Economists say India’s agriculture, manufacturing and construction sectors are likely to have to have led the April-June rebound. India’s fiscal year begins in April.
New cases of COVID-19 and deaths have dropped sharply from their peaks, and vaccinations have picked up pace. Health experts are warning of another, less deadly surge, but economists say its impact on the economy is likely to be milder.
“High-frequency indicators show that the economy will return to decent sequential growth in the July-September quarter,” said Shuchita Shukla, a research analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.
India, Asia’s third-largest economy, suffered one of the biggest setbacks among major economies in fiscal year 2020-21. Its growth contracted by 7.3%, worsening from a slump that slashed growth to 4% from 8% in the two years before the pandemic hit.