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2 Cruz. He currently trails Trump by just 84 delegates and could cut into the lead with a good night. Three smaller states – Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii – are on the docket, and Cruz will try to capitalize on his wins last week in Kansas and Maine. But polls show him trailing Trump in Mississippi and Idaho and even though Cruz should do well in Hawaii, which is a Cruz-friendly caucus state, only 19 delegates are at stake there.
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3 Trump. Big wins in Michigan and Mississippi, which together have 99 delegates, would give the New York billionaire a huge boost heading into next week's mega-primaries in Ohio, Florida, Illinois and Missouri. In no state are manufacturing losses more acute than in Michigan, so Trump's stance of threatening tariffs against companies that move operations overseas may be resonating there. Will be interesting to see.
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4 Marco Rubio. He's been focusing his efforts on his home state of Florida, and nobody expects him to do well tonight. But calls for Rubio to withdraw are growing more numerous, and another poor showing will reinforce public opinion that he can't win. If Trump emerges stronger after tonight, Rubio could even lose Florida, which could hurt him beyond this race.
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5 Democrats. Although Democrats are getting much less attention during this campaign season, they have two important primaries today in Michigan and Mississippi. Hillary Clinton has won huge victories in the South, which will likely continue tonight, but Michigan, where the two candidates had a spirited debate on Sunday night, is more of a battleground. Clinton already has a big delegate lead, so Sanders needs to send a message that he can compete in a big industrial state like Michigan. A big win for Clinton there may mean Democrats have decided on their candidate.
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