Bengals playoff scenarios easy ... and complicated

Explanations don't get any easier than that.

The Bengals actually could be division champs by the time they kick off against the Broncos if Pittsburgh (9-5) loses at Baltimore on Sunday.

The easiest way to look at things for a division title is to see the Bengals' magic number as one. One win or one Pittsburgh loss or tie in the final two weeks will give Cincinnati its second AFC North championship in three years.

The only scenario where the Steelers can win the division is by winning their final two games and having the Bengals lose at Denver and home against Baltimore. That would leave Cincinnati and Pittsburgh tied at 11-5.

The first tiebreaker is head-t0-head meetings, but they split.

The second tiebreaker is division record, but they would both be 4-2.

The third tiebreaker is record in common games, but they would would be 10-4.

The fourth tiebreaker is conference record, but they would both be 8-4.

So it would come down to the fifth tiebreaker, which is Strength of Victory.

SOV involves adding up the win-loss records of every opponent has beaten and seeing which team's foes have the better winning percentage.

At the moment, the teams the Bengals have defeated are a combined 63-91 for .409 SOV. The Steelers' opponents are 69-85 for a .448 SOV.

Because they have some many common opponents (12), it is virtually impossible to envision any scenario where the Bengals could surpass the Steelers in SOV, so Pittsburgh would win the division if they finish tied.

SOV will not come into play if the Bengals and Patriots finish tied for the best record in the AFC.

In tiebreakers involving teams not from the same division, the fourth step is common opponents, of which the Bengals and Patriots have four (Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Denver and Houston). New England went 4-1 in those games, while Cincinnati will be 3-2 (if they get into a tiebreaker scenario at 13-3).

The only way the Bengals can get the No. 1 seed is to win their final two games and have New England lose its final two (at the Jets and at the Dolphins).

If you have tons of free time on your hand and want to play around with the scenarios and can come up with one where the Bengals would leapfrog the Steelers in SOV, by all means go right ahead and let me know what you come up with.

Before you do, however, there is one last scenario to consider where the Bengals could lose to the Broncos and still get a first-round bye. If that happens and the Bengals beat Baltimore in Week 17 and Denver at home to San Diego, Cincinnati would be the No. 2 seed.

Now back to SOV....

Here are the teams the Bengals have beaten:

And here are Pittsburgh's: