behind CD leading off.I still hope they work with both players in ST, on learning to drag bunt-That could create havoc for opposing defenses, every night.Pardon my interruption of your conversation; I’d be interested in your’s and others thoughts.
By Alex
September 30, 2009 5:43 PM | Link to this
Hal McCoy patiently answered my questions on the night before Pete Rose got his record hit as a younger much drunker version of me watched him put together his story in the press box. Hal McCoy had time for me even on a deadline, and I will never forget that. Peace to you, sir.
By jim t
September 30, 2009 3:48 PM | Link to this
Mike-Cinci, Mike I don’t take a guy like BP with a 280 avg,20 hrs,95-100 rbi and turn him into a bunt,hit behind, work a walk kind of a hitter. Rolen is losing power and doesn,t provide Joey near the protection BP does.I agree Rolen doesn’t fit the ideal type but he is a professional hitter who will do what the team needs. I agree not ideal but in my opinion the better of two evils so to speak.Also they won’t be trading any pitching at least until the all star break.If they are in the race they will try to upgrade if not fire sale. This is taking into account the guys they will have at Louisville and the kind of money bob will have to tie up to contend in 2010.If we are genuinely in the race and the economy picks up it is doable. In my opinion the reason the reds are winning now is because of some defined roles and some consistency at the top of the line up but most of all great pitching and defense. If you rememmber when the reds were at there best this year Wily T was hitting over 300 and OBP was 350. that was 6 games over. Pitching was top three then votto went down, Bruce began to press, pitching went south and so did the season. Since the arrival of stubbs and rolen coupled with Bailey and arroyo being outstanding the club is playing great.As Arroyo said, ealier they have until the all star break 2010 to show they deserve a chance to compete as a team. If healthy and the pitching holds up it will be interesting.If not fire sale time.
By Mike-Cinci
September 30, 2009 3:20 PM | Link to this
Votto has to play everyday. He hits lefties. Francisco has to play a lot or he is better off at Louisville. A Gomes/Francisco platoon in LF will be OK as will a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon in CF. Reds lose some defense in LF which is a negative. If someone dominates then play him everyday. I would try to keep Hernandez but I suspect it won’t happen. Reds really don’t have a #2 hitter. Rolen does not fit the profile of a #2 hitter. If Janish could hit and be good at run and hit and sacrificing it might work. I’m afraid it won’t but it would be very nice if it did. Here’s my line-up Stubbs/CD, Phillips, Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Gomes/Francisco, Hernandez/Hanigan, Janish. Reds will be able to trade Arroyo, maybe Harang but should do it only only if they get a prospect or a current young player who is ready or nearly ready to play now. Could they get a young catcher or SS for one of these guys? Trading pitching is tough to do as good pitching is so hard to find. This could be 3rd place team if all goes right. 4th or 5th if they don’t.
By jim t
September 30, 2009 3:06 PM | Link to this
Jack, if we have to pay a 1mil dollar buy out tht means he is getting 7.5. I get your point about him staying healthy but hannigan cn play a couple times a week. Just don’t feel like Hannigan is a starting catcher for this team. 10 rbi’s in over 250 at bats is terrible.As I said if Bob wants to win now he needs to bring back Hernandezor find another catcher Hannigan is a back up.
By Jack
September 30, 2009 2:46 PM | Link to this
Jim, with Ramon, you would have to intially pay the buyout. Cant recall the amount, but 1 million? Then he will cost 3-4 million a year? He will be back in the AL where he does not have to catch everyday. It certainly did not make his money this year and really cant be counted on to stay healthy. I like Gomes. I hope we pay some money to bring back Gomes, but I dont see it with Liar Bob at the controls.
By Shane
September 30, 2009 12:47 PM | Link to this
The first change must be to fire Baker.
By BrarHopper
September 30, 2009 11:40 AM | Link to this
Ha ha ha…look at these ex-Reds…Weathers gives up the walk off homer to Inaetta in 11th inning last night of Rockies win over Brewers and Matt Beleise gets the W for the Rocks. LOL. Now as to Baker and CD…Baker HATES CD, it’s so obvious. Of course, Baker IS a complete idiot…go figguh.
By jim t
September 30, 2009 11:34 AM | Link to this
Anyone share my feelings that maybe what happened to Bruce was when Joey,EE and others were either not playing well or on DL he began to press and try to carry the team. This happens to a lot of young players and they develope bad habits. Such as jumping and swinging at bad pitches. they had a excellent stat up lastnight during the telecast about how well joey and Jay play or were playing when each was in the line up at the same time. It was like night and day. Just a thought.
By jim t
September 30, 2009 11:21 AM | Link to this
I don’t think bring back Hernandez or offering Gomes Arbritation wil break the bank. If Bob Wants to win and fill the seats He’ll have to ante up.The fowwowing year he stands to reduce payroll considerablly and save money. Hopefully locking up some of the yungsters.this is what I think Walt is trying to get done. the Farm system is producing, money has been spent in that area its time to start cycling some of that talent through begining next year and 2011.
By jim t
September 30, 2009 11:12 AM | Link to this
a couple of post for you guys to think about. 1st next years team Line up: 1.Stubbs or CD cf 2.Rolen 3rd He is losing some power but handles the bat wel and can get on base. Would do the team first thing in two hole 3.votto 1st 4. BP 20 -25 hrs and 100 rbi’s 5.Bruce 275 30 hr 80-90 rbi’s 6.Platoon Francisco and Gomes LF 7. hernandez, need his bat and Run production. Bob C will have to pony up 8. Janish ss I hope 250 but I’m seeing 225 Bull pen Cordero, massett,Rhodes,Herrera,Burton,long relief/pinch hitter Owings Starters: Bailey, Arroyo,Cueto,Harrang and Maloney. In the wings Wood/jukich/Volquez when healthy. Bench: Sutton and Richar or rosales spare infielders if we can up grade so be it. Wouldn’t want to bring up a prospect to sit the bench so frazier,Vakika,cozart start at AAA. Outfielders: Bruce,Gomes,Stubbs,Dickerso and Francisco. Who ever isn’t starting is pinch hitting. Also Gomes continues to learn 1st base. He started in ST last year, this way he can spell Joey against lefties. Playing gomes this way gets him a lot of at bats against lefties who he kills. Back up catcher Hannigan. Miller can start at AAA, hard to over look how he has handled the staff. They like throwing to him and the numbers back that up.This is 2010. Contract coming of the books in 2011. Harrang,Arroyo,Lincoln,Traveras who you eat in 2010,Hernandez,rolen,Cordero has one more year buy if still effective will be much more marketable with only a year left if you hve to move him. May even have to eat some if not. Waiting in the wings Frazier,heisey,alonzo,Cozart,Wood,Leake. I like what is going on and I think patience is required. NOw Your thoughts
By Wiz
September 30, 2009 11:05 AM | Link to this
“DICKERSON DUE BACK: Outfielder Chris Dickerson (sprained left ankle) probably will be activated from the disabled list sometime this week”, Baker said. “Dickerson probably will be limited to pinch hitting and pinch running through season’s end, Baker said. Dickerson has been on the DL since Aug. 25.” Is CD on Baker’s sh** list, or what? Every other player, including Willy {hit one out of the infield} Taveras, was inserted into the lineup, immediately after coming off the DL! What’s up with ‘pinch running and hitting’ for Dickerson? Same ol’, same ol’!
By Shane
September 30, 2009 8:41 AM | Link to this
Please. Everyone was ready to dump both of these guys to the curb about a month ago. I certainly agree that the Reds should hang on to these guys if everyone can have a little patience with their development. Neither is even 24 years old!
By Steve Greer
September 30, 2009 12:42 AM | Link to this
I have a question for you Hal…. is the reason Johnny Gomes isn’t play everyday due to the leftie vs leftie/rightie vs rightie that Dusty talks about? I agree Bruce should be apart of the Reds in rightfield… great arm and I love Drew Stubbs in center but why isn’t Johnny Gomes the everyday left-fielder? He seems like he has a great work-ethic and hustles….. please explain before you are gone!