DaytonDailyNews.com

When I began covering the Cincinnati Reds in 1973, a scared-shiftless rookie, they were The Big Red Machine, a steamroller of a baseball team that flattened whatever dared get in the way.

I was fortunate to cover nine straight winning teams (what an easy task) — and didn't appreciate it, didn't understand what I was seeing.

It was spice cake and ice cream with sprinkles every day — no spinach, no asparagus.

I took it for granted that this was the way it was now and forevermore — the Reds won; the rest of the teams lost because it was written that way in God's grand plan. I smelled neither the coffee nor the roses along the way.

Then the bubble burst with the brightness of a flash bang, and the stench has nothing to do with coffee beans or flower seeds.

Over the next 27 years, I've covered only 10 winning teams, one .500 team and 16 losers — enough spinach and asparagus to gag a cow. And, of course, this team is working on a string of eight straight losing seasons that are coming in monotonous regularity.

Maybe the recent past has hard-boiled me. But all I can see for the 2009 Reds is a ninth straight losing season, more greens and no dessert.

Before spring training, I thought they hadn't improved much from last season's 74-88 fifth-place team. After watching seven weeks of spring training, I'm convinced. They haven't improved.

All they've shown me is that they probably are once again better than the Pittsburgh Pirates and probably the Houston Astros. After that?

Well, what the Reds obviously are counting on is for every player to have a better season than last year — and how often does that happen?

Everybody talks about the starting rotation, the team's strength. OK, is Aaron Harang not going to lose 17 this year? Is Edinson Volquez going to approach 17 wins again? Can Bronson Arroyo pitch through carpal tunnel syndrome? Can Johnny Cueto do better than 9-14? Can Micah Owings pitch as well as he hits?

My biggest concern, though, is the offense and from where the runs might come. In 15 of their first 32 exhibition games, the Reds scored two or fewer runs and scored only one seven times.

I see the Reds at 77-85 and fourth place. And if they finish above .500, I'll eat more spinach (instead of crow) than Popeye, who they probably could use in left field.