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However, more than 30 percent of the voters say they could change their minds before Tuesday’s election.
If Kasich was taking on Trump one-on-one, the poll shows Kasich winning easily, 55-40. This is further proof that the larger field of candidates is helping Trump win primaries.
“If the poll is accurate, this is good news for the movement against Donald Trump,” said Mark Caleb Smith, director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. “While it is complicated, since there are splits in those opposed to him, it shows that Trump is not running away with Ohio and that there is a chance those who oppose him can keep him away from Ohio’s delegates.”
The poll shows that Kasich leads Trump with moderates (43-39) and with somewhat conservative (39-36) voters.
Trump has big lead with very conservative voters. The poll has Trump at 40 percent with that group, Cruz with 25 percent and Kasich in third with just 23 percent.
“It is possible that some Ohio voters will approach this process rationally and decide to support Kasich as the most viable anti-Trump candidate,” Smith said. “However, if these voters stick to their initial desires, and cast a pure vote, Trump could squeak through. It will be interesting to see how the campaigns handle this kind of information. Does this mean the Rubio and Cruz campaigns will basically unplug from Ohio?”
The poll also shows a big gender gap. Kasich is winning the women vote barely, 36-33 percent, while Trump dominates with men, 42-34 percent.
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