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Preview: OSU vs. Michigan analysis/prediction

By Doug Harris

Staff Writer

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Quarterback

Michigan's Chad Henne has made 45 career starts and holds nearly every school passing record. But he was pulled last week because of a lingering shoulder injury and probably would need a trip to Lourdes to be healthy enough for Ohio State. Edge: OSU

Extras

Running backs

OSU's Chis Wells has a jammed right thumb and gimpy left ankle, but he should consider himself lucky after what Mike Hart has endured. A thigh bruise and ankle sprain have kept the Michigan senior out of three games this season and now possibly a fourth, and the emotional blow of missing his last shot at the Buckeyes would be the greatest pain of all. Edge: OSU

Receivers

OSU has a nice collection of receivers, but they don't cause fear and trepidation in secondaries like the Wolverines' Mario Manningham. Edge: Michigan

Offensive line

Michigan tackle Jake Long is a top-five NFL pick, and center Adam Kraus was a first-team All-Big Ten selection last season.

Edge: Michigan

Defensive line

The Wolverines had to replace almost their entire front seven from last year, and it shows. They're allowing 335 yards per game, nearly 100 more than the Buckeyes. Edge: OSU

Linebackers

Michigan's Shawn Crable is an athletic marvel, having racked up 24 tackles for loss (two short of the school record). The Buckeyes have missed outside LB Ross Homan, who probably is out for the season after undergoing toe surgery, but they still have the best trio in the Big Ten. Edge: OSU

Defensive backs

The Michigan secondary has appeared vulnerable, but some of that stems from a lack of quarterback pressure. The Buckeye DBs found out the hard way against Illinois how much they depend on the play of their front four. Edge: OSU

Special teams

The Wolverines shored up a glaring weakness by handing senior K.C. Lopata the kicking job. He's started the last six games and has made all eight of his field-goal tries. OSU's Ryan Pretorius has been plagued by low kicks, having had three field goals and an extra point blocked this season. Edge: Michigan

Prediction

Ohio State 31, Michigan 17

Ohio State coach Jim Tressel has preached about the importance of winning the turnover margin in big games, but he might have to convince his players to take his word for it.

The Buckeyes have won the last two meetings with Michigan despite losing four fumbles and throwing one interception, and they haven't generated any takeaways against the Wolverines.

"History has said that the team that wins the turnover margin wins the game," linebacker James Laurinaitis said, "and we've gotten lucky and escaped the last two years."

The Buckeyes have 18 turnovers and 18 takeaways this season. And while superior firepower allowed them to lose the turnover battle yet win the war against the Wolverines in 2005 and '06, tempting fate one more time could prove disastrous.

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