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Preview: OSU vs. Minnesota analysis/prediction
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Quarterback
Redshirt freshman Adam Weber was lectured about ball security after throwing his eighth pick. The Gophers probably wish they weren't still reviewing the basics with OSU coming to town. EDGE: OSU.
Extras
Running backs
Chris Wells has appeared fresh in practice this week while dealing with a lingering ankle injury, and the Buckeyes need him to be durable — at least until Brandon Saine returns. EDGE: OSU.
Receivers
OSU sophomore Ray Small is starting to show why he's been compared to Ted Ginn Jr., making foes wish they could tap into that rich Cleveland Glenville High School pipeline. EDGE: OSU.
Offensive line
Minnesota is second in the Big Ten in total yardage with 487.5 yards per game, and the O-line can't be faulted if they're surrounded by guys who handle the ball as if it were a wet bar of soap. EDGE: Even.
Defensive line
The Gophers' Willie VanDeSteeg was a first-team All-Big Ten pick last year, but he doesn't have much help. EDGE: OSU.
Linebackers
OSU's James Laurinaitis is playing on his home soil for the first time in two years, and he probably can expect the same greeting those pro-wrestling villains received while touring with his father. EDGE: OSU.
Defensive backs
The Gophers have been relying on freshmen in the secondary, but they might be more effective if they planted a few scarecrows out there instead. EDGE: OSU.
Special teams
Given their long-snapping issues, the Buckeyes' placekicking would be shaky even if they discovered another year of eligibility for Mike Nugent. EDGE: Even.
Prediction
Ohio State 42, Minnesota 21
Ohio State junior Todd Boeckman has been competent so far in his first year as the starting quarterback, and he may even become Craig Krenzel-like before the season is over, making up for the lack of a big arm with surgical strikes.
But I was a little perplexed to see Boeckman atop the Big Ten passer ratings this week, especially given the monster year Purdue's Curtis Painter is having.
He's racked up 1,290 yards through the air with 16 touchdowns and just one interception while completing 68.7 percent of his passes, while Boeckman has amassed 753 yards with 10 TDs and three interceptions, and is connecting at a 65.9-percent clip.
Given Painter's superiority in every category, how is Boeckman first in passing efficiency? The NCAA formula is too complex to explain, but it essentially rewards the player with the most yards per pass attempt. Painter is getting 7.8 yards per fling, Boeckman 8.9.
But in Purdue's system, a 5-yard pass is the same as an off-tackle run, and Painter shouldn't be penalized for that.
Here's the formula we recommend for gauging passers, one that's universally accepted by fans: TD-interception ratio. It measures a QB's impact regardless of a team's mode of attack, and it doesn't require an army of MIT graduates to figure it out.
— Doug Harris, Staff Writer
