The Flyers have made a habit of playing in the big dance. When they face the Shockers at 7:10 p.m. Friday at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, they will be playing their ninth tournament game in four seasons. In the 27 years prior to the team’s Elite Eight run in 2014, it played seven games in five tournament appearances. This will be Dayton’s 39th game in the tournament. Almost a quarter of its NCAA tournament games have been played in the last four seasons.
Dayton (24-7) doesn’t have a great chance of beating No. 10 seed Wichita State (30-4), according to oddsmakers. They would have an even smaller chance of beating No. 2 seed Kentucky (29-5) in the second round Sunday, assuming the Wildcats beat No. 15 seed Northern Kentucky (24-10) in the second game of the evening session Friday.
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However, that shouldn’t dampen enthusiasm for a team that has made history. Miller seemed intent on enjoying the moment Sunday before preparation for playing Wichita State began. It will be the third matchup between the two programs and the first since the 1962 NIT when Dayton won 79-71.
“I’m proud of them,” Miller said of his players as he talked to the media after the announcement. “I’m happy for them. I’m happy for the fans. But things will change quickly once you turn off the cameras.”
Dayton is a six-point underdog against Wichita State. KenPom.com gives the Flyers a 25 percent chance of winning, far worse odds than any other No. 7 seed.
Here’s why the Shockers are favored:
• They have won 15 games in a row, including three straight in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. It’s the second-longest winning streak in school history.
• They rank eighth in the Pomeroy ratings. Every other team in the top 10 received at least a No. 4 seed. Dayton ranks 36th.
• They have won nine tournament games in the last four seasons, tied for fourth most in the nation during that span.
• They have won at least 30 games four times in the last five seasons.
Here’s why the Shockers got a No. 10 seed:
• They rank 31st in the RPI. Dayton was 28th.
• They have two victories against teams ranked in the top 50 of the RPI, both against Illinois State: 86-45 and 71-51. They have four losses against top-50 teams. Illinois State beat them once. They lost to Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma in non-conference games. Dayton was 4-3 against top-50 teams.
• The Missouri Valley has two teams in the top 50 of the RPI: Wichita State and Illinois State. No other team ranks above 145. Four teams rank below 200.
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Wichita State should fare better in the seeding next season. The NCAA may start using more advanced metrics than the RPI. Until then, they’re stuck with a seed that doesn’t fit their record or their recent history in the tournament. The Shockers ranked 38th on the seed list. Dayton ranked 28th.
"It's all I know," Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall told reporters on Sunday. "I'm just glad (the selection committee) didn't forget about us. I was starting to think they might forget us and not put us in at all."
Wichita State sophomore Markis McDuffie put it in different terms.
“I feel like they kind of did us dirty,” he said.
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Dayton and Wichita State face the danger of slow starts Friday. Neither will have played in more than a week. Rust could be a problem. Dayton played a noon game Friday against Davidson in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals on March 10. Wichita State last played on March 5 against Illinois State in the MVC championship game.
“That’s kind of unfortunate,” Miller said. “What you lose with not having games this time of year is the ability to stay in rhythm. We were in a good groove. We’re not in a good groove right now. But I will tell you we’ll be excited to go to work this week. We’ve got a big week to try to get us ready for Friday night. I think we’re going to play hard. We’ve just got to play really really hard.”
FRIDAY’S GAME
Dayton vs. Wichita State, 7:10 p.m., WHIO Ch. 7, FM 94.7, AM 1290 WHIO
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